Mathematically, Obama has 431 ways to win; Romney has 76; tied college 5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 2012 board would cause me to lose all faith in humanity, if having any faith in humanity is tenable in a post-Holocaust world (and it isn't).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

Like that's gonna change the reality of things!.... All that needs to be looked right now are the swing states and with the Jeep comments in Ohio Romney has shot himself in the foot and Obama is leading there. He is also leading in Florida. If he gets one of those states he's pretty much won anyway so hasta la vista Mitt!

Your disrespect for the religious is very apparent.

As is the disrespect of many so-called religious for God.  As Matthew 6:8 points out, He already knows what we need, therefore telling Him we need specific things done here on Earth is the height of presumption.

[minionofmidas]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

Like that's gonna change the reality of things!

It's the American way of talking about these things. It's not even limited to the Right. You'll get used to it if you stay around.

[opebo]

How many paths for each if we assume Nevada for Obama and North Carolina for Romney, leaving a remainder of seven swing states?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How many paths for each if we assume Nevada for Obama and North Carolina for Romney, leaving a remainder of seven swing states?

128 total: 103 for Obama, 24 for Romney, 1 tie.

[opebo]

How many paths for each if we assume Nevada for Obama and North Carolina for Romney, leaving a remainder of seven swing states?

128 total: 103 for Obama, 24 for Romney, 1 tie.

Yes I see, found it after I posted that, appreciate your reply though..

So, that I think reflects the more 'realistic odds'.. maybe 75% or so chance of Obama victory..

[Ljube]

How many paths for each if we assume Nevada for Obama and North Carolina for Romney, leaving a remainder of seven swing states?

128 total: 103 for Obama, 24 for Romney, 1 tie.

Yes I see, found it after I posted that, appreciate your reply though..

So, that I think reflects the more 'realistic odds'.. maybe 75% or so chance of Obama victory..

Yes. Two coin flips.

[The Mikado]

Worth pointing out that 16% chance is still the chance of, say, rolling a six on a six-sided die during a critical moment in a board game, and I'm sure everyone here has seen that happen. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good point. It's also worth remembering that election results are created by millions of individual choices and that, as a result, sometimes things happen that might seem strange. Models and polls are abstract representations of electoral reality, not the thing itself: generally they aren't so bad, but occasionally... you know. Never forget that literally millions of votes will be cast by people who are not absolutely sure (at this moment right now) of how they'll swing. It's real life, comrades.

[minionofmidas]

Worth pointing out that 16% chance is still the chance of, say, rolling a six on a six-sided die during a critical moment in a board game, and I'm sure everyone here has seen that happen. 

Won a Backgammon game on thursday that I could only win if my opponent's last roll included exactly one 1 and I rolled a double immediately before (which is what happened) or after.