Obama up 6 in final Pennsylvania poll- PPP

[Devils30]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our final Pennsylvania poll finds Barack Obama leading 52-46 and Bob Casey leading 52-44

[Yank2133]

Virtually unchanged from their late Octobers numbers...... so obviously a tossup.

[Devils30]

PPP seems pretty determined not to have a house effect with these polls. Others have had him up much more in WA, WI, MI too.

[J. J.]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Solid PA strategy, Mittens. 

The fat lady is clearing her throat. 

[Yank2133]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

The GOP fellas on this forum are simply furthering a comforting narrative at this point. 

[J. J.]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

F & M for one.  Where the candidates will be/have been, are spending money, for two.  If their internals showed even at 4-5 points and not trending Romney, we wouldn't be seeing this spending. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

Apres Moi Le Phénomène Bradley?

[J. J.]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

Apres Moi Le Phénomène Bradley?

I just posted the evidence.  It has nothing to do with a Bradley Effect. 

I can add a third;  PPP has a D "house effect."  Silver said he though it had dropped, but I think he's wrong.  We'll know in 3 days. 

[Ljube]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

Apres Moi Le Phénomène Bradley?

I just posted the evidence.  It has nothing to do with a Bradley Effect. 

I can add a third;  PPP has a D "house effect."  Silver said he though it had dropped, but I think he's wrong.  We'll know in 3 days. 

Silver compared them with Marist and naturally concluded that they have lost some of their house effect.

[Cliffy]

Yeah D+10, couldn't have a Dem house effect, lol

Good luck with that turnout.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I would bet that they are overestimating Obama by at least three points.  I'd still give the state to Obama.  

Where the proof of this?

Apres Moi Le Phénomène Bradley?

I just posted the evidence. 

I think we found the mastermind behind Colin Powell's UN presentation on Iraq's WMDs.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yeah D+10, couldn't have a Dem house effect, lol

Good luck with that turnout.

d+10 in pa during a presidential election year omg lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apres Moi Le Phénomène Bradley?

Or should that be 'les'? Anyone reading this thread understag Frog better than I do? It's quite likely, whoever you are. Anyways. Clarification would be half useful. Grammar is not really my strong point.

[President von Cat]

JJ either has the world's greatest poker face, or he is the biggest BSer I've ever seen. I'm going with the latter.

[Comrade Funk]

3 more days...

[J. J.]

JJ either has the world's greatest poker face, or he is the biggest BSer I've ever seen. I'm going with the latter.

Perhaps you should just read the posts.  I've never said that Obama wouldn't carry PA.  I did say that it will be much less than six.  My guess is 3 or less. 

[President von Cat]

That still sounds like a load of crap to me. But we'll see soon enough.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

JJ either has the world's greatest poker face, or he is the biggest BSer I've ever seen. I'm going with the latter.

Perhaps you should just read the posts.  I've never said that Obama wouldn't carry PA.  I did say that it will be much less than six.  My guess is 3 or less. 

If Obama's margin in Ohio is really only a point or two smaller than it is in Pennsylvania, you do realize that that still might not be exactly helpful enough, right?

[Miles]

FWIW, Corbett is trailing a Generic D 37-47. This looks especially weak when juxtaposed to Walker, who's leading 50-43.

[J. J.]

JJ either has the world's greatest poker face, or he is the biggest BSer I've ever seen. I'm going with the latter.

Let me put it this way:

PPP, the exact same poll, last had Romney up by 6 in MO, the same margin Obama is leading on PPP in PA.

You did not see Romney beginning to run ads in MO.  You did not see Obama suddenly coming into MO with a lot of money.

The first ads her were radio, and Obama aired them (after a several week hiatus) on 10/24 at the latest:

Obama is back on the air with radio ads in PA.  I heard one today. 

The Romney Superpacs started airing TV ads on 10/27.  Obama quickly joined in and has been bombarding both TV and radio since 10/30.  Something drew Obama's, then Romney's attention to PA, and I don't think it was a O +6 poll result. 

[Seriously?]

Yeah D+10, couldn't have a Dem house effect, lol

Good luck with that turnout.

d+10 in pa during a presidential election year omg lol

D+7 in the 2008 exit poll. D+2 in the 2004 exit poll. That's a lot more self identifying Democrats in 2012.

[Speed of Sound]

I feel a lot better seeing these numbers. I told myself that I would go green if the numbers started to look like this.....I think I lied to myself. I'm selling out to slay Romney anyway.

[Miles]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-11-03

Summary: D: 52%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details