CA-36: Ruiz (D) internal shows him ahead by six over MBM
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  CA-36: Ruiz (D) internal shows him ahead by six over MBM
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Author Topic: CA-36: Ruiz (D) internal shows him ahead by six over MBM  (Read 3967 times)
Lief 🗽
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« on: October 30, 2012, 05:46:36 PM »

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111615704/CA-36-Lake-Research-for-Raul-Ruiz-Oct-2012

Ruiz (D): 48%
Bono Mack (R): 42%

Great news! We're gonna be picking up lots of seats in California.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2012, 05:49:42 PM »

California has been the one bright state for Democrats in the House. I think Ruiz will win, and both the Macks will be out of Congress next year. Wink
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Zioneer
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2012, 07:19:24 PM »

Ha, awesome; Ruiz seems like a good candidate and a very progressive politician.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2012, 08:18:17 PM »

Ha! This might just be the worst poll of the cycle, or at least the worst one recently.

Check out the absentee ballots, or the primary.


MARY BONO MACK 58.1%52,474
RAUL RUIZ 41.9% 37847
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2012, 09:17:25 PM »

Ha! This might just be the worst poll of the cycle, or at least the worst one recently.

Check out the absentee ballots, or the primary.


MARY BONO MACK 58.1%52,474
RAUL RUIZ 41.9% 37847

well this is a district with a lot of "hidden democrats". But I do think people underestimate MBM. She's a seven term incumbent in an RPVI seat, and a voting record to the left of the average pub running against a Raul Grijalva clone.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2012, 11:26:15 PM »

Ha! This might just be the worst poll of the cycle, or at least the worst one recently.

Check out the absentee ballots, or the primary.


MARY BONO MACK 58.1%52,474
RAUL RUIZ 41.9% 37847

well this is a district with a lot of "hidden democrats". But I do think people underestimate MBM. She's a seven term incumbent in an RPVI seat, and a voting record to the left of the average pub running against a Raul Grijalva clone.

What's wrong with Raul Grijalva? I don't know much about him (other than his leftism and vague ideas about him being connected to Mexican-American nationalists), so I'm curious to know why he's so bad?
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2012, 11:28:01 PM »

Ha! This might just be the worst poll of the cycle, or at least the worst one recently.

Check out the absentee ballots, or the primary.


MARY BONO MACK 58.1%52,474
RAUL RUIZ 41.9% 37847

well this is a district with a lot of "hidden democrats". But I do think people underestimate MBM. She's a seven term incumbent in an RPVI seat, and a voting record to the left of the average pub running against a Raul Grijalva clone.

What's wrong with Raul Grijalva? I don't know much about him, so I'm curious to know why he's so bad?

Grijalva's lifetime ADA rating is like 99. Nothing inherently wrong with that but that doesn't fly in a district like CA 36.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2012, 09:50:29 AM »

Ha! This might just be the worst poll of the cycle, or at least the worst one recently.

Check out the absentee ballots, or the primary.


MARY BONO MACK 58.1%52,474
RAUL RUIZ 41.9% 37847

well this is a district with a lot of "hidden democrats". But I do think people underestimate MBM. She's a seven term incumbent in an RPVI seat, and a voting record to the left of the average pub running against a Raul Grijalva clone.

What's wrong with Raul Grijalva? I don't know much about him, so I'm curious to know why he's so bad?

Grijalva's lifetime ADA rating is like 99. Nothing inherently wrong with that but that doesn't fly in a district like CA 36.

Ah. Ruiz seems a bit more moderate than Grijalva, but I could be wrong.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2012, 11:48:38 AM »

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111615704/CA-36-Lake-Research-for-Raul-Ruiz-Oct-2012

Ruiz (D): 48%
Bono Mack (R): 42%

Great news! We're gonna be picking up lots of seats in California.

I am saving this one. Your team might pick up two net as a top of the bell curve prediction.  The Pubs are going to nab one from the Dems as an offset.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2012, 12:34:24 PM »

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111615704/CA-36-Lake-Research-for-Raul-Ruiz-Oct-2012

Ruiz (D): 48%
Bono Mack (R): 42%

Great news! We're gonna be picking up lots of seats in California.

I am saving this one. Your team might pick up two net as a top of the bell curve prediction.  The Pubs are going to nab one from the Dems as an offset.

Still saving this one Torie? Looks like the Dems are going to end up with a 38-15 delegation lead, so +4.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2012, 12:37:12 PM »

Ha! This might just be the worst poll of the cycle, or at least the worst one recently.

Check out the absentee ballots, or the primary.


MARY BONO MACK 58.1%52,474
RAUL RUIZ 41.9% 37847

Lol. He won by at least 7,000 votes.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2012, 12:54:23 PM »

http://www.scribd.com/doc/111615704/CA-36-Lake-Research-for-Raul-Ruiz-Oct-2012

Ruiz (D): 48%
Bono Mack (R): 42%

Great news! We're gonna be picking up lots of seats in California.

I am saving this one. Your team might pick up two net as a top of the bell curve prediction.  The Pubs are going to nab one from the Dems as an offset.

Still saving this one Torie? Looks like the Dems are going to end up with a 38-15 delegation lead, so +4.

Dear old Torie had his own Dick Morris/Michael Barone moment.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2012, 06:29:18 AM »

To be fair, Dems won two races by ridiculously tiny margins (although they'll grow with absentees/provisionals).
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Holmes
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2012, 07:12:34 AM »

The good people of Riverside decided they weren't buying what Bono-Mack was selling anymore. Smiley
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politicallefty
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2012, 07:13:17 AM »

I was not one that saw this flipping this year. It's quite a good thing that Republicans were able to pass nonpartisan redistricting in the state. Democrats probably would have ended up giving Republicans another bipartisan gerrymander in exchange for a very temporary budget deal (which would have been entirely unnecessary in light of Prop 30). A 38-15 Congressional delegation and legislative supermajorities is definitely not what I expected.
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2012, 07:52:39 AM »

Yes, the Republican Party of California slipped further into irrelevance this election. Smiley What do they even have going for them?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2012, 08:07:34 AM »

Yes, the Republican Party of California slipped further into irrelevance this election. Smiley What do they even have going for them?

What's even more scary for them is that Democrats can conceivably flip three more seats in 2014.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2012, 05:15:19 AM »

What's the third one? Denham and Miller are obvious. They might have had a chance against Valadao in a presidential year with an effort and a better candidate, but given the margin he won by, and in a midterm in that seat, nah. You can't be meaning that yin.
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Meeker
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2012, 05:58:00 AM »

I'm guessing he's referring to Buck McKeon, who pulled in only 55% in the new CA-25 against a poorly funded challenger. I wouldn't be too excited about that as a possibility though. If McKeon somehow ended up in a hotly contested race he could raise a lot of dough really quick.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2012, 10:31:48 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2012, 10:44:10 PM by Invisible Obama »

Valadao's opponent had no money at all and no name ID, so the margin this year more indicative of recruitment failure the part of the Democrats. If Dean Florez or Michael Rubio run next time, they could defeat him with good resources. Democrats picked up Valadao's Assembly seat that almost corresponds to the congressional district, so the area is winnable for Democrats. It will be a top target in 2014, not a guaranteed gain, but a prime opportunity.
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Sbane
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« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2012, 11:48:58 PM »
« Edited: November 16, 2012, 11:51:06 PM by Sbane »

To be fair to Torie, I don't think anyone saw this seat flipping, or Bilbray's. Lungren always seemed to have trouble winning re-election and Ami Bera had Silicon Valley money behind him so that wasn't too surprising to me.

I'm still trying to figure out what the hell happened here. If you look at the CVAP numbers, Hispanics aren't that powerful in this district. She must have pissed of Palm Springs somehow, or maybe the snow birds didn't return in time for the election. A precinct result map of this district would be awesome.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #21 on: November 17, 2012, 12:33:46 AM »

To be fair to Torie, I don't think anyone saw this seat flipping, or Bilbray's. Lungren always seemed to have trouble winning re-election and Ami Bera had Silicon Valley money behind him so that wasn't too surprising to me.

CA-52 had the 10th highest DCCC spending (almost $2 million) and CA-36 had over $1 million from the DCCC. Both these seats had been in play for at least a month before election day. Most forecasts had the races as toss-ups too.
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Sbane
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« Reply #22 on: November 17, 2012, 12:41:54 AM »

It will be interesting to see how Obama did in CA-36. I think Ruiz and Obama might get the same numbers. Ami Bera winning, and even Bilbray losing doesn't surprise me as much as this result. At least Bilbray's district votes Democrat for some offices. And Bilbray's seat also has a lot of Asians, who seem to have swung to Obama.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2012, 01:04:40 AM »

The registration numbers in CA-36 changed from a two point Republican advantage when the maps were first released, to a very narrow Democratic advantage by the time election day rolled around. The state democratic party created a powerful ground game in Riverside County from nothing and that brought out a lot more Hispanic voters. Plus, Bono Mack's attacks on Ruiz in the last month probably didn't help her crossover support, as preliminary results show that Ruiz crushed in Palm Springs. Obama also appears to have done a few points better in Palm Springs, as well as Coachella and Indio, while not losing much ground in other areas. The precinct maps for the congressional and presidential races are at these links

http://www.pe.com/local-news/politics/jim-miller-headlines/20121109-2012-election-obamas-support-dropped-in-inland-area.ece

http://www.pe.com/local-news/politics/jeff-horseman-headlines/20121109-election-2012-ruiz-takes-seat-bono-mack-concedes.ece

Zoom in for better detail, it gives percentages for each precinct.
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hopper
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« Reply #24 on: November 17, 2012, 07:06:01 PM »

Bono Mack voted for "The Ryan Plan" twice. Thats would did her in in the election. She had a disasterous debate with Ruiz on C-Span. She melted down big time in the debate with the attacks. I think the attacks on Ruiz she was banking on to win her the election but it didn't work.
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