South Africa: Two-Decade Honeymoon with African National Congress Ending

[Frodo]

It's about time the country moved beyond the ANC:

In South Africa, disillusionment with the party that ended apartheid

By Sudarsan Raghavan, Published: November 3

Khutsong, South Africa — The party that ended apartheid has begun to lose its appeal among black South Africans, many of whom have grown frustrated waiting for the “better life for all” promised when the African National Congress won historic multi­racial elections 18 years ago.

The disenchantment with the ANC, to be sure, has been gradually building over the years. But it has intensified in recent weeks amid ongoing, and often violent, labor unrest that has spread across the nation since police killed 34 strikers at a platinum mine in August, the deadliest police action in post-apartheid South Africa.

In newspaper columns, on radio talk shows, blogs and social media, the ANC is facing a public outcry, accused of being corrupt, ineffective, wasteful and out of touch with the hardships faced by South Africa’s impoverished masses. Even prominent anti-apartheid figures are publicly disparaging the ANC leadership, calling its credibility into question. Meanwhile, other critics, including senior ANC leaders, say the party is divided and facing a crisis of leadership, as President Jacob Zuma battles allegations of misuse of public funds to renovate his private residence.

“Now, the honeymoon is pretty much over,” said Robert Schrire, a political analyst at the University of Cape Town. “What we are seeing is that the average black South African is no longer blindly loyal to the ANC. That person feels angry and betrayed.”

[DC Al Fine]

I'll believe it when the ANC gets <50% of the vote. Somehow I don't see these poor black miners voting for the Democratic Alliance.

[politicus]

Sounds promising. One party rule is never a good thing and the ANC certainly has had its share of corruption, abuse of power, nepotism and incompetence. But SA still lacks a credible left wing alternative to the ANC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the ANC's absolute domination of politics in SA does come to an end soon, it will be to the benefit of people who bourgeois Western observers will like even less. You only need to see what is causing the current anger to see that much.

[politicus]

Hence the need for a credible left wing alternative to represent the poor. The property and income distribution in SA is so blatantly unjust that some kind of social revolution is necessary in order for the country to move forward - hopefully that can be obtained by democratic means.
I am generally very much in favour of development via gradual reform with respect for private property, but in a few cases the historical injustices are just too big for this path to be viable. SA is one of them IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or, alternatively, for the money lenders to be evicted from the Temple. Though it may be too late for that.

[ingemann]

Hence the need for a credible left wing alternative to represent the poor. The property and income distribution in SA is so blatantly unjust that some kind of social revolution is necessary in order for the country to move forward - hopefully that can be obtained by democratic means.
I am generally very much in favour of development via gradual reform with respect for private property, but in a few cases the historical injustices are just too big for this path to be viable. SA is one of them IMO.

The problem that such a social revolution would likely focus on land reform, and it would turn into just as big disaster as other places in Africa. Land reform work only if the local farming are based on land being rented out to cropsholders, breaking big industrial farms up into smaller plots have never been a success. The other problem is that while a major reason that the Whites are in such a stronger economic position are their ownership of property, another just as major reason is that the Whites are to large extent skilled workers, while the Blacks mostly aren't. As such a transfer of property will just result in failing business and the skilled workers to large extent leaving the country (not a good recipe).
What South Africa should do, are too focus on education and entrepreneurship, it may take decades but it's the safe way to build up a Black middleclass rather than building one on corruption (a major reason for the South African accept of corruption is that it's seen as one of the few ways a Black elite can be created).

[politicus]

Hence the need for a credible left wing alternative to represent the poor. The property and income distribution in SA is so blatantly unjust that some kind of social revolution is necessary in order for the country to move forward - hopefully that can be obtained by democratic means.
I am generally very much in favour of development via gradual reform with respect for private property, but in a few cases the historical injustices are just too big for this path to be viable. SA is one of them IMO.

The problem that such a social revolution would likely focus on land reform, and it would turn into just as big disaster as other places in Africa. Land reform work only if the local farming are based on land being rented out to cropsholders, breaking big industrial farms up into smaller plots have never been a success. The other problem is that while a major reason that the Whites are in such a stronger economic position are their ownership of property, another just as major reason is that the Whites are to large extent skilled workers, while the Blacks mostly aren't. As such a transfer of property will just result in failing business and the skilled workers to large extent leaving the country (not a good recipe).
What South Africa should do, are too focus on education and entrepreneurship, it may take decades but it's the safe way to build up a Black middleclass rather than building one on corruption (a major reason for the South African accept of corruption is that it's seen as one of the few ways a Black elite can be created).

Fine reasoning along classical Social Democratic/Liberal lines of tought, but the question is if it is realistic in a South African context. I highly doubt it. The pressure from below is just too big.

[ingemann]

Fine reasoning along classical Social Democratic/Liberal lines of tought, but the question is if it is realistic in a South African context. I highly doubt it. The pressure from below is just too big.

The problem, is that the alternative is worse as a transfer of property will just mean that either the situation are worsen or the transfer are purely symbolic (which will make everyone even more pissed). The problem is that much of the South African values doesn't lie in property, but in know how and skills, and what's not something which can be transfered only destroyed.

[Hash]

Is it the time of year for the obligatory yearly articles on the ANC's impeding demise?

[politicus]

Is it the time of year for the obligatory yearly articles on the ANC's impeding demise?

Valid point, but sooner or later the media will be right about this. ANC is too broad tent to hold together forever and they havent lived up to the expectations of their constituency (nobody could have, but its still a fact).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The current absolutely dominant electoral coalition can't hold together forever, that's true enough (although it might well last longer than Western bourgeois observers would like), but a position of electoral dominance - which might include the odd freak spell out of power, perhaps - easily can.

[minionofmidas]

The current absolutely dominant electoral coalition can't hold together forever, that's true enough (although it might well last longer than Western bourgeois observers would like)

Already has.

[Хahar 🤔]

Of course the ANC will be in power until there is an alternative palatable to black voters.

[DC Al Fine]

The question is what would become the 2nd party to compete with the ANC. I just don't see the DA winning 25, 30, 40% of the vote. Maybe it'll be "Kill the whites & take their land types" vs moderates.

[Benj]

The question is what would become the 2nd party to compete with the ANC. I just don't see the DA winning 25, 30, 40% of the vote. Maybe it'll be "Kill the whites & take their land types" vs moderates.

I think the DA could definitely manage 25% or 30% of the vote. Coloured voters outside of Western Cape are loyal to the ANC now, but it's hard to see that continuing for long, and the DA is much more natural home for them than the likely other alternatives to the ANC (either some sort of black nationalist party or an explicitly socialist party). Winning a significant portion of the black vote is unlikely in the medium-term, however.

[politicus]

Of course the ANC will be in power until there is an alternative palatable to black voters.

Stating the obvious. But parties emerge then there is a market for new policies. As the article points out COSATU is getting dissatisfied with the ANC and union based parties have been succesfull in several other countries in Southern Africa.
Most likely the left wing of the ANC will simply leave the party.
Democratic Alliance will always remain a minority party (outside of Western Cape).
A "natural" party system in SA would be a three way split between DA (whites and middle class coloureds and Indians), a liberal establishment party (black middle class) and a left wing party for the poor non-whites.
ANCs future role is being "the black middle class party" (with perhaps 20-25% of the vote).

[Vosem]

I do think the ANC will take a hit come 2014, but it won't matter. The question is whether or not they hit 60% of the vote, and the answer very probably is 'yes'.