Tender Branson readies his Final 2012 Prediction Thread

[Tender Branson]

2012 President:

AL: 61-38 Romney
AK: 61-34 Romney
AZ: 53-44 Romney
AR: 60-38 Romney
CA: 58-39 Obama
CO: 50-47 Obama
CT: 56-42 Obama
DE: 57-41 Obama
DC: 91-8 Obama
FL: 50-49 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
GA: 52-46 Romney

HI: 67-32 Obama
ID: 68-29 Romney
IL: 58-40 Obama
IN: 55-44 Romney
IA: 50-48 Obama
KS: 58-41 Romney
KY: 58-41 Romney
LA: 59-40 Romney
ME: 55-44 Obama (ME-02: 51-47 Obama)
MD: 60-38 Obama

MA: 58-39 Obama (Stein: 2%)
MI: 53-45 Obama
MN: 53-45 Obama
MS: 57-42 Romney
MO: 53-46 Romney
MT: 52-44 Romney
NE: 58-41 Romney (NE-02: 53-45 Romney)
NV: 52-44 Obama
NH: 51-47 Obama
NJ: 57-41 Obama

NM: 51-41 Obama (Johnson: 7%)
NY: 60-38 Obama
NC: 50-48 Romney (rounding, Romney wins with less than 50%)
ND: 57-41 Romney
OH: 51-47 Obama
OK: 67-33 Romney
OR: 54-44 Obama
PA: 53-46 Obama
RI: 60-39 Obama
SC: 54-45 Romney

SD: 55-44 Romney
TN: 58-40 Romney
TX: 58-41 Romney
UT: 74-22 Romney (Anderson: 2%)
VT: 63-35 Obama
VA: 50-47 Obama (Goode: 2%)
WA: 56-42 Obama
WV: 56-42 Romney
WI: 51-47 Obama
WY: 65-34 Romney

Later:

Senate, Governors & House.

[Tender Branson]

NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE PROJECTION:

50.4% Obama
47.3% Romney
  0.8% Johnson
  0.6% Stein
  0.3% Goode
  0.2% Anderson
  0.4% Others

Turnout: 136.3 million (56.6% of the VAP "voting age population")

[Tender Branson]

State by state looks good. I think your third-party PV numbers are a tad liberal, though.

Of course all of this will be revised up until Monday evening. I'll probably "up" WI a bit for Obama if the final polls are out.

[Tender Branson]

I think you need to swap candidates on Oklahoma -- you have it as 67-33 Obama.

Ahh, thx.

Will correct that ...

[Tender Branson]

Updated Presidential #s ...

Senate:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1577

I'm not sure about MT and ND though. One or both of those could be won by the GOP.

But let's stay optimistic ...

[Tender Branson]

Governors:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=557

Not sure about MT, this could go either way.

NH will probably elect Maggie Hassan by a small margin.

Inslee and McCrory should probably win by 5 (Inslee) to about 9-10 (McCrory).

[Tender Branson]

House:

I'm not going to do individual seats, but my guess is that the Dems gain slightly.

But when all is counted, it will still be 226-209 for the Republicans.

[Tender Branson]

SSM referendums and CA death penalty and CO grass:

WA: 53-47 pro SSM

MN: 51-49 against the hetero marriage amendment

MD: 52-48 pro SSM

ME: 53-47 pro SSM

CA: 52-48 for the abolition of the death penalty

CO: 51-49 against marihuana

[Tender Branson]

If you see any flaws in my numbers/maps that is not matching up, please tell me ...