Anyone, but me think that the president will pull it out in Florida?
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  Anyone, but me think that the president will pull it out in Florida?
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Author Topic: Anyone, but me think that the president will pull it out in Florida?  (Read 1437 times)
sg0508
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« on: November 04, 2012, 10:25:36 AM »

I don't know why I feel that way, but I just do. 
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Franzl
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 10:27:30 AM »

It's a distinct possibility, but I do have trouble imagining Mason Dixon being off by over 6%...
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 10:33:34 AM »

Rain forecast for much of Florida on Tuesday. Early vote may tip the balance.
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sg0508
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 10:34:49 AM »

It's a distinct possibility, but I do have trouble imagining Mason Dixon being off by over 6%...
That's why this site is good. You CANNOT look at one poll.  You have to look at all of them.  If you think that Romney is going to win FL by 6%, you're out of your mind.  Look at all the recent polls in the aggregate.  

If the Seniors/youth vote shows up in a big way and if the GOP thinks they've lost and fail to show, the president wins the 29 EVs.
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Franzl
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 10:37:41 AM »

It's a distinct possibility, but I do have trouble imagining Mason Dixon being off by over 6%...
That's why this site is good. You CANNOT look at one poll.  You have to look at all of them.  If you think that Romney is going to win FL by 6%, you're out of your mind.  Look at all the recent polls in the aggregate.  

If the Seniors/youth vote shows up in a big way and if the GOP thinks they've lost and fail to show, the president wins the 29 EVs.

I agree that the polling average is what matters. That's why an Obama win isn't out of the question. It'd still mean that Mason Dixon was more than 6% off. (Statistically possible, of course, but unlikely)
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Cliffy
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 10:38:08 AM »

Rain forecast for much of Florida on Tuesday. Early vote may tip the balance.

ha ha, rain will hurt dems, we'll swim through crocodile infested rivers to vote.....
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 10:43:28 AM »

Frankly, I doubt it.
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 10:46:13 AM »

Rain forecast for much of Florida on Tuesday. Early vote may tip the balance.

ha ha, rain will hurt dems, we'll swim through crocodile infested rivers to vote.....

You guys may get your chance to do just that.
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Drew1830
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2012, 10:53:36 AM »

Rain forecast for much of Florida on Tuesday. Early vote may tip the balance.

ha ha, rain will hurt dems, we'll swim through crocodile infested rivers to vote.....

No rain in South Florida, Cliffy, where Obama gets most of his margin.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2012, 10:54:14 AM »

I honestly don't know. This is one of a very few states that's holding off my final prediction until the end. I have almost bipolar feelings on the state.
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stegosaurus
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2012, 11:13:21 AM »

a) Obama's support among Jewish voters in South Florida is going to be weak. I would expect lower than usual turnout for this demographic.

b) Unlike most other swing states, the Republicans hold close with the Democrats in Party ID. In 2008, the breakdown was Democrat (37%) Republican (34%) Independent (29%)*. The enthusiasm is on the GOP's side, the make-up of partisans is going to reflect that. Assuming that Romney is winning Independents handily, by 5-10%, I don't see Obama pulling it out.

Or simply put: The President won Florida by 2 points in 2008 winning independents by 7 points and with 12% of the GOP vote. This is NOT happening.

* source: cnn exit poll 2008: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#FLP00p1
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2012, 11:15:47 AM »

I honestly don't know. This is one of a very few states that's holding off my final prediction until the end. I have almost bipolar feelings on the state.

I agree - I was CERTAIN Florida was gone a couple of weeks ago, but I've laminated it under 'ugh I don't know'!

Also, where is this evidence that Obama's weak among Jews?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2012, 11:18:14 AM »


I am slightly leaning towards a Romney win in Florida.
But let's wait and see on Tuesday.

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stegosaurus
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2012, 11:35:43 AM »

I honestly don't know. This is one of a very few states that's holding off my final prediction until the end. I have almost bipolar feelings on the state.

I agree - I was CERTAIN Florida was gone a couple of weeks ago, but I've laminated it under 'ugh I don't know'!

Also, where is this evidence that Obama's weak among Jews?

http://www2.tbo.com/news/politics/2012/oct/25/jewish-vote-likely-pivotal-in-florida-ar-543603/
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As they demonstrate, it doesn't take much of a shift among this demographic to create a problem for Obama.
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Drew1830
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2012, 11:45:22 AM »

Regardless of the that Obama's chances of winning Florida are much better now than they were a month ago.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2012, 11:46:11 AM »

The President should probably wear a condom. Pulling it out is just too risky.
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anvi
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2012, 11:49:58 AM »

Aggregate polling data plus early voting reports incline me to believe Romney will win Florida by somewhere around 2%.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2012, 12:00:54 PM »

The 2008 National AJC poll showed Obama +27 among Jews.  Obama ended up winning Jews by 57%.  It's really hard to find good polls on 2% of the population.  I would take polls of Jewish support with a grain of salt. 

Ultimately, Romney will win 95-100% of ultra-orthodox Jews and also Sheldon Adelson and Eric Cantor.  I bet Obama matches his 2008 numbers among Jews or comes pretty close.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2012, 12:05:21 PM »

I think he will, but since I have it as the closest state, I won't be too mad if I'm wrong.  It's not a tipping point state by any means, Romney absolutely needs it and for Obama it would just be icing on the cake. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2012, 12:23:21 PM »

Obama's chances in FL are a little better than Romney's chances in OH. But in the end I expect Obama wins OH and Romney wins FL.
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sg0508
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2012, 12:27:46 PM »

You can't look at results four years ago and project a state like FL (and VA) because the demographics there are constantly changing and shifting.  A state like ND/SD is easy to model since little ever changes there, but a 2 pt win four years back means little now.  Look at how many new voters there are, changes in the demographics, growth in some areas vs. others.

Again, I wouldn't be shocked if FL isn't called by early Wed and if in the end, the margin is less than one point.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2012, 01:35:50 PM »

Rain forecast for much of Florida on Tuesday. Early vote may tip the balance.

ha ha, rain will hurt dems, we'll swim through crocodile infested rivers to vote.....

It's okay my dad said similar things. He's definitely voting for Obama on Tuesday.
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Frodo
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2012, 01:42:31 PM »

I think it is highly unlikely for the following reasons:

-New Deal-era seniors are being replaced by those who came of age during the Eisenhower years, who are a more Republican demographic, and more skeptical of government.

-Obama is weaker than previous Democrats with Jews, and I think Romney is going to make some (significant) inroads with them.

-Cubans...the older anti-Castro generation is still very much alive.  This election may well be their last hurrah. 

-Governor Alex Sink.
--------------------------------------------

So, yeah, I give the edge to the GOP here. 
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2012, 01:44:37 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 01:54:24 PM by ProudModerate2 »


One thing I would like to add, is that if Obama is called the the winner in Florida early during election night, the entire election is over !
Obama wins.

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J. J.
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2012, 01:50:07 PM »

He's redeploying assets to PA, at least those he can.  FL is the ground game, and something bizarre is happening here (bizarre even for PA politics).  
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