Official 2012 Presidential Prediction Thread

[Thomas D]

Obama 294
Romney 244

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll start

Obama   Romney   Other
AL   39   59   2
AK   36   59   5
AZ   45   53   2
AR   37   60   3
CA   56   40   4
CO   50   49   1
CT   55   43   2
DE   59   39   2
DC   91   8   1
FL   48   51   1
GA   46   53   1
HI   63   35   2
ID   30   67   3
IL   60   38   2
IN   45   53   2
IA   50   49   1
KS   37   60   3
KY   42   56   2
LA   39   59   2
ME   56   42   3
MD   60   38   2
MA   57   40   3
MI   52   46   2
MN   52   45   3
MS   40   59   1
MO   44   53   3
MT   43   53   4
NE   42   56   2
NV   51   47   2
NH   51   48   1
NJ   57   41   2
NM   52   44   4
NY   61   37   2
NC   48   51   1
ND   40   57   3
OH   51   48   1
OK   37   63   0
OR   51   45   4
PA   51   47   2
RI   63   35   2
SC   44   54   2
SD   44   53   3
TN   43   55   2
TX   40   59   1
UT   21   74   5
VT   64   37   3
VA   50   48   2
WA   56   42   2
WV   42   55   3
WI   52   47   1
WY   30   67   3

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

O: 303
R: 235

[gsmiro]

Obama 243
Romney 295

[Knives]

If polling is correct.

[mileslunn]

Okay here is mine rounded to nearest whole number.  Note in Virginia and Colorado I have a tie but I have predicted Obama takes Colorado and Romney takes Virginia

         Obama  Romney

AL       36         63
AK       37         62
AZ       46         53
AR       38         61
CA       59         40
CO       49         49     
CT       57         42
DE      58         41
DC      92          7
FL       49         50
GA      44         55
HI       66         33
ID       30         69
IL       58         41
IN       43         56
IA       51         48
KS      38         61
KY      39         60
LA      39         60
ME     55         44
MD     60        39
MA     59        40
MI      52        47
MN     53        46
MS     41        58
MO     44        55
MT     45         54     
NE     39        60
NV     53        46
NH     50        49
NJ      57        42
NM     54        45
NY     61        38
NC     47        52
ND     40        59
OH     51        48
OK     32        67
OR     53        46
PA     51        48
RI     61        38
SC    43        56
SD    44        55
TN    40        59
TX    42        57
UT    25        75
VT    64       35
VA    49        49
WA   55        44
WV   40        59
WI   52        47
WY  30        69
US - 49/49 - Obama wins by 0.3% of the popular vote

[CountryRoads]

Romney: 279 (50.2%)
Obama: 259 (48.4%)
Other: 0 (1.4%)

[Moooooo]

I have yet to see a thread dedicated totally to posting final predictions (Tender seems to have one just for himself. Egomaniac ). If there is one, don't kill me. Just bring it to my attention and I'll delete this. 


My prediction:

Obama/Biden - 294
Romney/Ryan - 244


National Popular Vote

Obama/Biden - 49%
Romney/Ryan - 48%
Others - 3%

Same map.

PV 50 Obama
48 Romne
2 other

[pepper11]

[Cryptic]

Obama: 303
Romney: 235

[justW353]

Obama/Biden : 303
Romney/Ryan : 235

[J. J.]

Romney:  285

Obama:  253

About 2-3 weeks ago, IA got added, due to early voting.  A few days after the first debate, OH got added.  Prior to that, it was Obama 277, Romney 261. 

As of tonight, I still think Obama carries PA. 

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

How do I post map?

[Fargobison]

This but give NH to Obama. CO and OH will be extremely tight, maybe even too tight since it could make Ohio into a big mess that takes a while to sort out.

[frihetsivrare]

[5280]

Romney: 279
Obama: 259

[Eraserhead]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Final Map:



Obama - 303

Romney - 235


Popular Vote:

Obama - 50.5%

Romney - 47.8%

Johnson - 0.7%

Stein - 0.4%

Goode - 0.2%

Anderson - 0.1%

Others - 0.3%


Confidence Map:



Obama - 281

Romney - 206

Tossup - 51 (Colorado, Florida, Virginia)

[JohnCA246]

I have yet to see a thread dedicated totally to posting final predictions (Tender seems to have one just for himself. Egomaniac ). If there is one, don't kill me. Just bring it to my attention and I'll delete this. 


My prediction:

Obama/Biden - 294
Romney/Ryan - 244


National Popular Vote

Obama/Biden - 49%
Romney/Ryan - 48%
Others - 3%

Same, but I'll go with 3% popular vote win.

[pbrower2a]

As of 10AM EST 7 November 2012

Yesterday I predicted that Florida would go to Romney because of the ad that suggested that President Obama had good buddies in Cuba and Venezuela. That ad may have backfired. 

[Lief 🗽]

My final map:

EV
Obama 332
Romney 206

PV
Obama 50.8%
Romney 47.4%

North Carolina and Florida are the only states I'm not (at least relatively) sure on. I've long been one of the few saying that Obama could win North Carolina, and he still can, but in 2008 I was a little too optimistic, so this year I'll be a bit pessimistic. Still, Obama should win tomorrow, and I think he'll win a majority of the popular vote as well. Hopefully Romney get's between 46.5 and 47.49 percent of the vote, so his final number rounds to exactly 47%. 

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Barack Obama 303
Mitt Romney 235

The only states I'm unsure about are North Carolina and Florida.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney/Ryan                   275 EV     49.4%
Obama/Biden                   263 EV     49.2%
Others                                 0 EV       1.4%

[Magic 8-Ball]

303-235; popular vote margin somewhere between the 2004 and 1916 elections.

I really put myself out there with this.

[GLPman]

This is my final prediction:

Obama: 281
Romney: 257

[J. J.]

This is my final prediction:

Obama: 281
Romney: 257

That, plus NH, was my pre-debate map.