OH: 52-47 Obama, PPP

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Holy...

I was not expecting this...!

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The only chance Romney has at winning here at this point is that pollsters have over estimated Democratic turnout in their models.

That or fraud, basically, and considering no pollster except Rasmussen actually actively weights for these things...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Initiate J.J effect, tied race

Probably.  PPP has problems. 

Jesus, JJ. You've lost it all now.

Yes... when PPP is saying what you want, they're reasonable... now they've got problems

Was J.J. actually calling PPP reasonable at some point in this campaign? I don't specifically remember that but I don't not remember it either.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Even if PPP did still have a house bias in the D+3 range, Obama would still be up two and breaking fifty here.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Even if PPP did still have a house bias in the D+3 range, Obama would still be up two and breaking fifty here.

Half these PPP polls have better D+ margins than 2008. Others claim ridiculous stuff that does not line up with the early vote, such as the equivalent of Obama taking 80% of the Independent early vote. It takes a suspension of common sense and belief to believe those numbers.

It's only 'ridiculous' if one doesn't know how Ohio election law works and why one might end up listed as 'unaffiliated' in the early vote numbers under it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

BRTD, you forgot:

Corollary to the First Rule:  "Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly."

But, J.J., we are trusting several polls. You're barely trusting any of the polls at all.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

J. J.'s First Rule of Elections:  "If a candidate that say something like 'I don't look at the polls,' or 'The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day,' that candidate will lose."

BRTD, you forgot:

Corollary to the First Rule:  "Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly."

But, J.J., we are trusting several polls. You're barely trusting any of the polls at all.

You are focusing very strongly on PPP.  It is a good poll in its methodology, but it produces a house effect.  I really don't know how much, but it looks like it's above D+3.  

We are focusing on the sixteen polls out of seventeen that show Obama ahead in Ohio.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

PPP has Obama +5 in Ohio and +6 in Michigan... no way there is only one point of difference in those states... if Obama wins Ohio by 5 (unlikely) then Michigan will be a blowout.

I've never really talked to you before, Reds4, but I'd just like to take the opportunity to praise you for your reasonable outlook on this election. Hell, you're probably less hackish than I am this season.