Have you seen Alaska?

[everybodyvote]

Quote from another thread:
"On one final note, I just saw Alaska's margin of victory...maybe it will be swing by 2016 and beyond? This is a trend, people! Haha!
2000 - R+30.95 (Bush @58.62%)
2004 - R+25.55 (Bush @61.07%)
2008 - R+21.53 (McCain @59.42%)
2012 - R+13.26 (Romney @54.51%) (99.8% precincts reporting...I think the missing precinct data is the absentee ballots because from the count as it stands now I am seeing a drop of 100,000+ votes, which seems unusual...so this margin might increase when it finally gets to 100%, we'll see.)"
by tokar


I just checked and AK is now +14.4%. So Alaska has had a swing of over 7% Democrat in a year where the nation swung 4% more Republican. That's pretty major.

Why is this happening?

Will Alaska automatically become a swing state in the future?

[minionofmidas]

Yes, that is a trend. Or several microtrends happening to work the same way - note that Bush's 2000 MoV is also exaggerated because of the sizable Nader vote (which of course wouldn't have been this sizable if it weren't a swing state, but also wouldn't have been if it hadn't had a noticeable population of potential Nader voters.) I need to go take a look at Alaska district-by-district to see what happened this year. Which is complicated by the new and much less model district map.

[Holmes]

I think this is something we would have caught in 2008 had Palin not been on the ticket. Remember, the polls were "close" in Alaska before she was chosen. I don't think the state will be in play, at least not anytime soon, but this is probably good news for Begich.

[politicallefty]

I can't really explain this. Right now, the margin in the state is closer than in Montana. It's the highest Democratic vote for President since 1968. But then again, the polling in Alaska was fairly close in 2008 before Palin was chosen.

[RI]

If you look at the HD results, most of the new areas won by Obama in 2012 were in the Panhandle and the rural expanse (i.e. Native areas). Anchorage was a bit better for Obama, but not massively.

[minionofmidas]

If you look at the HD results, most of the new areas won by Obama in 2012 were in the Panhandle and the rural expanse (i.e. Native areas).

Good. I like that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed, this looks pretty impressive. Part of this is Palin not being on the ticket, but is it enough to explain it?

[ProudModerate2]

Very intersting find.
Thanks for the quick research and numbers on this.

[Eraserhead]

Obama would have come bizarrely close to beating McCain in Alaska if Palin had not been added to the ticket in '08. This was one state that I knew would swing to Obama this year no matter what.

[badgate]

This thread has me playing with the electoral map to make up a race that hinges on the way alaska goes

[Landslide Lyndon]

Good news for Mark Begich.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Alaska is fairly similar to Montana; conservative and run by fossil fuel interets, but with strong unions and good performance for Democrats at a state/local level. This swing was primarily a correction of the 2008 result (remember, Palin was VERY popular in Alaska).