NC: PPP: Romney +.2

[Fargobison]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/265303828776222720

[Devils30]

I guess the decimals make PPP a junk pollster!

[pepper11]

Best news of the night. Now we know for sure PPP is hacking it up. Early voting in NC is way off this number, probably 5 points.

[Lief 🗽]

This will be the closest state in the country.

[Gass3268]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Obama up 54/45 among early voters in North Carolina, Romney leads 58/40 with folks planning to vote on election day

This state is going to be extremely close

[Skill and Chance]

Oh for crying out loud!

I guess OH and VA really are tied

[Speed of Sound]

Here's a place where I think they'll surely be wrong. Take this, take Rassy's last, mix it all up, scan the Earlys and the poll numbers one more time, and R+3.5-4ish looks a lot more realistic. Silver probably has it right when he projects Romney to have 80% odds there, though he's probably being bearish. (90%, maybe?)

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

I won't say it.

[Gass3268]

This is their backyard and they know the state well. This will be the closest state on election night!

[Fargobison]

It doesn't make sense. Obama hasn't even been to NC since the convention, Romney was there once. If it was tied you would think somebody would be there in the final week or for that fact the final month of the campaign.

[DrScholl]

North Carolina is going to be close, no doubt about it. The state has changed. It's certainly a lot closer than Pennsylvania or Michigan or any of the other states that Republicans are banking on Romney carrying.

[Skill and Chance]

This will be the closest state in the country.

Come on.  They are showing a 2% race nationally.  Either these polls are way off or Romney is winning 80/20 in Texas with 95% turnout.  Which is more plausible?

I still think Obama should win btw, but not with 347(!) EV.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This actually isn't comforting.

[Devils30]

I'd dismiss it normally but PPP has a very strong record here and most polls have it very close. Most likely Romney wins by a couple but long term NC is trending D.

[Yank2133]

It doesn't make sense. Obama hasn't even been to NC since the convention, Romney was there once. If it was tied you would think somebody would be there in the final week or for that fact the final month of the campaign.

Clinton and Michelle were there just the pass couple of days.

Anyway, PPP knows their state....so I don't see why posters are dismissing them. Historically, they have been very accurate when it comes to NC, and VA for that matter.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This actually isn't comforting.

Why not?  Obama doesn't need North Carolina to win, and the fact that it's this close is a good sign.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This actually isn't comforting.

Why not?  Obama doesn't need North Carolina to win, and the fact that it's this close is a good sign.

It seems a couple points off, that's why. It's worrying that the others may be off as well.

[pepper11]

60% of the vote is in and Repubs have gained 5 point since 2008. That is a fact. Its not a poll. Its what has happened. How can you guys argue this poll can possibly be accurate?

[You kip if you want to...]

Not happening, come on.

And in 2010, Nate Silver did a piece about how PPP polling NC actually leads to them getting pretty bad results. PPP had the 2010 NC race as a toss-up, don't forget...

[Fargobison]

It doesn't make sense. Obama hasn't even been to NC since the convention, Romney was there once. If it was tied you would think somebody would be there in the final week or for that fact the final month of the campaign.

Clinton and Michelle were there just the pass couple of days.

Anyway, PPP knows their state....so I don't see why posters are dismissing them. Historically, they have been very accurate when it comes to NC, and VA for that matter.

If NC is this close, the election isn't close and Obama would be there to run up the score. Bill has been all over the map this week, it is almost like they don't trust the numbers that they have and you could say the same about Mitt's campaign.

[President von Cat]

Best news of the night. Now we know for sure PPP is hacking it up. Early voting in NC is way off this number, probably 5 points.

Hey dumbass, being wrong here doesn't mean every other poll they release is wrong.

[pa2011]

Really sort of doubt PPP is skewing its result.  Isn't it based in NC. And, at this stage, this is game time for pollsters. They know their reputation (and future revenue) are at stake. Almost no incentive for a polling firm like PPP, to not produce as accurate result as possible.

[Gass3268]

I know it's Daily Kos, but there is some good data analysis in this post

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/04/1155129/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-17-Early-Vote-Ends-With-a-Dem-Turnout-Bang-Now-Comes-E-DAY-GOTV

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

This actually isn't comforting.

Why not?  Obama doesn't need North Carolina to win, and the fact that it's this close is a good sign.

It seems a couple points off, that's why. It's worrying that the others may be off as well.

It's a state that's moving left with an influx of Northerners and Hispanics, and at the same time moving right because whites in NC are going to swing a few points to Romney.  It's going to be close and PPP has nailed every statewide election they've done here... in 2008, a Democratic year, and 2010, a very weird Tea Party/GOP year.  

[pa2011]

Based on everything I am reading, it really does seem like the black turnout/enthusiasm, is not going to be that far off from what it was in 2008.  If that is the case, the PPP poll makes complete sense, as does PPP's +4 in Virginia while at same time showing only +2 in (whiter) Iowa.