2016 Battleground States?

[Mr. Morden]

In this week's election, the ordering of the states closest to the national average from biggest Obama win to smallest were:

ia > nh > pa > co > va > oh > fl

with CO as the tipping point state.

If we assume that Obama got some boost in OH from the auto bailout, which'll fade somewhat by 2016, and if we assume that Hispanic growth in CO will cause it to trend a bit more towards the Dems, then I could see PA is the #1 battleground in 2016....the state that both campaigns end up focusing the most on.  Of course it depends on who the candidates are, and what the circumstances are in a few years.

In any case, I don't think there'll be enormous shifts in just one election cycle.  Romney won Texas by, what?  16 points?  Predictions about it becoming a swing state as early as 2016 are ridiculous.

[Mr. Morden]

"Battleground states" presume a competitive election, in which the two parties are close to parity, a la 2000, 2004, and 2012.  In elections where one candidate has a big national lead, what happens on a state-by-state level is irrelevant.  So these predictions in which a dozen states move towards the Dems and nothing moves back towards the GOP don't make much sense in the context of the question being asked.  If some states are moving towards the Dems relative to the national average, then other states have to be moving towards the GOP relative to the national average.