2016 Battleground States?

[Ljube]

Of the nine 2012 battlegrounds and seeing how they voted last night and the trends, I think that NV will probably drop off the list in 2016. Maybe WI and NC too. MI, MN, and PA were not really battlegrounds this time and will probably remain off the list. But the GOP need to find some states where they can make some inroads of their own on Dem turf. But not sure I see room for new Dem targets. AZ still seems out of reach. Maybe GA?

NV actually trended Romney.
MI, MN, PA were not really battlegrounds, so I don't expect them to be battlegrounds in four years either.
GA and AZ won’t become battlegrounds in 2016.


2016 battlegrounds: FL, VA, NC, OH, NH, IA, CO, NV. Maybe even NM.

To win the White House, a Republican candidate must run the table and win FL, OH, NC, VA and one other state.

The Republicans will be forced to promise a comprehensive immigration reform and nominate a reformist, or maybe even a Hispanic candidate.
To be able to successfully rebrand themselves as immigration reformers, they will have to first block all attempts by President Obama to do the same.

[Ljube]

Well all the swing states trended GOP because 2008 was such a blowout, plus Nevada's economy is in the toilet and yet Obama still won by 6 (more than PA). I think NV is headed the way of NM, as in off the table. If not in 2016, then 2020.

That is assuming the margins with Hispanics stay the same.
I think that the GOP will have to become the party of immigration reform if they wish to ever again compete in a presidential election.

[Ljube]

That's all fine, but the GOP needs FL, OH, VA, NC (not a given) and one other, say CO.

However, if everything stays the same, CO will trend further D, so the GOP would need to win the popular vote by at least 2% to barely carry CO.

If nothing is done to court the Hispanics, FL may slip out of reach, and PA alone wouldn't be enough to substitute FL. PA + CO = FL, but then the GOP would need another state, say NH.

This is such a big problem.


What else is there then?
Running up margins with the whites?

Romney’s margin was already 20 points. That's Reagan's margin against Carter.
Can that margin go any higher?

[Ljube]

This leaves (in my mind): CO, AZ, TX, FL, VA, GA, NC.
CO, FL, VA, and NC are true swing states, at the moment.

If those are the swing states, there's no point in having a presidential election. We may as well declare the Democratic Party candidate the winner since a Democrat wouldn't need a single one of those swing states to win.

I was talking about a more realistic scenario in which the GOP does not concede the presidential election.

[Ljube]

@tokar

PA, MI, WI and MN are trending Republican. With a right candidate (one who can relate to white working class and turn out evangelicals = a compassionate conservative bordering populist) they can be in play as soon as 2016.

A compassionate conservative would greatly increase his share of blacks and Hispanics and probably win Asians.

[Ljube]

@tokar

PA, MI, WI and MN are trending Republican. With a right candidate (one who can relate to white working class and turn out evangelicals = a compassionate conservative bordering populist) they can be in play as soon as 2016.

A compassionate conservative would greatly increase his share of blacks and Hispanics and probably win Asians.

No they aren't. Seriously, where did you pull this out of your ass?

2012 results are still not final, but:

PA + 3.05 D in 2008, +2.68 D in 2012
MI + 9.15 D in 2008, + 6.94 D in 2012
WI + 6.64 D in 2008, + 4.13 D in 2012

PA, MI and WI trended Republican.


MN didn’t trend Republican:

MN + 2.97 D in 2008, + 5.11 D in 2012


Unlike 2008, Obama campaigned in all four (or Bill Clinton).
McCain campaigned in PA in 2008.

[Ljube]

@tokar

PA, MI, WI and MN are trending Republican. With a right candidate (one who can relate to white working class and turn out evangelicals = a compassionate conservative bordering populist) they can be in play as soon as 2016.

A compassionate conservative would greatly increase his share of blacks and Hispanics and probably win Asians.

Evangelicals are a shrinking constituency. If I were on the Right I would not bank on their votes.

What would you do then?

Remember, the goal is to win the election, not to merely participate.

[Ljube]

@tokar

I subtracted the national margin from the state margin. That’s how I got my numbers.

If we did that for Virginia, we would have:

VA – 0.98 D in 2008, + 0.41 D in 2012

Obviously, Virginia trending D.


Again, because you live in Virginia, could you tell me something? I noticed that the percentage of evangelicals voting in 2012 was way down compared to 2008. What was the reason for this?
I think they didn’t turn out because Mitt is a mormon.

Also, in MI, WI, PA and OH lots of working class whites didn’t turn out.
I think these are lost to the Democratic Party and that they will turn out next time to vote for a compassionate conservative with a populist message.