Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Turnout from poll watchers in 6/23 precincts that are being monitored in Whitfield suggest higher than average turnout, while statewide estimates show the opposite. I'm wondering what's causing this, since I've seen data that suggests any inclusion of weed on the ballot doesn't boost turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe they should pass out the weed after the ballots have been turned in, rather then "including it on the ballot".

They probably got hungry and left before filling it out.

We still expecting Handel to do well in Atlanta Metro or is going to be more dispersed with all the talk of her lack of education hasn't hurt her none?

[Bacon King]

Turnout from poll watchers in 6/23 precincts that are being monitored in Whitfield suggest higher than average turnout, while statewide estimates show the opposite. I'm wondering what's causing this, since I've seen data that suggests any inclusion of weed on the ballot doesn't boost turnout.

OMG TURNOUT SKYROCKETING IN PENNINGTON'S BASE

DEAL IS FINISHED

[badgate]

RIP DEAL'S CARERR

[Adam Griffin]

Maybe they should pass out the weed after the ballots have been turned in, rather then "including it on the ballot".

They probably got hungry and left before filling it out.

We still expecting Handel to do well in Atlanta Metro or is going to be more dispersed with all the talk of her lack of education hasn't hurt her none?

It'll be her strongest base I bet, but she'll still get beaten by Perdue there.

Turnout from poll watchers in 6/23 precincts that are being monitored in Whitfield suggest higher than average turnout, while statewide estimates show the opposite. I'm wondering what's causing this, since I've seen data that suggests any inclusion of weed on the ballot doesn't boost turnout.

OMG TURNOUT SKYROCKETING IN PENNINGTON'S BASE

DEAL IS FINISHED

RIP DEAL'S CARERR

NO IT'S THE WEED QUESTION

Srsly though, reports from other poll watchers and myself have all heard several disgruntled people emerge saying that they didn't get to vote on the weed question (because they thought it was both parties or a statewide vote, so they pulled an R ballot). Sad. I'll have two controls later, though: one is everything outside the Chatt media market, and the other is NW GA outside of Whitfield. I'll be able to figure out roughly how many idiots we lost along the way.

[badgate]

My post was a joke

Thanks for the analysis!

[Bacon King]

adam get in IRC to discuss results

[Bacon King]

With four thousand votes in, I'm gonna call it now that Kingston makes the runoff. He's pulling 80 percent of early voters across south GA

[Maxwell]

With four thousand votes in, I'm gonna call it now that Kingston makes the runoff. He's pulling 80 percent of early voters across south GA

Huh, yeah this is weird. He's at 68% of the vote right now

[Bacon King]

It's Kingston/Perdue unless Handel manages to pull an unexpectedly huge chunk of her old base in the metro

[Bacon King]

Perdue    29.99%
Kingston  29.02%
Handel    19.18%
Broun      10.13%
Gingrey      9.76%
Grayson     1.04%
Gardner     0.88%

Lots of ATL still out so Handel still has a bit of a chance to get in the runoff (more likely at Kingston's expense but a lot of downstate is still out as well)


Mike Buck and Dick Woods look like they're going to the GOP Superintendent Runoff, with this delightful map:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/51345/129558/en/md.html?cid=10610




Don Balfour, longest serving GOP State Senator, former chairman of the GOP Senate Caucus, former chairman of the Senate Rules Committee, former President of the National Conference of State Legislatures, is currently in third place in his primary

[Badger]

Perdue    29.99%
Kingston  29.02%
Handel    19.18%
Broun      10.13%
Gingrey      9.76%
Grayson     1.04%
Gardner     0.88%

Lots of ATL still out so Handel still has a bit of a chance to get in the runoff (more likely at Kingston's expense but a lot of downstate is still out as well)


Mike Buck and Dick Woods look like they're going to the GOP Superintendent Runoff, with this delightful map:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/51345/129558/en/md.html?cid=10610




Don Balfour, longest serving GOP State Senator, former chairman of the GOP Senate Caucus, former chairman of the Senate Rules Committee, former President of the National Conference of State Legislatures, is currently in third place in his primary

How'd that happen? Too many RINO accusations?

[Indy Texas]

Guess the GA Senate runoff isn't going to be a crazy train after all. Shame, really.

[Bacon King]

Balfour was indicted on 18 counts of perjury and theft related to filing false expense reports and subsequently suspended from office. He was subsequently found not guilty by a jury trial and allowed to return to office but there was still talk of censuring him after he returned

[Frodo]

Another Republican is considering throwing his hat into the ring among others jostling on who is the most likely to unseat Rep. John Barrow.  Article is from late last week, but I don't recall seeing it posted anywhere.

Is there anyone in the race -so far- that Barrow needs to really worry about?  

Rick Allen would be his strongest opponent, but any of the candidates currently in or looking at the race would be better than the disaster that was Lee Anderson.

I'd agree, and Barrow needs to worry about any candidate that is not a complete nut-job and/or slacker. 2012 was 54/46 - some might say being on the ballot with Obama could have hurt him a bit, but he also had a good turnout from Richmond County to pad his numbers. Augusta blacks have pretty terrible mid-term turnout when compared to black turnout statewide, so it's worrisome. Barrow could lose 2-3 points if there's a significant shift in mid-term electorate, and another 2-3 points with a credible Republican challenger. Assuming Barrow doesn't do anything stupid (likely), his floor is probably 48%, but I don't see his ceiling being any higher than 51% without someone like Anderson. If the candidates are within one point of one another, then a recall is almost guaranteed and who knows how that turns out.

Judging by the results thus far, it's pretty clear-cut that Rick Allen will be his challenger this November.

[Adam Griffin]

Sorry I've been away! I'll be filling this with lots of maps soon.



And also, look at the results of some of my Democratic Party's straw poll questions in Whitfield:


Should the State of Georgia legalize the possession of less than one ounce of marijuana for adults 21 and older?

64% Yes, 36% No

Should Whitfield County and Dalton City governments adopt a policy of diversity that expands against discrimination in employment, housing and public accommodations based upon sexual orientation and gender identity?

76% Yes, 24% No

Should the state of Georgia accept federal funds for Medicaid expansion, which would ensure those earning less than $15,000 per year ($1,250 per month) are eligible for Medicaid?

87% Yes, 13% No

Should the state of Georgia repeal HB 87, which authorizes police to demand papers demonstrating citizenship or immigration status during traffic stops?

57% Yes, 43% No

[windjammer]

I know Handel would have been much worse, but seriously, seeing her defeated is so awesome .
A pro gay right supports turned into an anti gay activist for political gains, goodbye

[Skill and Chance]

Thoughts on the GOP runoff?  I think Perdue would be likely to pick up Handel's metro Atlanta support while Kingston would gain Broun and Gingrey's bases running as the rural candidate.  If Perdue really does get most of Handel's metro support, it should be enough for him to win, but those 70-80% Kingston counties with super high turnout have to make Perdue nervous.

I wonder who Nunn would rather face?  If she gets Kingston, she can do the whole run against congress as an outsider routine and she could expect to have an easier time in the suburbs.  Perdue would cause problems for her as she would need to rely more on rural crossover support that may no longer exist.  However I think Perdue as a first time candidate is much more likely to say something ridiculous during the campaign that would give Nunn an opening.

[Bacon King]

For the next two months, Kingston and Perdue are going to be spending millions going harshly negative against each other. This is going to be vicious and everyone is underestimating the extent this will help Nunn.

[Flake]

For the next two months, Kingston and Perdue are going to be spending millions going harshly negative against each other. This is going to be vicious and everyone is underestimating the extent this will help Nunn.

Since the runoff looks like a tossup right now (Kingston leads iirc) she has time to define herself as a candidate before they define her, and she really should capitalize on that.

[Adam Griffin]

For the next two months, Kingston and Perdue are going to be spending millions going harshly negative against each other. This is going to be vicious and everyone is underestimating the extent this will help Nunn.

Since the runoff looks like a tossup right now (Kingston leads iirc) she has time to define herself as a candidate before they define her, and she really should capitalize on that.

I hope this really begins to occur soon. It seems that up until this point, she has been trying not to define herself as much of anything in an attempt to gain broad appeal. I'll admit that it's worked to some degree - I have people calling me to volunteer who wouldn't volunteer for any other Democrat (several have been Republicans).

I just worry that once the Republican nominee emerges, they're instantly going to begin painting her however they like, and that it'll work. It will be a shame for her to have had all these months to define herself thoroughly and forcefully without any push-back, only not to do so and wind up being railroaded by the tired old "OMG UR A PELOSI DEMOCRAT" schtick.

[Adam Griffin]

2010 % of primary voters who pulled a Dem ballot: 36%
2014 % of primary voters who pulled a Dem ballot: 33%

Percentage Point Increase/Decrease in Share of Democratic Ballots Pulled by Electorate, 2010-2014



TREND - Percentage Point Increase/Decrease in Share of Democratic Ballots Pulled by Electorate, 2010-2014



In Atlas colors and simplified; the same maps as above (swing on left; trend on right):

[Bacon King]

Let's play a game! Can you spot which South GA counties had competitive primaries in local elections this year?

[Flake]

Let's play a game! Can you spot which South GA counties had competitive primaries in local elections this year?

idk this was pretty tough but i think the fourth one's right
nobody here understands sarcasm, this post is bound to get somebody on my ass for drawing circles around jacksonville and griffin country

[Adam Griffin]

Let's play a game! Can you spot which South GA counties had competitive primaries in local elections this year?

RIP Dixiecrats

I could be wrong, but I'd bet a good chunk of that is a return to the mean of sorts after Dubose's media empire pushed an even greater % of the region to vote for him for Gov in the D primary in 2010. Some of those swings have to take into account both elements, though (Telfair, Dodge, Johnson; all border his home of Laurens).

EDIT: Look at the top swings to the Republicans - WTG, Dubose



And some of these Dem ones are even more perplexing: