Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #900 on: December 05, 2015, 09:21:09 AM »

Even though last year was a disappointment for me, ^that map in Ga is amazing.  Being able to match presidential results in a midterm is very good news for you guys in GA.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #901 on: December 05, 2015, 03:44:33 PM »

OK, I think I'm done now...though I may try to do Cobb (ugh) and who knows what might happen after that (after all, I've already done 1/6 of the precincts in the state), but voila:



And as always, a fun small & fast one alongside it:

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #902 on: December 05, 2015, 04:02:54 PM »

Even though last year was a disappointment for me, ^that map in Ga is amazing.  Being able to match presidential results in a midterm is very good news for you guys in GA.

Yeah, it's pretty incredible - that's the first time that has happened in a while. In some of the counties we fell a bit short, but not by much. Of the ones in the GIF above:

2012 Pres -> 2014 Gov -> (Improving Party's Gain in Performance)

Fayette: Romney 64.83% -> Deal 61.76% ->(D +2.15)
Paulding: Romney 70.98% -> Deal 67.61% -> (D +1.83)
Henry: Romney 51.10% -> Carter 49.28% -> (D +1.41)
Douglas: Obama 51.36% -> Carter 51.33% -> (D +0.96)
Carroll: Romney 67.86% -> Deal 66.83% -> (D +0.82)*
Rockdale: Obama 57.72% -> Carter 58.05% (D+0.32)
Coweta: Romney 71.17% -> Deal 69.74% -> (D +0.07)
Newton: Obama 50.45% -> Carter 49.88% -> (R+0.29)*
Gwinnett: Romney 53.76% -> Deal 54.36% (R +0.7)
Clayton: Obama 84.67% -> Carter 82.70% -> (R+1.18)

*Both parties lost ground; advantage is calculated by substracting R performance loss from D performance loss or vice-versa

So yeah, the biggest drop in performance was in a D >80% county and it was only a little over a point when adjusted for Deal's performance drop as well.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #903 on: December 05, 2015, 04:12:05 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2015, 04:24:04 PM by President Griffin »

Even though last year was a disappointment for me, ^that map in Ga is amazing.  Being able to match presidential results in a midterm is very good news for you guys in GA.

Yeah, it's pretty incredible - that's the first time that has happened in a while. In some of the counties we fell a bit short, but not by much. Of the ones in the GIF above:

2012 Pres -> 2014 Gov -> (Improving Party's Gain in Performance)

Fayette: Romney 64.83% -> Deal 61.76% ->(D +2.15)
Paulding: Romney 70.98% -> Deal 67.61% -> (D +1.83)
Henry: Romney 51.10% -> Carter 49.28% -> (D +1.41)
Douglas: Obama 51.36% -> Carter 51.33% -> (D +0.96)
Carroll: Romney 67.86% -> Deal 66.83% -> (D +0.82)*
Rockdale: Obama 57.72% -> Carter 58.05% (D+0.32)
Coweta: Romney 71.17% -> Deal 69.74% -> (D +0.07)
Newton: Obama 50.45% -> Carter 49.88% -> (R+0.29)*
Gwinnett: Romney 53.76% -> Deal 54.36% (R +0.7)
Clayton: Obama 84.67% -> Carter 82.70% -> (R+1.18)

*Both parties lost ground; advantage is calculated by substracting R performance loss from D performance loss or vice-versa

So yeah, the biggest drop in performance was in a D >80% county and it was only a little over a point when adjusted for Deal's performance drop as well.

In fact, if you average out the above as a region, then you're talking about a 0.4-point increase in the Democratic share of the vote between 2012 & 2014 (if I did my math correctly).

EDIT: Upon further inspection, I believe my initial estimate (1.4 points) was off due to faulty math, although who knows - maybe I was right the first time. I've updated it accordingly.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #904 on: December 10, 2015, 12:31:47 AM »

*sigh* I guess I'm just going to do the whole state sooner or later...

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Bacon King
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« Reply #905 on: December 10, 2015, 12:49:33 AM »

COBB COBB COBB
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #906 on: December 10, 2015, 01:21:53 AM »


I've done 2004 & 2008 but damn it's a difficult one because of all the stupid non-contiguous and oddly-shaped precincts + boundary changes
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Gass3268
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« Reply #907 on: December 11, 2015, 12:52:10 PM »

This is literally the best!
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #908 on: December 11, 2015, 04:46:06 PM »

So, would Jason Carter, Kasim Reed, Scott Holcomb, or Burrell Harris be the best recruit.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #909 on: January 16, 2016, 10:57:11 PM »

Democrat Ed Tarver eyes a potential Senate bid

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Did you hear, guys!?! Another generic black candidate for statewide office is going to "excite the state's black electorate"! Roll Eyes
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #910 on: January 16, 2016, 11:30:01 PM »

Well, the Democrats need to get someone in here. So far, they don't have even a single candidate in. Nope, they don't even have a joke perennial in a race the DSCC officially considers to be competitive.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #911 on: January 17, 2016, 11:09:17 AM »

If this guy gets the nomination, will Johnny Isakson be the first Republican Senator from the South to have never faced a white Democrat as his opponent?

Tim Scott
Marco Rubio

lol
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #912 on: February 04, 2016, 11:00:38 AM »

Very interesting, assuming this includes 2008 (and isn't just a "record" for the online system)!

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #913 on: February 05, 2016, 07:41:45 PM »

Democrat Ed Tarver eyes a potential Senate bid

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Did you hear, guys!?! Another generic black candidate for statewide office is going to "excite the state's black electorate"! Roll Eyes

I don't see anything that would make this man a bad candidate?  If he can reach a bigger slice of suburban moderates on crime, all the better.  Nunn tried and failed to reach them on reproductive health/women's issues.  I think it's better to keep trying different messages until something sticks.  Remember, it was the moderate Webb and Warner who first broke through the statewide office wall in VA.

I don't recall Nunn touching anything regarding women's issues or reproduction with a ten-foot pole...? It certainly wasn't a cornerstone of her campaign; she basically tried to say nothing in a whole lot of words.

I'm not saying the guy would be an inherently bad candidate, but consider the following:
  • Nobody knows who he is; no name recognition
  • He's a black man who was appointed by President Obama to work in Holder's Justice Department

Consider the last opponent against Isakson. Mike Thurmond was one of three remaining statewide elected Democrats after 2006 (funny enough, 2 of the 3 were black). He was well-respected, well-liked and considered a very formidable opponent. He probably would have won re-election as Labor Commissioner (along with the other two). In the end, he didn't break 40% of the vote and got well under 20% of the white vote.

My main criticism in the initial post was the media (and the party, presumably) always thinking that literally any black person will "excite the state's black electorate" based solely on the color of their skin. There have been plenty of black non-Obama candidates for state and federal office in recent Georgia history, and almost every one of them a) underperform white candidates' statewide margins, b) receive the same 90% of the black vote that any non-Obama Democratic candidate in Georgia does and c) don't inspire increased turnout.

With regards to those last two: they're connected. If black turnout was actually increasing as the result of more black people being excited about black candidates, then the black share of the vote for those candidates (or any Democratic candidate, for that matter) would increase above 90%, yet it doesn't.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #914 on: March 10, 2016, 04:34:08 PM »

Party-backed Georgia Democrat qualifies for U.S. Senate seat

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« Reply #915 on: March 10, 2016, 05:29:44 PM »

Still Likely R tbh
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« Reply #916 on: March 10, 2016, 05:46:19 PM »


There's less than zero chance that this guy will get 50%+ on election day - even if Clinton wins GA against Trump. And he'd lose in a runoff, too (even though Black turnout would not be down!). Isakson is a Republican incumbent who is relatively popular and knows how to run a strong campaign.

I agree with you in terms of election day, but we're flying blind into a runoff scenario at this point. 2008 doesn't provide good guidance because "OH MY GOD, DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO SHUT REPUBLICANS OUT IF CHAMBLISS LOSES" probably helped a TON, and plus the state has changed demographically over the last 8 years. Perhaps the absence of the presidential race from the ballot will make it easier for Barksdale to get crossover votes, especially if senate control is decided beforehand (Dems have no path to gain 14 seats and block off filibusters).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #917 on: March 10, 2016, 06:07:30 PM »


There's less than zero chance that this guy will get 50%+ on election day - even if Clinton wins GA against Trump. And he'd lose in a runoff, too (even though Black turnout would not be down!). Isakson is a Republican incumbent who is relatively popular and knows how to run a strong campaign.

While Isakson is a popular incumbent, he has never had to run a real campaign in a competitive election. It helped him that in both cases, he faced black candidates. Denise Majette was a joke candidate who nobody really knew. While Michael Thurmond was re-elected statewide as a black Democrat in 2006, he had a terribly weak campaign for Senate in 2010. Isakson's performance in both contests have been inflated as a result. However, the end result of him winning re-election is practically guaranteed.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #918 on: May 24, 2016, 06:44:04 PM »

PRIMARY TIME

Currently, Isakson is leading with 81% in his primary

Barksdale barely has a majority, 50%, against a no-name challenger Cheryl Copeland, who has 43%
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #919 on: September 17, 2016, 03:49:42 AM »

I've been working on my precinct-by-precinct map of Georgia from 2002-2014 again. I've filled in practically all of North Georgia, save for Cobb County in the midterms and Fulton/Dekalb for 2002, 2010 & 2014. Each one of these three counties for each frame easily takes an hour of time, so...it might be awhile before I have a consistent GIF for the results. The years with the counties incomplete sort of distract from the reddening of the metro, but I'll get it sooner or later.

Full-size GIF

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #920 on: September 27, 2016, 06:49:17 PM »

I checked Gwinnett's voter rolls last month and based on the numbers I saw then, it was still something like 55-56% white in real terms...? They're not counting the "Other/Unknown" categories (I did), a substantial portion of which is actually white due to the recent abolition of the requirement to mark race on the form. At any rate, glorious news!

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heatcharger
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« Reply #921 on: January 20, 2017, 08:13:42 PM »

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/01/19/jason-carter-a-middle-path-forward-for-georgia-dems-in-trump-era/

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« Reply #922 on: January 20, 2017, 09:57:18 PM »

He'd probably have a better shot with an open seat, combined with the possibility of a poor Trump performance. I'd be in full support of him running again.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #923 on: January 20, 2017, 11:03:37 PM »

He'd probably have a better shot with an open seat, combined with the possibility of a poor Trump performance. I'd be in full support of him running again.

He'd have to replicate Clinton's margins in metro Atlanta and hold onto his resoectable showing (for a Dem) in rural GA, and he has a path to 50
Plus run up the margins somewhat in micro-cities like Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, and Savannah.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #924 on: January 21, 2017, 12:40:55 AM »

I still think my home state isn't ready yet. Although heading into 2020 and Democrats somehow control the governor mansion in GA, NC, and FL should scare Republicans.
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