Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

REQUIRED VIEWING



So everyone, think Barrow will hang on? How about that Charter Schools amendment? Will Democrats have a chance at anything in 2014, or 2016? Just how much is our state trending to the left?

Discuss!

[Alcon]

Good luck...

...PEACH-BREATH FOOLS

[Bacon King]

Good luck...

...PEACH-BREATH FOOLS

oh yeah well

our state's official sweet onion can beat up your state's official sweet onion

[CultureKing]

The charter schools amendment will fail, King county/Seattle will bring it down in the end.

Oh wait..  what is this place??!!


Also Walla Walla Sweets are much better than whatever dribble of an onion you have down there.

[Adam Griffin]

I think the Amendment will be very close, but I'm leaning toward saying it will pass. There's a stranger divide on just exactly who is supporting this. There will be plenty of white, rural Republicans that vote against it and plenty of black, urban Democrats that vote for it.

[Adam Griffin]

GREAT NEWS!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/

2008 Early Vote:

White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:

White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

[Gass3268]

GREAT NEWS!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/

2008 Early Vote:

White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:

White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

Any way you could guess the final margin for this?

[Bacon King]

WOW.

Only 40% of "other" voters voted early in 2008.

Assuming the same trend holds this year, it's entirely possible that we might see a total electorate of something like, 60% white, 30% black, 10% other.

[Adam Griffin]

Oh, we would've come so close were it not for those pesky northern Georgia counties! I've completed a performance increase map (non-Atlas colors); what was interesting was that at least half of the counties did not give more than 1.5 points in one direction or another. Romney - as of this post - received 1.33 percentage points more than McCain did and it would appear a large portion of that originated from NE Georgia.



Also, I posted this a few days ago in another topic. I haven't been able to find voting results by race yet, but I'm willing to guess based on my graphic below that:

The electorate was approximately 62% white Actual: (61.4%)
Whites voted for Romney 79/20%
Non-whites voted for Obama 91/9%



I think this is a very good result for Georgia and its future Democratic prospects - especially when you look at the swings throughout the rest of the South.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia Dem/Rep Increase ("Half-Swing"), 2000-2012 (non-Atlas colors)

[Barnes]

Wonderful maps!  Proud to see that my home county (Newton) is part of that Metro Atlanta Democratic trend!

In other news, Charter Schools passed by a disgustingly large 58-42 margin, and the Republicans almost captured a 2/3 majority in both houses of the legislature.  Good God...

[Bacon King]

Wow, yeah, awesome maps!

And indeed, it was especially bad to see Doug Stoner lose to the GOP gerrymander.

For those who don't know, the composition of a locality's delegation is very important in the Georgia General Assembly. The practice of local deference requires all "local bills" that affect specific counties/cities/etc to first be approved by a majority of all legislators with any part of their district's territory covering that area, before it's considered at all by the rest of the chamber.

The GOP pulled an atrocious gerrymander with Fulton County in redistricting: you can see it in the State Senate map but it's even worse in the State House map. You see, in the latter map, how HDs 22, 25, 40, and 95 each dip into Fulton County to take in a single precinct? Because of all this, Fulton County is now represented in the House by 13 Republicans and 12 Democrats, and in the Senate by 7 Republicans and 4 Democrats. GA Republicans can now impose literally whatever they want on Fulton County.

[Bacon King]

Cross-posting this analysis here. As soon as these seats are open (or there's a serious primary challenger) then the number of white Democrats in the legislature will shrink even more than the 12 or so that lost last week. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Democrats' already depleted bench, unless you think a black could win statewide (Kasim Reed maybe?).

Georgia State Senate: 56 members total; 18 Democrats (5 white Democrats)

Curt Thompson (District 5): He represents a slice of Gwinnett County cutting from Norcross to northern Lawrenceville.
SD 5 is 38% Hispanic, 28% Black.
Steve Thompson (District 33): He represents a slice of Cobb County from Austell to Central Marietta.
SD 33 is 34% Black, 16% Hispanic.
Nan Orrack (District 36): She represents a district centered around Midtown and Downtown Atlanta.
SD 36 is 57% Black (but the whites here are very liberal).
Steve Henson (District 41): He represents a district that reaches from Central Dekalb to Tucker, and then extends a tendril into Gwinnett to take in part of Lilburn. SD 41 is 50% Black, 12% Hispanic.
Jason Carter (District 42): He represents a Decatur-based district. Tons of white liberals.
SD 42 is 24% Black, 12% Hispanic.


Georgia State House: 180 members; 60 Democrats (13 white Democrats).

Stacey Evans (District 42): She represents Southeast Marietta, in Cobb County.
HD 42 is 39% Black, 23% Hispanic.
Pat Gardner (District 57): She represents a precinct-wide strip of territory from super-black to super-white Atlanta.
HD 57 is 55% Black.
Margaret Kaiser (District 59): She represents a district like Gardner's.
HD 59 is 56% Black.
Scott Holcomb (District 81): He represents the Chamblee/Doraville area, in northern Dekalb County.
HD 81 is 35% Hispanic, 10% Black.
Mary Oliver (District 82): She represents the white liberals in the Druid Hills area north of Decatur.
HD 82 is 20% Hispanic, 15% Black.
Karla Drenner (District 85): She represents another noodle district, taking in liberal whites north of Decatur as well as blacks south of Decatur.
HD 85 is 57% Black.
Michelle Henson (District 86): She represents another noodle, directly to the East of Drenner's district.
HD 86 is 61% Black.
Pam Stephenson (District 90): She represents some territory bisected by the Henry-Rockdale County line.
HD 90 is 67% Black.
Hugh Floyd (District 99): He represents a district between Lilburn and Norcross in SW Gwinnett.
HD 99 is 52% Hispanic, 22% Black.
Brian Thomas (District 100): He represents the area just north of Lilburn in Gwinnett County.
HD 100 is 34% Hispanic, 32% Black.
Spencer Frye (District 118): He represents the northern half of Athens-Clarke.
HD 118 is 30% Black, 12% Hispanic.
Debbie Buckner (District 137): She represents the outskirts of Columbus and adjacent rural territory.
HD 137 is 52% Black.
Carol Fullerton (District 153): She represents northeastern Albany.
HD 153 is 59% Black.




(All figures are VAP for 2010 Census, taken directly from the legislature's redistricting reports)

[old timey villain]

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

[Bacon King]

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

Indeed. My ideal statewide candidates for 2014 would probably be Kasim Reed for Governor, and John Barrow for Senate; I think they could both have a decent chance of winning. Any idea of either of them have plans for higher office?

[Barnes]

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

Indeed. My ideal statewide candidates for 2014 would probably be Kasim Reed for Governor, and John Barrow for Senate; I think they could both have a decent chance of winning. Any idea of either of them have plans for higher office?

I know Reed has said he has no plans during his current term (which ends in Jan. 2014), but it seems fairly likely that he will run.  Barrow seems to have found the ability to barely hang on regardless oft eh political climate, so I'm not sure if he'll be willing to sacrifice his seat.  He'll most definitely be watching the polling over the next year to see if Saxby is still as unpopular as he was in '08.

[Bacon King]

http://gawker.com/5960846/gop-lawmakers-in-georgia-hold-closed+door-session-on-conspiracy-theory-involving-president-obama-the-united-nations-and-mind-control

WTF, Georgia Republicans?

[Barnes]

http://gawker.com/5960846/gop-lawmakers-in-georgia-hold-closed+door-session-on-conspiracy-theory-involving-president-obama-the-united-nations-and-mind-control

WTF, Georgia Republicans?

*Sigh* So glad to see my favorite show, "The Kangaroo Court Legislature," got renewed for another two years!

[Bacon King]

I figured I'd post this here since the Georgia Redistricting Thread seems to be so far back I couldn't find it.

Yesterday in IRC, Adam Griffin showed me a redistricted Georgia, with ten Democratic seats, which he claimed was inspired by Georgia's 2002-2004 Congressional map.

I found his effort lacking as it didn't overreach nearly enough, or have boundaries nearly insane enough, to accurately claim to be a successor to the 2002 Barnes-o-mander. While it does ignore the VRA, here's my effort at a true Democratic gerrymander worthy of Georgia's history. 11 seats that voted for Obama, only 3 that voted for McCain. Isn't it beautiful?!?

[Benj]

By how much, though? Unless you're drawing Obama-voting seats that a Democrat should usually win, it's pretty pointless. I'd take 8 56% Obama seats over 11 50% Obama seats any day.

[Barnes]

I figured I'd post this here since the Georgia Redistricting Thread seems to be so far back I couldn't find it.

Yesterday in IRC, Adam Griffin showed me a redistricted Georgia, with ten Democratic seats, which he claimed was inspired by Georgia's 2002-2004 Congressional map.

I found his effort lacking as it didn't overreach nearly enough, or have boundaries nearly insane enough, to accurately claim to be a successor to the 2002 Barnes-o-mander. While it does ignore the VRA, here's my effort at a true Democratic gerrymander worthy of Georgia's history. 11 seats that voted for Obama, only 3 that voted for McCain. Isn't it beautiful?!?

That's rather beautiful, BK.

And you're right, the Republicans have no idea how to gerrymander like the Democrats used to.

[Bacon King]

By how much, though? Unless you're drawing Obama-voting seats that a Democrat should usually win, it's pretty pointless. I'd take 8 56% Obama seats over 11 50% Obama seats any day.

Well, that's kind of the point- the Democrats reached for seven seats with the 2002 map, but only got five

But here's the margins below! Note that there's definitely room for improvement; what with safe districts next to very marginal districts; this was more a proof of concept than anything.

Cream: Obama +15.4
Dark Blue: Obama + 11.0
Light Blue in NE: Obama + 10.1
Purple: Obama + 9.8
Dark Orange: Obama + 6.4
Lime Green in NW: Obama + 4.9
Light Gray: Obama + 2.4
Light Orange: Obama + 1.9
Light Blue in SE: Obama + 1.9
Lime Green in SW: Obama + 1.9
Dark Gray: Obama + 1.8

Black: McCain + 44.6
Pink: McCain + 49.4
Brown: McCain + 49.6

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here was my far more modest Democratic gerrymander I posted a few months ago:




Most likely a 7-7 map.

[CatoMinor]

Children, step aside and let a man show you how to draw a map. a 12-2 Obama map that is.



District 1: Obama 23.4%, McCain 75.%
District 2: Obama 50.1%, McCain 49.3%
District 3: Obama 49.6%, McCain 49.6%
District 4: Obama 49.6%, McCain 46.6%
District 5: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.4%
District 6: Obama 50%, McCain 49.1%
District 7: Obama 60.2%, McCain 39%
District 8: Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.6%
District 9: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.5%
District 10: Obama 49.9%, McCain 49.6%
District 11: Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.5%
District 12: Obama 50%, McCain 49.5%
District 13: Obama 49.8%%, McCain 49.6%
District 14: Obama 24.3%, McCain 75%

[Frodo]

Children, step aside and let a man show you how to draw a map.



District 1: Obama 23.4%, McCain 75.%
District 2: Obama 50.1%, McCain 49.3%
District 3: Obama 49.6%, McCain 49.6%
District 4: Obama 49.6%, McCain 46.6%
District 5: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.4%
District 6: Obama 50%, McCain 49.1%
District 7: Obama 60.2%, McCain 39%
District 8: Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.6%
District 9: Obama 49.8%, McCain 49.5%
District 10: Obama 49.9%, McCain 49.6%
District 11: Obama 49.7%, McCain 49.5%
District 12: Obama 50%, McCain 49.5%
District 13: Obama 49.8%%, McCain 49.6%
District 14: Obama 24.3%, McCain 75%

And what does the current map look like in comparison?