Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Why did so many whites leave Clayton County? And where did they go? To further outlying Atlanta area counties?

The Olympics helped in part; a lot of land was bought up from mostly white property owners to build event arenas as I understand it. Then there was of course the general white flight that was occurring all around the (then) outskirts of Atlanta, as well as a boom of black growth to Atlanta from other areas. There are other counties where the changes were almost as massive; Gwinnett went from 90% white to 44% white over the same time period, and is almost three times the size of Clayton. Rockdale and Douglas underwent similar changes.

It seems based on anecdotal observation that most of the whites that fled Clayton went to Fayette in particular, and Henry. Peachtree City is filled with former Riverdale folk.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/nation/census/2010/

(light pink = plurality white; pink = majority-white; red = >85% white)
(light blue = plurality black; blue = majority-black)

[Adam Griffin]

Jason Carter raises more than $2 mil in Q2.

[Adam Griffin]

BOOYA!

[QUOTE]Democrat Jason Carter’s campaign was hoping to stay in the ballpark against Gov. Nathan Deal’s donor network. Instead, the Atlanta state senator outpaced the Republican incumbent’s fundraising machine in the three months between April and June.

Deal’s campaign said Tuesday it raised $1.27 million in the second quarter and has $2.6 million in cash on hand going into the final four or so months ahead of the November election. Carter’s camp raised $2.02 million in the same timeframe and has $1.8 million in the bank.

The surprising results will be hard for Deal’s camp to spin, one reason they were likely released so late on Tuesday evening. The campaign noted, though, that 92 percent of its donors came from within the state. A Democratic source said about 70 percent of Carter’s supporters were in-state. We’ll be able to crunch the numbers when we get the full reports.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/07/08/jason-carter-outraises-gov-nathan-deal-in-latest-fundraising-report/

[Barnes]

Yeah, that was pretty great!

I really feel that the Republicans are going to treat this like the Dems treated the 2002 elections and look at the race as a sleeper.  We all saw how that worked out for Barnes and Cleland...

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, that was pretty great!

I really feel that the Republicans are going to treat this like the Dems treated the 2002 elections and look at the race as a sleeper.  We all saw how that worked out for Barnes and Cleland...

Let's hope so. But we have to remember that in the GA-Gov money race, this isn't necessarily anything new. The only time that a Republican candidate for Governor outraised the Democratic candidate was in 2006 (Barnes outraised Perdue and Deal, and yet lost both times).

[Barnes]

Yeah, that was pretty great!

I really feel that the Republicans are going to treat this like the Dems treated the 2002 elections and look at the race as a sleeper.  We all saw how that worked out for Barnes and Cleland...

Let's hope so. But we have to remember that in the GA-Gov money race, this isn't necessarily anything new. The only time that a Republican candidate for Governor outraised the Democratic candidate was in 2006 (Barnes outraised Perdue and Deal, and yet lost both times).

True, but this is the first time in modern memory where the incumbent was outraised by a challenger.

[Barnes]

Question to my fellow Democratic compatriots here, you are y'all supporting in the Democratic runoff for school superintendent?  I do believe our votes will make all the difference seeing as I expect this race to set a new record of low turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Obviously this is a big f-ing deal:

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Then the interview:

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Keep in mind, this was the lady who has been accused of being Nathan Deal's lapdog and ally in dismissing charges.

It's also referenced that federal authorities already had a copy of this memo. With the public revelations, it wouldn't surprise me if we hear from the FBI really soon. It's becoming quite possible that Nathan Deal is indicted by federal authorities before the election.

[Adam Griffin]

News just gets better and better!

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[Barnes]

Hahaha

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[illegaloperation]

Hahaha

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The problem is Georgia is willing to elect any corrupt bastard with an R next to his name.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, I'd imagine we're beginning to reach a saturation point with "Nathan Deal is a corrupt asshole" stories. How much more impact could it have?

[Barnes]

You both fail to see the absolute joy this is Georgia Dems on this board, though.  We have known since 2010 (well, actually probably before) that Deal is a corrupt, crooked, shady, asshole; however, finally at long last, the rest of the state is starting to realize that.  Maybe, just maybe, the wall of ignorant admiration that most Georgians carry about their "God-lovin, gun-toting, Obama-bashing" right-wingers will start to crumble.  Even a few cracks are good for me.

[RogueBeaver]

Perdue went apesh**t and walked out of a Chamber meeting because they wouldn't endorse him.

[Adam Griffin]

You both fail to see the absolute joy this is Georgia Dems on this board, though.  We have known since 2010 (well, actually probably before) that Deal is a corrupt, crooked, shady, asshole; however, finally at long last, the rest of the state is starting to realize that.  Maybe, just maybe, the wall of ignorant admiration that most Georgians carry about their "God-lovin, gun-toting, Obama-bashing" right-wingers will start to crumble.  Even a few cracks are good for me.

Not to mention that this most recent admission - by the lady who has been accused of being Deal's puppet for so long - is a whole other level above the rest of the stuff. This is actually damning and dangerous for them, which is why you see the Gov saying "why didn't we know?", and the AG scuttling left and right about the memo.

[illegaloperation]

Here's a new banner from some of Nathan Deal's supporters:

VOTE FOR THE CROOK:
IT’S IMPORTANT

[free my dawg]

Meanwhile, on the Senatorial sides of things, Jack Kingston joins the impeachment train.

Given that this is Georgia, I don't think this will change much.

[Maxwell]

Meanwhile, on the Senatorial sides of things, Jack Kingston joins the impeachment train.

Given that this is Georgia, I don't think this will change much.

I feel like Perdue will win the primary now, because this is a sign of desperation.

[Adam Griffin]

Meanwhile, on the Senatorial sides of things, Jack Kingston joins the impeachment train.

Given that this is Georgia, I don't think this will change much.

I feel like Perdue will win the primary now, because this is a sign of desperation.

On the ground, Perdue seems like a long-shot at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if Kingston won this by 20 points in the end. All the major power-players are lining up behind him, and even the Tea Party (whether that is by coincidence or merely not wanting to lose; they don't really have a candidate anyway) is doing the same.

Oh well, at least we're getting good soundbites...

I think Perdue is the one who's getting desperate now.

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[Bojack Horseman]

Both Carter and Nunn's poll numbers seem to be imploding...this amidst the fundraising surge?

[Adam Griffin]

Both Carter and Nunn's poll numbers seem to be imploding...this amidst the fundraising surge?

I'm not sure what you mean. Nunn's haven't collapsed at all:



And in regards to Carter...it looks more like general variance across the board/higher number of undecideds in the last poll or two (this doesn't include the most recent one where they're essentially tied):



Let's wait and see what a post-Holly LaBerge poll looks like for the Governor's race.

[illegaloperation]

Sabato talking about possible runoffs: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-2014-07-16/

If Carter and Nunn forced the election into a runoff, there will have to be two runoffs: Dec. 2 for gubernatorial runoff and Jan. 6 for senate runoff.

Since runoff favors Republican, this would not be an ideal scenario.

Anyway, can Carter and Nunn each win a runoff?

[Adam Griffin]

Sabato talking about possible runoffs: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-2014-07-16/

If Carter and Nunn forced the election into a runoff, there will have to be two runoffs: Dec. 2 for gubernatorial runoff and Jan. 6 for senate runoff.

Since runoff favors Republican, this would not be an ideal scenario.

Anyway, can Carter and Nunn each win a runoff?

It's not likely. Each need to beat the Republican by 3 or more to avoid a run-off (counting likely Libertarian share of the vote). The Republicans knew what they were doing when they redid the election calendar this year: moving the primary from July to May (to screw Broun) and separating the state/federal general runoffs (to screw Carter/Nunn). We can't even get our voters out for one runoff; look at the difference between the 2008 Senate general and general runoffs for proof. There's more ground game in Georgia right now than in 2008, but I still don't believe it'd be anywhere near enough to win in a runoff scenario. We have to bury the Republicans in November or bust.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Sabato talking about possible runoffs: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-2014-07-16/

If Carter and Nunn forced the election into a runoff, there will have to be two runoffs: Dec. 2 for gubernatorial runoff and Jan. 6 for senate runoff.

Since runoff favors Republican, this would not be an ideal scenario.

Anyway, can Carter and Nunn each win a runoff?

It's not likely. Each need to beat the Republican by 3 or more to avoid a run-off (counting likely Libertarian share of the vote). The Republicans knew what they were doing when they redid the election calendar this year: moving the primary from July to May (to screw Broun) and separating the state/federal general runoffs (to screw Carter/Nunn). We can't even get our voters out for one runoff; look at the difference between the 2008 Senate general and general runoffs for proof. There's more ground game in Georgia right now than in 2008, but I still don't believe it'd be anywhere near enough to win in a runoff scenario. We have to bury the Republicans in November or bust.

So they don't need to crack 50, just to beat their opponents by say a 48-45-7 margin?

[Maxwell]

Both Carter and Nunn's poll numbers seem to be imploding...this amidst the fundraising surge?

The last two polls showed Carter up by nearly 10 points.