Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Fantastic news! Let's hope Fulton and Clayton follow suit. Dekalb alone was home to 15% of all Democratic votes cast statewide in 2008.

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[Ban my account ffs!]

Yyyyyyaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy. GA...A BEACON OF HOPE IN A SEA OF POOP.

[Adam Griffin]

SMEAR CAMPAIGNS

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/09/09/gop-state-senator-says-first-sunday-vote-in-dekalb-will-be-the-last/

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http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/state-launches-fraud-investigation-voter-registrat/nhJxg/

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[Adam Griffin]

NRSC: We’ve Spent Enough on #GASen

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http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/09/11/nrsc-weve-spent-enough-on-gasen/

[Flake]

Very smart move.

[KCDem]

Excellent news! The Democratic tidal wave in November will sweep all three corrupt Rethuglicans out of office.

[Adam Griffin]

A fun little map I've been wanting to make for a while. This pits Barack Obama (2012) against Roy Barnes (2010), and shows which candidate received a greater percentage of the vote in that county. Counties in red are counties where Barnes did better than Obama; blue are counties where Obama did better than Barnes. The key indicates how many more percentage points one candidate received over the other. I think there are a lot of potentially interesting observations to make about this (like which counties/regions have turnout problems among minorities in mid-terms, and which counties/regions have larger amounts of racial intolerance).



And without gradient:

[Flake]

Why did Barnes perform worse than Obama in the Northwestern portion of the state?

[Adam Griffin]

Why did Barnes perform worse than Obama in the Northwestern portion of the state?

Well, this is my home, so maybe I have an answer. I think simply that the area is swinging and/or trending to the Democrats, albeit very slowly on the whole. The area surrounding my home county (Whitfield) is undergoing a pretty rapid demographic shift with Latinos becoming a significant chunk of the population, while Chattanooga's metro continues to sprawl into Georgia along the Dade/Walker/Catoosa part of the state line. I've also been working hard in Whitfield for going on 4 years now.

I'll also add that this area has never been as great for Democrats as many other parts of the state due to a historic lack of minorities/less resentment toward the Union; Sherman didn't burn down NW Georgia like he did most of the rest of the state (though many battles were fought here for the railways). Still...whites tend to be more Democratic as a whole here in the modern era than in many other parts of rural/suburban Georgia, so it wouldn't surprise me if Obama didn't really suffer all that much from a racial element. This makes me think that it probably just came down to turnout and the default factor of non-whites not showing up proportionately for the mid-terms (as opposed to many other areas, which would also experience that variable + racial backlash).

Take a look at the 2010/2014 primary comparison map (trend) I made a few months ago, which measured the percentage-point change in the share of people who pulled a D/R ballot.



You'll see the same bloc of counties sticking out. Whitfield and Catoosa actually swung Democratic (3 points and 1.5 points, respectively), while all five of the same counties trended Democratic in this regard (Whitfield trended 6; Catoosa 4.5). Here's the swing map of the same data.

[Adam Griffin]

More fantastic news! I just got my hands on some raw voter registration data for the entire year; time to do some comparisons!

Total number of new registrations in 2010 (1/1 - 9/1)
109,300 (54% under the age of 30)

Total number of new registrations in 2014 (1/1 - 9/1)
103,600 (59% under the age of 30)

Registration numbers appear to be down from 2010, which is not a good sign for turnout. The silver lining is that roughly the same number of youngs have registered as in 2010, with the net reduction in new RVs coming exclusively from olds.

New registrations by race in first nine months of 2010:
White 53.5%
Black 33.0%
Latino 8.2%
Asian 3.0%
Other 2.3%

New registrations by race in first nine months of 2014:
White 46.3%
Black 36.5%
Latino 12.0%
Asian 3.2%
Other 2.0%

One notable fact is that this appears to be the first election year in Georgia in which a majority of people who have registered to vote are non-white. Latino registration appears to be skyrocketing, and black registration continues to grow even stronger.



I was also able to get voter registration numbers by county, and I broke them down into four regions (color-coded above). Huge discrepancies (positive for Democrats) in the core counties of Atlanta.

Metro Atlanta
2008: 53.3% McCain
20,444 RVs
19.7% of 2014 RVs; 20.0% of state population

Metro Core
2008: 73.7% Obama
27,612 RVs
26.6% of 2014 RVs; 18.7% of state population

Satellite Urban Areas
2008: 61.3% Obama
11,794 RVs
11.4% of 2014 RVs; 10.2% of state population

Everywhere Else
2008: 66.7% McCain
43,771 RVs
42.3% of 2014 RVs; 47.8% of state population

All in all, 2014 expected newly-registered voter breakdown is 55% D, 45% R.

[Nhoj]

I think you misplaced Dougherty County.

[Adam Griffin]

I think you misplaced Dougherty County.

That I did!

[Adam Griffin]

Two more fun maps, showing the dominant party (most votes cast) in the 2004 Senate primary and the 2008 Presidential primary. My, how things have changed:

2004 Senate Primary:



2008 Presidential Primary:

[Hamster]

Fantastic news! Let's hope Fulton and Clayton follow suit. Dekalb alone was home to 15% of all Democratic votes cast statewide in 2008.

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We're trying to make this happen in Athens, stay tuned.

[Adam Griffin]

Added the last two to my old GIF. 1998 & 2010 are gubernatorial, 2004 is senatorial and 2008 is presidential.

[Bacon King]

On Sunday I'll be down in south GA helping my dad to settle some stuff with my grandparents' estate. I will have a lot of conversation time with several of my aunts and uncles who are very politically-minded. So please post any questions or topics you would like discussed in next edition of BK's Family PoliticsWatch: ElectionTracker 2014

[eric82oslo]

On Sunday I'll be down in south GA helping my dad to settle some stuff with my grandparents' estate. I will have a lot of conversation time with several of my aunts and uncles who are very politically-minded. So please post any questions or topics you would like discussed in next edition of BK's Family PoliticsWatch: ElectionTracker 2014

How is it impacting the campaign that Nunn is being endorsed by so many prominent Republicans? Two former Republican Senators (Richard Lugar, Indiana & John Warner, Virginia), Neil Bush and probably more. [As well as from Zell Miller.]

[Flake]

How do you feel about Deal, Carter, Nunn, and Perdue?

Who's your favorite candidate that you'll vote for this year?

Do you think Deal's done a good job with education?

[JerryArkansas]

To 2016, who do you like besides Clinton?  Is there any Republican you are willing to vote for.  Vis Versa if they are Republican.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

1) What is do they think about Kasim Reed, John Barrow, Sam Olens, and Brian Kemp.

2) If Isakson retired, would they be open to voting for Barrow if he runs for the open seat?

[eric82oslo]

Do they support same sex marriage (in Georgia or nationwide)?
Do they favour increasing the minimum wage to $10?
Do they favour Medical marijuana? Decriminalizing it? Legalizing it completely and put taxes on sales (to go to pay for education or whatever)?
Do they support comprehensive immigration reform?
What's their take on background checks for all gun sales, including on internet & gun shows?
Do they support the death penalty? If yes, why? Should there be a higher age limit on the death penalty?
Do they support Hillary for president? Is it an embarrassment that the US has never elected a female president?
What do they think of Libertarian ideas/Libertarian party in general?
Should released prisoners in all 50 states immediately get back their voting rights once they're released?
What do they think of Stand Your Ground laws?
Do they think Georgia will become a presidential battleground soon?
If they were to move to any other US state, which one would they most likely choose? And which one would they definitely not move to?
Do they think there should be made laws (either nationally or statewide) outlawing district gerrymandering and (Senate) filibustering?
Should DC and Puerto Rico be allowed statehood if they so wish? (there's no question of course that DC wants it)
What's their opinion about Bill Gates?
Should the US travel ban on Cuba be lifted? And the trade embargo?
Should the US knit closer ties with Latin America, when it comes to trade (expansion of NAFTA?), aid, military cooperation (expansion of NATO perhaps), higher legal immigration levels, more expansive political cooperation in general?

[Nhoj]

Georgia has surpassed Mississippi to have the highest unemployment rate in the nation.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/09/19/georgia-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation/


Edit:and now Deal in response is claiming a conspiracy against him.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/georgia-nathan-deal-unemployment-data-111123.html

[IceSpear]

Georgia has surpassed Mississippi to have the highest unemployment rate in the nation.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/09/19/georgia-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation/


Edit:and now Deal in response is claiming a conspiracy against him.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/georgia-nathan-deal-unemployment-data-111123.html

The Republican denial of facts when it doesn't suit their narrative is getting into self parody territory.

[windjammer]

1) Do they know that their favorite member of their family (you) is a liberal? How do they react?
2) Are they still registered as democrat?
3) Opinion of SSM, the gays,...?
4) Which candidate do they prefer more? Carter or Nunn?

[Flake]

1) Do they know that their favorite member of their family (you) is a liberal? How do they react?
2) Are they still registered as democrat?
3) Opinion of SSM, the gays,...?
4) Which candidate do they prefer more? Carter or Nunn?

So gramma, how do you feel about the gays?