Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Fantastic news! Let's hope Fulton and Clayton follow suit. Dekalb alone was home to 15% of all Democratic votes cast statewide in 2008.

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Updates on Sunday early voting (and other similar modifications) in Georgia!

Since September 8th:

Lowndes County was the second county to implement Sunday early voting, and will have early voting in one location on Oct 26.

Fulton County has also signed onto Sunday early voting, and unlike Dekalb (with 3 precincts being opened on a Sunday), Fulton will do two weeks of early Sunday voting (Oct 19 & 26) - the first week will have 7 precincts open and the last Sunday will have more than 20 precincts open.

Clayton County will hold 5 hours of early Sunday voting at one location on Oct 26 (12:00 - 5:00 PM).

Chatham County announced a couple of days ago that it will also open Sunday early voting on October 26, from noon to 5 PM.

Bibb County had considered early Sunday voting - with the Operations Committee for the county setting aside the $3,000 needed to provide the one day of early voting, but the Bibb County Board of Elections voted 3-2 tonight to not allow Sunday early voting due to "financial concerns", it being a "partisan thing" and a "way just to wring out every last vote".

Rockdale County also voted this evening to not allow Sunday early voting, despite a majority of the public attendees supporting early Sunday voting.

Gwinnett County has not weighed in on the matter of Sunday early voting, but it will offer two new early in-person voting locations for this November's elections (bringing the total of early voting locations to 6, instead of 4). Both of these new locations are in heavily Republican areas of the county.

Morgan County cut its total number of precincts last year from 11 to 7, resulting in black and Democratic precincts being mostly eliminated and fused with Republican precincts, which will require individuals in these former, poorer precincts to commute anywhere from 5-10 miles farther to vote.

All in all, this is what the Sunday early voting map currently looks like:



Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
37.4%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
13.7%

[Adam Griffin]

Carter's new ad, "51st".

[Indy Texas]

Carter's new ad, "51st".

Not to nitpick, but "51st in unemployment" makes it sound like Georgia has the lowest unemployment rate.

[Adam Griffin]

Carter's new ad, "51st".

Not to nitpick, but "51st in unemployment" makes it sound like Georgia has the lowest unemployment rate.

I blame the BLS.

Though in all fairness, they don't use the term "51st in unemployment"; they said "51st, worst in the nation in unemployment" and "Georgia has the highest unemployment rate in the country".

But what I think will be really effective with this ad (and was no doubt intentional) is this:



There isn't a quicker way to get Southrons from civilized states upset quicker than to show them that their indicators are worse than Mississippi or Alabama. Just ask Bev Perdue.

[Tender Branson]

Or they could use this map in the ad:

[Adam Griffin]

We can now add Richmond County to the growing list of counties that will offer Sunday early voting:

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Now, the map looks like this:



Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
40.2%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
15.0%

[Bacon King]

just for a random update, John Barrow's ad team continues to be awesome in this cycle

[Maxwell]

just for a random update, John Barrow's ad team continues to be awesome in this cycle

I'm not a fan of Blue Dogs, but his ads are fantastic. Hell, I would consider voting for him.

Especially because his opponent has an ad where he literally says the debt is immoral because of the bible.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Georgia has surpassed Mississippi to have the highest unemployment rate in the nation.
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/09/19/georgia-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation/

We're winning!

But Conservative policies create jobs !

[Barnes]

I had no idea John Barrow - excuse me, Barrah - sounded like that.

[Lief 🗽]

John Barrow's accent is crazy and makes no sense at all to me.

[JRP1994]

Plus he's a Harvard grad. Just throwing that out there.

[Maxwell]

I feel like he may be Frank Underwood.

[Bacon King]

I feel like he may be Frank Underwood.

Now that you mention it...

John Barrow is "perhaps the most shameless, duplicitous, self-serving politician of his era."

[nolesfan2011]

John Barrow's accent is crazy and makes no sense at all to me.

I sound like John Barra and yes he has awesome ads, did in 2010 too

[Adam Griffin]

Update on this: Muscogee County has ruled out Sunday early voting. All of the major satellite counties have weighed in, so I don't expect there to be any other huge chunks of Georgia approving Sunday voting for the election at this point.

Updates on Sunday early voting (and other similar modifications) in Georgia!

Since September 8th:

Lowndes County was the second county to implement Sunday early voting, and will have early voting in one location on Oct 26.

Fulton County has also signed onto Sunday early voting, and unlike Dekalb (with 3 precincts being opened on a Sunday), Fulton will do two weeks of early Sunday voting (Oct 19 & 26) - the first week will have 7 precincts open and the last Sunday will have more than 20 precincts open.

Clayton County will hold 5 hours of early Sunday voting at one location on Oct 26 (12:00 - 5:00 PM).

Chatham County announced a couple of days ago that it will also open Sunday early voting on October 26, from noon to 5 PM.

Bibb County had considered early Sunday voting - with the Operations Committee for the county setting aside the $3,000 needed to provide the one day of early voting, but the Bibb County Board of Elections voted 3-2 tonight to not allow Sunday early voting due to "financial concerns", it being a "partisan thing" and a "way just to wring out every last vote".

Rockdale County also voted to not allow Sunday early voting, despite a majority of the public attendees supporting early Sunday voting.

Richmond County will have Sunday early voting from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Oct. 26 at the board’s main location inside the municipal building.

Muscogee County also voted to not allow Sunday early voting, a will commission a study to decide whether to allow it for the 2016 elections.

Gwinnett County has not weighed in on the matter of Sunday early voting, but it will offer two new early in-person voting locations for this November's elections (bringing the total of early voting locations to 6, instead of 4). Both of these new locations are in heavily Republican areas of the county.

Morgan County cut its total number of precincts last year from 11 to 7, resulting in black and Democratic precincts being mostly eliminated and fused with Republican precincts, which will require individuals in these former, poorer precincts to commute anywhere from 5-10 miles farther to vote.

All in all, this is what the Sunday early voting map currently looks like:



Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
40.2%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
15.0%

[Adam Griffin]

New Carter ad. I know the guy in the purple shirt; they're actually using real people for these.

[Bacon King]

New PPP poll for Georgia featuring downballot races and juicy crosstabs. For the downballot races I have taken the liberty of labeling incumbency and partisan affiliation so y'all out of state folks can still follow along

Interestingly, the headline results here are contrary to the conventional wisdom that Carter is campaigning better than Nunn. Some of the most favorably viewed people in Georgia might surprise you! Also people think a $10 minimum wage is pretty cool, are mostly #Ready4Hillary but not for the #CainTrain, and the Braves & UGA are both still hegemon (if you particularly care the poll details has more questions about their coaching staff and etc)


Gubernatorial Election
46% Nathan Deal
41% Jason Carter
  4% Random Libertarian

Runoff/"Combined Horse Race"
50% Nathan Deal
45% Jason Carter


Senatorial Election
45% David Perdue
43% Michelle Nunn
  5% Random Libertarian

Runoff/"combined horse race"
48% David Perdue
45% Michelle Nunn


Lieutenant Governor
48% Casey Cagle (R)(i)
37% Connie Stokes (D)

Attorney General
45% Sam Olens (R)(i)
36% Greg Hecht (D)

Agriculture Commissioner
45% Gary Black (R)(i)
36% Chris Irvin (D)

Insurance Commissioner
41% Ralph Hudgens (R)(i)
34% Liz Johnson (D)
10% Random Libertarian (L)

Labor Commissioner
45% Mark Butler (R)(i)
36% Robbin Shipp

Secretary of State
48% Brian Kemp (R)(i)
39% Doreen Carter (D)

State Superintendent
46% Richard Woods (R)
40% Valarie Wilson (D)


Favorability and Approvals!
(fornatted as positive vs negative, followed by net rating;
an asterisk indicates the question was about job approval, not favorability)

MLK Junior:	72% vs 16% (+56)
Paula Deen:	58% vs 23% (+35)
Sam Nunn:	54% vs 20% (+34)
Jimmy Carter:	50% vs 40% (+10)
Herman Cain:	43% vs 38% (  +5)
Jason Carter:	39% vs 36% (  +3)
*Saxby Chambliss:	39% vs 36% (  +3)
*Johnny Isakson:	38% vs 35% (  +3)
*Nathan Deal:	43% vs 42% (  +1)
Sonny Perdue:	42% vs 42% ( +/-)
Michelle Nunn:	41% vs 42% (   -1)
David Perdue:	39% vs 43% (   -4)
Newt Gingrich:	42% vs 47% (   -5)
*Barack Obama:	41% vs 54% ( -13)

2016 Presidential Questions and Match-ups

57% think that Herman Cain should not run for President again
64% think that Newt Gingrich should not run for President again

44% Hillary Clinton
45% Jeb Bush (+1)

48% Hillary Clinton (+3)
45% Herman Cain

46% Hillary Clinton (+5)
41% Chris Christie

47% Hillary Clinton (+6)
41% Ted Cruz

49% Hillary Clinton (+6)
43% Newt Gingrich

48% Hillary Clinton (+3)
45% Mike Huckabee

47% Hillary Clinton (+3)
44% Rand Paul


Policy Questions and Sports

Raise Minimum Wage to $10/hour?
56% Support
38% Oppose

Accept federal funds to expand Medicaid?
56% Support
33% Oppose

Braves fan?
60% Yes
30% No

Georgia or Georgia Tech?
48% UGA
20% GT

[Adam Griffin]

Update on this: Muscogee County has ruled out Sunday early voting. All of the major satellite counties have weighed in, so I don't expect there to be any other huge chunks of Georgia approving Sunday voting for the election at this point.

Updates on Sunday early voting (and other similar modifications) in Georgia!

.......

Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
40.2%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
15.0%

Floyd County (!!!) added Sunday early voting for Sunday, 10/26 from 11a-4p.

AND Athens-Clarke County is voting on Sunday early voting as we speak. We should know whether they'll have it within a couple of hours.



Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
40.7%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
16.1%

[Lief 🗽]

Will these counties have Sunday voting again for the run-off(s)?

[Adam Griffin]

New PPP poll for Georgia featuring downballot races and juicy crosstabs.

This doesn't look good.

Will these counties have Sunday voting again for the run-off(s)?

To my knowledge, no: I believe in every instance, they've only approved early Sunday voting for one (or two, in Fulton's case) specific days.

[Bacon King]

Crosstab fun:

1. The runoff screens don't show much of the expected enthusiasm gap; it may not be as bad as we are fearing

2. Holy Christ the gender gaps are insane in this state, like literally a twenty point difference seems to be the norm, with an almost forty point difference on some of the Hilldawg matchups

3. Apparently 10% of GA African-Americans do not have a favorable opinion of MLK

[Bacon King]

Also Adam for you here is the racial crosstabs, can your electoral demographics wizardry deduct anything from this

Why is Nathan Deal so popular among the minorities, it frightens me

	Whites	Blacks	Others
Nathan Deal	61%	15%	38%
Jason Carter	27%	76%	34%
Libertarian	4%	1%	11%
Undecided	8%	8%	17%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
Nathan Deal	66%	16%	45%
Jason Carter	30%	78%	52%
Undecided	4%	6%	3%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
David Perdue	61%	10%	36%
Michelle Nunn	27%	79%	40%
Libertarian	4%	2%	13%
Undecided	8%	9%	10%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
David Perdue	65%	11%	49%
Michelle Nunn	29%	82%	45%
Undecided	7%	6%	6%

[Adam Griffin]

Also Adam for you here is the racial crosstabs, can your electoral demographics wizardry deduct anything from this

Why is Nathan Deal so popular among the minorities, it frightens me

	Whites	Blacks	Others
Nathan Deal	61%	15%	38%
Jason Carter	27%	76%	34%
Libertarian	4%	1%	11%
Undecided	8%	8%	17%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
Nathan Deal	66%	16%	45%
Jason Carter	30%	78%	52%
Undecided	4%	6%	3%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
David Perdue	61%	10%	36%
Michelle Nunn	27%	79%	40%
Libertarian	4%	2%	13%
Undecided	8%	9%	10%

	Whites	Blacks	Others
David Perdue	65%	11%	49%
Michelle Nunn	29%	82%	45%
Undecided	7%	6%	6%

The racial breakdown of the poll looks sound: 64/28/8. Carter's numbers among blacks I believe will solidify in the high-80s; they've been consistently moving in that direction since the beginning of the year (when he was in the low-60s).

"Other" polling proves to be very complicated here, and there are several factors probably at play. The first is that the discrepancy between Latinos who vote in presidential versus mid-term cycles is probably more skewed than in any other racial group; mid-term Latinos are going to be much more Republican as a whole than their presidential-year counterparts. Polling consistently shows Latinos being either a tied or Republican-leaning group in GA polling, but usually they are such a small percentage of the poll (1-3%) that the sample size is screwy. Wealthier Latinos are going to be much more stable and unlikely to move about - doing robo-calls and live calls in Dalton has shown me that a sizable majority of Latinos' phone numbers in the voter file are disconnected or have changed hands since. We were discussing a bit more of this dynamic a few days ago here.

So yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if a) wealthier, Republican-leaning Latinos being a disproportionately larger share of the electorate and/or b) Democratic Latinos being very hard to contact in polling, that we could be seeing either the actual result or we're completely unable to track the electorate due to the phone issues. If you look at the link above, you can see that Latinos in North Georgia (in the 9th and 11th) are quite a bit more Republican than the national average, so it's not unprecedented even in high-turnout situations for them to be at least 40% R.   

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/watch-live-georgia-senate-debate/

Senatorial debate has wrapped up; Gubernatorial is about half-way through