Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread!  (Read 310071 times)
Flake
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #700 on: October 07, 2014, 07:56:47 PM »


Carter's doing great! I only wish more people would see this!
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #701 on: October 07, 2014, 07:58:57 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2014, 08:14:50 PM by MormDem »

I was gonna say that.

Is it me,or does Jason sound uncannily close to Christopher Walken though Tongue

Oh good heavens Deal's going batsh**t crazy about this whole "people with jobs = better than those without"

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Barnes
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« Reply #702 on: October 07, 2014, 10:20:14 PM »

From what I've seen, it appears that both Nunn and Carter were the clear winners of their respective debates.  Not that that will have an impact in any appreciable way, but it's good to see.
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Miles
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« Reply #703 on: October 07, 2014, 11:54:31 PM »

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #704 on: October 08, 2014, 05:20:54 AM »

Deal raised quite a bit more than Carter, but Carter enters October with more cash-on-hand than Deal. Carter still holds the title of being the only challenger ever to outraise an incumbent in a prior quarter; return to the mean.

That's a heavy burn rate to still be neck-in-neck in the polls, Nathan - you aren't scared, are you?

Q3 Results:

Deal: $5,025,342.32
Carter: $3,051,178.55

Cash-on-hand:

Carter: $2,810,355.27
Deal: $2,633,398.69
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #705 on: October 08, 2014, 08:16:33 AM »

Athens-Clarke approves Sunday early voting!

The map now looks like this:



Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
42.3%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
16.8%
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windjammer
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« Reply #706 on: October 08, 2014, 08:35:57 AM »

BLUE GEORGIA IS EVOLVING INTO RED GEORGIA
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Barnes
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« Reply #707 on: October 08, 2014, 03:13:26 PM »

BLUE GEORGIA IS EVOLVING INTO RED GEORGIA

Indeed, my friend, indeed.

The AJC is reporting a "surge" in the voter rolls with a large number of registrations still waiting to be approved.

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/ajc-analysis-georgia-sees-surge-in-voter-rolls/nhdgL/?icmp=ajc_internallink_invitationbox_apr2013_ajcstub1
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #708 on: October 12, 2014, 03:28:42 AM »

Gallup did some polling in Georgia, but sadly no election contests. Sad









http://www.gallup.com/poll/178211/independents-even-party-split-mean-runoffs-georgia.aspx
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Bacon King
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« Reply #709 on: October 12, 2014, 03:08:45 PM »

Hey, y'all in 2016 will our state primaries and local elections still be in may, or is it tied to when we have our presidential primary (in which case I suppose it will move earlier)? I feel like this should be easy info to find, but I haven't been looking in the right places.

Need it for scheming happening in Athens. Wink

I support all scheming happenings!

Georgia's Presidential Primary is not tied to the state-level primaries. The law right now says the Secretary of State gets to declare whenever GA's presidential primary will be, so that we can remain an early primary state even if other states keep moving their primary dates around
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Bacon King
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« Reply #710 on: October 13, 2014, 02:51:57 AM »

Hey, y'all in 2016 will our state primaries and local elections still be in may, or is it tied to when we have our presidential primary (in which case I suppose it will move earlier)? I feel like this should be easy info to find, but I haven't been looking in the right places.

Need it for scheming happening in Athens. Wink

I support all scheming happenings!

Georgia's Presidential Primary is not tied to the state-level primaries. The law right now says the Secretary of State gets to declare whenever GA's presidential primary will be, so that we can remain an early primary state even if other states keep moving their primary dates around

The gist of it is I work with a socialist (in all but name) organization called Athens for Everyone which almost got a socialist elected mayor last may and will be running a full slate of candidates for county commission in 2016. We also want to actively campaign for Bernie Sanders, in the event that he runs in the Democratic primaries (which is almost certain to happen according to my comrades in the DSA) and are perfectly positioned to bus activists into South Carolina for weekend canvassing and the like. However, if local elections are happening at the same time (or very close to) the presidential primaries then our capacity to be involved there will be severely limited.

Are local elections always in May, or is there a possibility they might be later in 2016?

It's up in the air; the Georgia election calendar this year was a temporary schedule made by a judge, because the state failed to comply with a federal court order to provide a 45+ day gap before a runoff for primary and general elections to Federal offices (this is also why the Senate and Governor runoffs are on different dates this year). Athens local elections are AFAIK tied to the state primary date so wherever they put that in 2016 will be the date of your nonpartisan locals as well
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #711 on: October 13, 2014, 03:11:25 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2014, 03:23:04 AM by Lowly Griff »

CAMPAIGN FINANCE NUMBERS!

So because Georgia has a full slate of Republican incumbents running for re-election, I didn't think it would be fair to assess how much each candidate raised for the cycle (let alone their entire campaign finance histories), so what I did here was pick the first quarter in which both candidates for said office filed with the state:



We also don't know Nunn or Perdue's Q3 numbers yet (ditto for State School Superintendent). Nunn's making up a lot of the discrepancy. Without her and Perdue's numbers counted, Republicans are winning 2-to-1 in just what has been raised since late 2013/early 2014 - the total comparison across all races I'm sure would be more like 3-to-1.

Those two races are two of the three on here where the Democrat had outraised the Republican as of the last quarter; Democratic candidate for Labor Commissioner Robbin Shipp has also outraised the incumbent. All of this seems like a no-brainer, though: private and public sector unions contributing heavily to the Labor and State School Superintendent races is a given.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #712 on: October 13, 2014, 06:26:41 AM »

Disappointing.

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #713 on: October 14, 2014, 11:37:40 AM »

DSCC putting an additional $1 million into Georgia, with Democratic internals supposedly showing Nunn leading Perdue and close to 50%
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #714 on: October 14, 2014, 11:44:36 AM »


Maybe I've been too negative on Nunn. But I still find this difficult to believe. Can we really turn out enough people to make that happen?
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #715 on: October 14, 2014, 01:40:22 PM »


I find it hard to believe too, but I'll take whatever good news I can get these days.  I wouldn't be surprised if she's leading Perdue though.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #716 on: October 14, 2014, 04:17:36 PM »

I'm guessing y'all know about this already, but I'll post it anyway.

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oter-suppression efforts have been a scourge in recent years for much of the country, but it’s proving to be especially problematic in Georgia. Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), Georgia’s top elections official, was recorded over the summer expressing concern, for example, about Democrats “registering all these minority voters that are out there.” Kemp also subpoenaed the New Georgia Project, which happens to be the driving force behind the state’s largest voter-registration campaign, for reasons that appear quite dubious.
 
But it’s the voter-registration materials that may ultimately matter most. According to the New Georgia Project, the group has submitted “more than 80,000 new voter applications to county election boards.” But as Election Day nears, the New Georgia Project says roughly half of these new voters, some of whom registered months ago, are not yet on the voter rolls.
 
And if these Georgians aren’t on the voter rolls, they may not be able to cast a ballot that counts. With early voting beginning statewide today, it’s a problem in need of an immediate resolution.
 
In a statement, state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D), founder of the New Georgia Project’s parent group, said, “We hoped litigation would not be necessary, but with early voting beginning next week, eligible Georgians are dangerously close to not being allowed to vote in this election. All eligible registrants should be processed immediately; provisional voting is not an acceptable option.”
[/quote]

Conveniently, Kemp lives in Athens. We're planning a candlelight vigil (a vigil for the suppressed voters) outside Brian Kemp's house for one of the next few days. If any of our Georgians are interested, I can get you more details.
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KCDem
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« Reply #717 on: October 14, 2014, 05:31:01 PM »

RIP Perdue.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #718 on: October 14, 2014, 07:55:19 PM »


It's Politico. Take everything from them with a grain of salt. Wonderful news if true though.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #719 on: October 15, 2014, 09:24:18 AM »


Apparently it's not just the DSCC that's seeing this.



SPEAKING OF WHICH, I'm posting all the results from the SUSA poll here, since we have some down-ballot results, too:

Governor: Carter 46%, Deal 46%
Senate: Nunn 48%, Perdue 45%
School Superintendent: Wilson 46%, Woods 46%
Attorney General: Olens 46%, Hecht 43%
Lieutenant Governor: Cagle 49%, Stokes 42%
Secretary of State: Kemp 48%, Carter 42%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #720 on: October 15, 2014, 03:27:09 PM »

Here are the three regions of Georgia according to SurveyUSA:



Red: "Northwest Georgia"

2010 Census population: 3,471,185

RaceTotalVAP
White: 67.4% 70.6%
Black: 19.9% 18.8%
Hispanic:   8.9%   7.3%
Asian:   2.0%   2.0%

VotePrez 2008Average
Democrat      36.3%    38.8%
Republican      62.8%    61.2%
Other        0.9%   



Blue: Atlanta Metro

2010 Census population: 3,105,873

RaceTotalVAP
White: 42.5% 45.7%
Black: 36.2% 35.0%
Hispanic: 12.5% 10.9%
Asian:   6.5%   6.6%

VotePrez 2008Average
Democrat      59.8%    56.6%
Republican      39.4%    43.4%
Other        0.7%   



Green: South and East

2010 Census population: 3,110,595

RaceTotalVAP
White: 56.4% 59.3%
Black: 35.3% 33.6%
Hispanic:   5.1%   4.4%
Asian:   1.4%   1.5%

VotePrez 2008Average
Democrat      45.2%    47.8%
Republican      54.2%    52.2%
Other        0.6%   
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #721 on: October 16, 2014, 04:44:57 AM »

Fantastic stuff!

Like I said on FB, BK, I'm quite skeptical about the poll's potential accuracy now that we see what the districts are and have the 2008 results in-hand. Nunn and Carter being down by 6 to 8 in the red area when Obama lost it by over 20 in 2008? I don't think skin color and/or frustration with Republicans buys them that much; it's still a mid-term after all, and the electorate is almost destined to look just like 2008's. The poll on balance may be right, but I'm taking it with a few more grains of salt. On the other hand, I hope actual Northwest Georgia is swinging as much as suggested, because I'll feel a bit better about what I've been doing the past few months. Tongue
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user12345
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« Reply #722 on: October 16, 2014, 05:49:07 PM »

NY Times Upshot now gives Democrats a better chance of winning Geogria than holding Colorado.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #723 on: October 16, 2014, 06:14:18 PM »

Perdue just can't pull away.   The Sam Nunn effect seems to be helping...people here have fond memories of him. 

The northwest Georgia results could be real.  The economy was really hit hard here (with many counties having unemployment rates well into the teens and beyond).  The story (real or not) of the Pillowtex collapse looks to be resonating against Perdue.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #724 on: October 16, 2014, 11:15:31 PM »

Perdue just can't pull away.   The Sam Nunn effect seems to be helping...people here have fond memories of him. 

The northwest Georgia results could be real.  The economy was really hit hard here (with many counties having unemployment rates well into the teens and beyond).  The story (real or not) of the Pillowtex collapse looks to be resonating against Perdue.

I've been wanting to see the Kannapolis ad on the airwaves in the North, but haven't seen it yet. Where are you in NW GA?
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