Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

[Bacon King]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

Do you still think Carter will get more votes than Nunn because at this point I'm willing to make a good bet against it

[Adam Griffin]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

Do you still think Carter will get more votes than Nunn because at this point I'm willing to make a good bet against it

Maybe? I mean, I thought Nunn would be ahead of Carter by 1-3 going into this, but then changed my mind...maybe I'll be flopping back to my original position soon.


ALSO I COMPLETELY FORGOT but I have a little family update tracker of my own. I talked to my mom yesterday and she was all like "alright shh don't tell your stepdad but I've made up my mind and I'm voting for Carter and Nunn". She said that "Deal is just too corrupt to vote for" and "I just really don't like Perdue". She's a Dole/Bush/Kerry/McCain/Romney voter who also voted for Barnes & Porter in 2010 (but Perdue in 2002/2006), and hasn't voted for Senate Dem since Zell. Looking at her track record of almost always voting for the PV loser, it may be more of a bad omen than anything.

[Adam Griffin]

Dougherty County reverses course and approves early voting!

The map now looks like this:



Percentage of 2008 Democratic statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
43.7%

Percentage of 2008 Republican statewide vote with 2014 early Sunday voting locations:
17.4%

[Podgy the Bear]

Posted by: Lowly Griff
I've been wanting to see the Kannapolis ad on the airwaves in the North, but haven't seen it yet. Where are you in NW GA?

Live in the north Atlanta suburbs but have regular work projects in Cartersville and Calhoun.  Things have been tough.  Unemployment rate in Bartow County (Cartersville) topped around 15-16% at the height of the recession, and it's still around 11% in Whitfield County (Dalton).

[Adam Griffin]

Posted by: Lowly Griff
I've been wanting to see the Kannapolis ad on the airwaves in the North, but haven't seen it yet. Where are you in NW GA?

Live in the north Atlanta suburbs but have regular work projects in Cartersville and Calhoun.  Things have been tough.  Unemployment rate in Bartow County (Cartersville) topped around 15-16% at the height of the recession, and it's still around 11% in Whitfield County (Dalton).

Ah, OK! I actually live in the epicenter of the manufacturing depression (Dalton), so yeah, it's pretty bad even today. I didn't know the unemployment rate got that bad in Cartersville; that's about where it topped out at here.

[Badger]

On Sunday I'll be down in south GA helping my dad to settle some stuff with my grandparents' estate. I will have a lot of conversation time with several of my aunts and uncles who are very politically-minded. So please post any questions or topics you would like discussed in next edition of BK's Family PoliticsWatch: ElectionTracker 2014

This never happened, and the Forum mourns.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rothenberg, who has been the most confident of anyone on republicans holding onto this seat, has finally moved the senate race from Likely R to Leans R.

[Barnes]

Did anyone catch the Deal/Carter debate tonight? I've come to the point where I don't watch TV "debates" in principle unless there's a driving factor to do so.

[Adam Griffin]

Did anyone catch the Deal/Carter debate tonight? I've come to the point where I don't watch TV "debates" in principle unless there's a driving factor to do so.

I watched the last half. Here it is, FYI:

http://www.gpb.org/election-2014/governor

[Adam Griffin]

Some updated Georgia numbers. I've downloaded the huge absentee list to assess the count of all ballots cast and requested up through Monday (10/20), and also sorted it to show how many of those ballots have been cast and returned. In addition to this, I'm using the public voter file I have access to in order to break down early voters (through Sunday; doesn't include today's voters) by "party" (which is assessed from party primary voting records).

As of 10/20:

Ballot Status
All Ballots Cast/Requested: 241,920
Ballots Cast/Returned: 185,387

As of 10/19 (First Week + Sunday)

Historic Public Voter File Data (Based on Primary Voting History)
All Ballots Cast/Returned: 156,106

Republican 43.1%
Democrat 39.5%
Independent 6.1%
No Data 12.3%

(It should be noted that public voter file data/primary voting history skews Republican these days, due to a near-supermajority of Georgians living in Republican-dominant counties, so the numbers are quite possibly even better than they'd appear.

Are those numbers good or bad for Nunn?

Hard to say considering that I've never done this sort of comparison before. I did just do some sketchy math that attempts to take into account what I know about Georgia's primary dynamics (which is practically everywhere, although to a greater degree of skewing in some areas).

I started out by assessing areas where one party is the dominant force/primary is equivalent to election, which gives you 63% R / 37% D in terms of percentage of population that lives in an area where that party's primary is more influential. I then took what I know about the open primary voting habits of people from the opposite party in such circumstances and tried to reverse engineer numbers to put people where they actually belong. After all of that, I got this:

Democratic: 41.1%
Republican: 37.5%
Independent: 9.1%
No Data: 12.3%

[Miles]

I would have never guessed:

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[nolesfan2011]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

Well only a foolish UGA graduate would "trust" that corrupt clown Nathan Deal.. is all I garner from that, her education didn't teach her much

[Adam Griffin]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

Well only a foolish UGA graduate would "trust" that corrupt clown Nathan Deal.. is all I garner from that, her education didn't teach her much

What really pissed me off was that they used someone from the Class of 1999. What, they couldn't find a recent graduate to praise these changes, and instead they had to go back to the time when Democrats still ruled? "Of course HOPE got you through college in the late 1990s, you dum-dum".


Also:

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/10/21/only-one-third-of-183416-new-voters-describe-themselves-as-white/

[Bacon King]

Dem unknowns

Not to rekindle that discussion we had about the unknowns from a while back but do you think a lot of the unknowns might be Hispanics?

I imagine a lot would decline to state their race because of paranoia over profiling, plus checking multiple boxes (e.g. both "Hispanic" and "white" for example) might be processed as unknown?

[Adam Griffin]

Dem unknowns

Not to rekindle that discussion we had about the unknowns from a while back but do you think a lot of the unknowns might be Hispanics?

I imagine a lot would decline to state their race because of paranoia over profiling, plus checking multiple boxes (e.g. both "Hispanic" and "white" for example) might be processed as unknown?

BK that was what I said when we discussed it; are you now saying the opposite of what you were way back then

I personally think that around 50% of those unknowns are Latinos; maybe more. Not a complete correlation, but the more Latino-populated counties usually have much higher rates of unknown RVs.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

And the flip-side to bringing ol' Zig-Zag back into the mix...

Could they have found a woman to put in the commercial with more of a Southron accent?

Well only a foolish UGA graduate would "trust" that corrupt clown Nathan Deal.. is all I garner from that, her education didn't teach her much

"Dawn Pugh Justus"

lol

[Bacon King]

Dem unknowns

Not to rekindle that discussion we had about the unknowns from a while back but do you think a lot of the unknowns might be Hispanics?

I imagine a lot would decline to state their race because of paranoia over profiling, plus checking multiple boxes (e.g. both "Hispanic" and "white" for example) might be processed as unknown?

BK that was what I said when we discussed it; are you now saying the opposite of what you were way back then

I personally think that around 50% of those unknowns are Latinos; maybe more. Not a complete correlation, but the more Latino-populated counties usually have much higher rates of unknown RVs.

I guess let's say you won that argument then

[Adam Griffin]

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[Adam Griffin]

THE GUN IS BACK

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And to top it all off, he's going after Allen from the right on immigration (in part by associating a $15,000 contribution from Associated General Contractors of America PAC as taking money from a group that "supports legalized undocumented workers"):

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[Bacon King]

Jahn Barrah is absolutely the best and I really hope he runs for the Senate against Isakson

[Adam Griffin]

Jahn Barrah is absolutely the best and I really hope he runs for the Senate against Isakson

This was the cycle where he should've ran; Hillary's coattails should be strong enough that we can elect someone a bit more liberal than him in 2016. I like him, but I think his political relevance on a statewide level is quickly fading. Maybe he could run as a safe bet in 2018 if Carter loses, if just to ensure we don't get another round of terrible maps (I'd certainly support him over that turncoat Reed).

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, Barrow should run for governor. He's way too conservative to be a Democratic senator.

[IceSpear]

Did Barrow not run this year because Nunn and Carter already made their interest known? It seems like it would've been a decent proposition since Georgia as a whole is more Democratic than his solid R district.

[Adam Griffin]

Did Barrow not run this year because Nunn and Carter already made their interest known? It seems like it would've been a decent proposition since Georgia as a whole is more Democratic than his solid R district.

The DSCC were in talks with both Barrow and Nunn in 2013, and the story goes that Barrow wasn't interested in running for Senate all that much and ultimately declined. It wouldn't surprise me if Barrow just didn't want to deal with (what would have been) a very competitive primary with no guarantee of winning it. Also, Barrow loves a competitive general election and so maybe Georgia wasn't enough of an uphill battle for his tastes.