Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Quick question guys. I turn 18 on the 15th of November, which is about a week after the General Election. If I register to vote, am I allowed to vote in the run-offs?

[Adam Griffin]

Quick question guys. I turn 18 on the 15th of November, which is about a week after the General Election. If I register to vote, am I allowed to vote in the run-offs?

Nearly 100% sure, and you can already register to vote (you just have to be 17 1/2 to register). If you got a D/L, you can do it right now online using your D/L number here:

https://registertovote.sos.ga.gov/GAOLVR/#no-back-button

[Barnes]

Quick question guys. I turn 18 on the 15th of November, which is about a week after the General Election. If I register to vote, am I allowed to vote in the run-offs?

No, the registration date for the general election is the same for the run-offs - October 6, 2014.

If you're already registered, and you turn 18 between the elections then I don't know...

[Barnes]

Getting closer to election night has me looking through classic local news coverage from the past.  Here are two goldies:

WBS-TV's coverage of the 1992 vote - including an extremely early call for Clinton, prolific discussion on the lottery referendum, and the heated Fowler/Coverdale senate result which was initially projected to be won by Fowler outright.

Also, there's WSB's coverage from the 1980 election - which includes Carter's concession speech, and the erroneous projection that Herman Talmadge had been convincingly reelected over Mack Mattingly, only to loose by a small margin later on in the night.

I hope you guys enjoy!

Best part ever

We need a Peanut Brigade for 2014! Those ladies make be proud to be a Georgia Democrat.

[Adam Griffin]

Quick question guys. I turn 18 on the 15th of November, which is about a week after the General Election. If I register to vote, am I allowed to vote in the run-offs?

No, the registration date for the general election is the same for the run-offs - October 6, 2014.

If you're already registered, and you turn 18 between the elections then I don't know...

Well crap, then I guess you can't, Clinton. It sucks because had you registered before October 6 (you could have), then you'd be able to vote in the run-offs (since you can register 6 months before your 18th birthday).

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

[Barnes]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

After 9PM I think the cost for ad space drops a lot because that's when I've been seeing the downballot candidates' stuff. Yesterday I even saw a Gary Black ad!

[Adam Griffin]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

After 9PM I think the cost for ad space drops a lot because that's when I've been seeing the downballot candidates' stuff. Yesterday I even saw a Gary Black ad!

Fun fact: excluding Deal/Perdue propaganda (which I've seen very little of), Gary Black is the only Republican candidate whose signs I've seen in NW GA. Also, I've yet to see a Perdue or Deal commercial in the general election; Nunn's team started hitting our media market about 10 days ago (was coordinated to begin the same day Sam came to Dalton) and they're running all the time. Unusual, as we never get GA Dem TV ads up here.

[Bacon King]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

After 9PM I think the cost for ad space drops a lot because that's when I've been seeing the downballot candidates' stuff. Yesterday I even saw a Gary Black ad!

Fun fact: excluding Deal/Perdue propaganda (which I've seen very little of), Gary Black is the only Republican candidate whose signs I've seen in NW GA. Also, I've yet to see a Perdue or Deal commercial in the general election; Nunn's team started hitting our media market about 10 days ago (was coordinated to begin the same day Sam came to Dalton) and they're running all the time. Unusual, as we never get GA Dem TV ads up here.

Here in Gwinnett it's just Perdue and Deal except for one stretch of road near Buford where there's randomly four of those big poster-sized yard signs for Casey Cagle all within two miles from each other

I do love that Nunn's uncontested in your airwaves up there, it'll surely sway at least a few votes

[Adam Griffin]

Here's the margin shifts between last week's SUSA poll and the new one. One of these things is not like the others...

Governor: no change
Senate: Perdue + 5
Lt. Governor: Cagle + 3
Sec. of State: Kemp + 2
Attorney General: Hecht + 2
Superintendent: Woods + 3

Update: I saw a Greg Hecht ad on FOX 5 during the evening news tonight, talking about how he prosecuted child rapists. Apparently he has money for ad buys now so that's prob why he's surging

Really? I've only seen the deluge of governor and Senate ads.  My aunt claims to have seen a Casey Cagle ad but I'm not convinced.

After 9PM I think the cost for ad space drops a lot because that's when I've been seeing the downballot candidates' stuff. Yesterday I even saw a Gary Black ad!

Fun fact: excluding Deal/Perdue propaganda (which I've seen very little of), Gary Black is the only Republican candidate whose signs I've seen in NW GA. Also, I've yet to see a Perdue or Deal commercial in the general election; Nunn's team started hitting our media market about 10 days ago (was coordinated to begin the same day Sam came to Dalton) and they're running all the time. Unusual, as we never get GA Dem TV ads up here.

Here in Gwinnett it's just Perdue and Deal except for one stretch of road near Buford where there's randomly four of those big poster-sized yard signs for Casey Cagle all within two miles from each other

I do love that Nunn's uncontested in your airwaves up there, it'll surely sway at least a few votes

It's really weird: both Deal and Perdue seem to be taking for granted this part of the state in both trivial and meaningful ways (and if there was ever a time not to do that, you'd think it would be now). Obviously they'll win up here, but I'd say if Republicans fall below 65% in Floyd, Whitfield, Paulding, etc, then it doesn't bode well for them at well given the increased Dem support in the rest of the state, too.

It's not just the TV ads, which matter, but even in the meaningless stuff like signs...this is the first time I can remember where Democrats are beating Republicans in the sign game in my county.

[Adam Griffin]

Carter's final commercial

[politicus]

Carter's final commercial

Seems a bit bland.

[Barnes]

Important announcement!
Us Red Georgias will be hosting a Peach State election night IRC extravaganza! All are welcome to attend, of course.  I'll post the link on election day.

[Flake]

Important announcement!
Us Red Georgias will be hosting a Peach State election night IRC extravaganza! All are welcome to attend, of course.  I'll post the link on election day.

Can the Sunshine State join in?

[Barnes]

All are welcome to bask in the glory of the Empire State of the South.

[Bacon King]

"And if Michelle Nunn wins, Democrats keep control of the Senate..." -Barack Obama

I have heard this line at least twenty times today in radio ads, usually coupled with Nunn's "I defer to the President's judgement". It's brutally effective

Why in the world would Barry-O say something like that anywhere near a microphone?

[Adam Griffin]

"And if Michelle Nunn wins, Democrats keep control of the Senate..." -Barack Obama

I have heard this line at least twenty times today in radio ads, usually coupled with Nunn's "I defer to the President's judgement". It's brutally effective

Why in the world would Barry-O say something like that anywhere near a microphone?

Oh and now we're seeing Perdue and Perdue-affiliated PAC ads in the Great White North.

[Barnes]

With the final day of early voting counted, turnout among blacks is up 13% compared to 2010, and down 7% among whites.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/11/01/african-american-share-of-early-ballots-up-10-percent-over-2010/

[Adam Griffin]

With the final day of early voting counted, turnout among blacks is up 13% compared to 2010, and down 7% among whites.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/11/01/african-american-share-of-early-ballots-up-10-percent-over-2010/

Hmm, their figures are off a bit compared to mine, but still holding strong. I'm not sure what they mean here, though:

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Do they mean blacks have almost matched the actual 2012 figure (nominal)? At any rate, we need to compare it to 2010 first, and not 2012. Between early voting in 2010 and total votes cast in 2010, black share of electorate only dropped by one point (from 29% in early voting to 28% in total votes). If this election mimics that, then this would indicate an electorate that is even blacker than 2012 or 2008. Of course, more black people could simply be voting early and there may be far fewer voting on Election Day.

Georgia, Final Early Vote Totals and Analysis:

Wow. I'm not sure what it looks like in every other state (I'll compare later), but the total share of early voters in Georgia jumped from 678,000 in 2010 to 930,000 in 2014.

The black share of the electorate jumped by close to four percentage points (from 29.0% in 2010 to 32.7% in 2014). The white share of the electorate shrank by more than five percentage points (from 66.5% in 2010 to 61.1% in 2014).

When we go by party affiliation based on primary voting record (on a statewide level, this is more accurate than it'd appear and I've explained in detail before why this is), the early vote electorate in Georgia effectively swung from R+6 in 2010 to D+1 in 2014.

By age and by gender, we saw a fairly steady hold between 2010 and 2014. Females were 55% in 2010; closer to 56% in 2014. The youngest and oldest brackets grew and shrank very modestly, respectively, while the 51-64 age group saw the largest growth between 2010 and 2014.

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Here are two maps that show 2014 early vote turnout compared to 2010 early turnout. The first one shows it in sheer numbers; the second one shows it in a "trend-like" format (counties that saw EV percentage growth greater than the state as a whole are green; those that saw less or shrank are in red).

2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout



TREND - 2014 Early Vote Turnout as a Percentage of 2010 Early Vote Turnout

[Bacon King]

Does anyone else think the risk of a turnout drop in the runoff has been overstated?

1. We're already dealing with the reduced electorate of a midterm
2. The meme is mostly based on Chambliss's reelection in 2008 where he got like 49% in spite of record turnou
3. It will get the full attention from donors as the last race
4 The Nunn campaign has proven to be professional and will doubtlessly run a first-class GOTV operation

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone else think the risk of a turnout drop in the runoff has been overstated?

1. We're already dealing with the reduced electorate of a midterm
2. The meme is mostly based on Chambliss's reelection in 2008 where he got like 49% in spite of record turnou
3. It will get the full attention from donors as the last race
4 The Nunn campaign has proven to be professional and will doubtlessly run a first-class GOTV operation

Wish I could find my multiple posts on the matter scattered about, but this is exactly what I've been thinking. I think if anything, it'll look more than 1992 than 2008 in terms of the drop-off.

[Barnes]

Well, we're entering the final stretch! Whatever the outcome of tomorrow's election, I'm just glad that so much attention has been payed on Georgia this year! It's good to live in a state with competitive elections.

[Bacon King]

BK FAMILY TRACKER ELECTIONWATCH

Dad voted for the libertarian in the gov race but voted Nunn, saying "I really don't like Perdue and voting Libertarian is a vote for Perdue since he'll win the runoff"

Mom voted Carter/Nunn

Grandmother voted Deal/Nunn

Aunt and uncle in south GA voted Deal/Perdue/Barrow

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

BK FAMILY TRACKER ELECTIONWATCH

Dad voted for the libertarian in the gov race but voted Nunn, saying "I really don't like Perdue and voting Libertarian is a vote for Perdue since he'll win the runoff"

Mom voted Carter/Nunn

Grandmother voted Deal/Nunn

Aunt and uncle in south GA voted Deal/Perdue/Barrow

What a thoughtful family. My family only votes straight ticket one way or another.