Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread!  (Read 310026 times)
somewashingtondude
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« Reply #975 on: February 06, 2017, 01:57:01 AM »

I like all of the optimism Democrats are having thinking they will somehow capture the Governor's seat, but if Roy Barnes didn't win back the mansion in 2010, then I doubt that Jason Carter is going to win in two years either.

Also, Sonny Perdue won re-election in 2006, which was a blue wave election, so even in the oft-chance that Trump is unpopular in 2018, then Georgians will still elect another Republican as governor.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #976 on: February 06, 2017, 02:02:27 AM »

I like all of the optimism Democrats are having thinking they will somehow capture the Governor's seat, but if Roy Barnes didn't win back the mansion in 2010, then I doubt that Jason Carter is going to win in two years either.

Also, Sonny Perdue won re-election in 2006, which was a blue wave election, so even in the oft-chance that Trump is unpopular in 2018, then Georgians will still elect another Republican as governor.

-Sonny Perdue was massively popular, and Georgia was more Republican, in 2006. Nathan Deal has middling-to-bad approvals last time I checked.

-"Democrats didn't win in Obama's worst midterm, so how could they possibly win in a Trump midterm"

I certainly don't think it's a lock, I have it as Lean R, but it's within reach. Get Hillary Clinton's numbers in Atlanta + suburbs, and Obama's numbers downstate, and you win. The path is there now.

Also, how are you "somewashingtondude" if you're from California. Explain yourself.
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somewashingtondude
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« Reply #977 on: February 06, 2017, 02:06:18 AM »

I like all of the optimism Democrats are having thinking they will somehow capture the Governor's seat, but if Roy Barnes didn't win back the mansion in 2010, then I doubt that Jason Carter is going to win in two years either.

Also, Sonny Perdue won re-election in 2006, which was a blue wave election, so even in the oft-chance that Trump is unpopular in 2018, then Georgians will still elect another Republican as governor.

-Sonny Perdue was massively popular, and Georgia was more Republican, in 2006. Nathan Deal has middling-to-bad approvals last time I checked.

-"Democrats didn't win in Obama's worst midterm, so how could they possibly win in a Trump midterm"

I certainly don't think it's a lock, I have it as Lean R, but it's within reach. Get Hillary Clinton's numbers in Atlanta + suburbs, and Obama's numbers downstate, and you win. The path is there now.

Also, how are you "somewashingtondude" if you're from California. Explain yourself.

Those are some good points. Then again, it depends on which nominees the two parties choose.

Oh, and as for the last one. I'm a military brat, so I pretty much move around the country a lot. I currently live in California, but I was born in Washington state, hence the name.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #978 on: February 08, 2017, 11:54:35 PM »

Must be preparing for another run - very high-energy!



What a very Trumpish thing to say. Are all populists this direct, thus naturally less influential?
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windjammer
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« Reply #979 on: February 09, 2017, 08:34:49 PM »

Must be preparing for another run - very high-energy!


He will get destroyed by StaceyHolcomb, he should run for an another office.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #980 on: February 10, 2017, 03:10:55 AM »

My presidential county-by-county GIF has been updated with 2016 (one slow and one fast)!

 
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #981 on: February 10, 2017, 03:34:36 AM »

So, Democrats win Atlanta area (more and more) and sort of Black Belt going from south-west part of the state to central-east. Plus Savannah. And almost nothing more?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #982 on: February 10, 2017, 03:40:24 AM »

So, Democrats win Atlanta area (more and more) and sort of Black Belt going from south-west part of the state to central-east. Plus Savannah. And almost nothing more?

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

See my animated mega-GIF for 2002-2016 presidential/gubernatorial results by precinct.

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #983 on: February 10, 2017, 03:48:09 AM »

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

BTW - why? Bigger Republicanization among Black Belt whites (like those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana) or demographic changes?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #984 on: February 10, 2017, 04:01:42 AM »

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

BTW - why? Bigger Republicanization among Black Belt whites (like those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana) or demographic changes?

One big reason could be people moving to Atlanta metro. I imagine the job prospects are better.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #985 on: February 10, 2017, 04:20:50 AM »

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

BTW - why? Bigger Republicanization among Black Belt whites (like those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana) or demographic changes?

One big reason could be people moving to Atlanta metro. I imagine the job prospects are better.

May be. Plausible hypothesis
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OneJ
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« Reply #986 on: February 10, 2017, 05:27:35 AM »

My presidential county-by-county GIF has been updated with 2016 (one slow and one fast)!

 

The increasing polarization is scary, tbh. Sad
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Barnes
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« Reply #987 on: April 03, 2017, 11:11:10 PM »

Hey guys, it's been a while since I was last here. Anything bigly happen? Grin

Glad to find interest in our glorious Peach State staying strong! Grin
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #988 on: April 04, 2017, 06:50:31 PM »

My presidential county-by-county GIF has been updated with 2016 (one slow and one fast)!

 

The increasing polarization is scary, tbh. Sad

No Obama on the ballot=lower black turnout in rural areas? It's not like Trump gained a lot of votes on Romney in these areas or even in most of the rural areas in general. More just Clinton's numbers falling off. Forming a combo of Obama numbers in rural GA and Clinton numbers in metro Atlanta is probably how Dems get to 50%+1 in 2018.
My presidential county-by-county GIF has been updated with 2016 (one slow and one fast)!

 

The increasing polarization is scary, tbh. Sad

No Obama on the ballot=lower black turnout in rural areas? It's not like Trump gained a lot of votes on Romney in these areas or even in most of the rural areas in general. More just Clinton's numbers falling off. Forming a combo of Obama numbers in rural GA and Clinton numbers in metro Atlanta is probably how Dems get to 50%+1 in 2018.

Another factor is rural blacks increasingly moving to the Atlanta metro.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #989 on: April 05, 2017, 03:52:00 PM »

Nick Ayers considering Gov.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #990 on: May 02, 2017, 02:32:55 PM »

Stacey Abrams is in:

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/02/georgia-2018-abrams-files-paperwork-to-run-for-governor/
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #991 on: May 02, 2017, 09:07:30 PM »


She doesn't need to win the primary. A black can't win statewide in Georgia, at least not yet. The Democrat would need to crack 30% of the white vote. Abrams can't do that.
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Barnes
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« Reply #992 on: May 02, 2017, 09:15:27 PM »

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #993 on: May 02, 2017, 09:43:51 PM »

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Boo
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #994 on: May 03, 2017, 12:49:14 AM »

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #995 on: May 03, 2017, 12:54:14 AM »

I am under the impression, perhaps falsely, that Abrams wants to be the first Black woman elected President. She's certainly an inspirational figure, but it seems that she would be better off waiting a couple more cycles. Still, we need fewer old white men running the helm. I wish her well.
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Barnes
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« Reply #996 on: May 03, 2017, 01:05:55 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 01:13:08 AM by Barnes »

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...

Oh I'm simply pointing out that black Democrats have won statewide offices in Georgia many times. The 2010 election was quite devastating for the state Democrats as they held many of the statewide offices below the Governor with incumbents who were in for years and either retired or in Baker and Thurmond's case both ran unsuccessfully for a promotion. The electoral shifts have obviously been the main factor but incumbency would have, in my opinion, at least placed the Democrats at even odds for those races in 2010.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #997 on: May 03, 2017, 01:06:22 AM »

I am under the impression, perhaps falsely, that Abrams wants to be the first Black woman elected President. She's certainly an inspirational figure, but it seems that she would be better off waiting a couple more cycles. Still, we need fewer old white men running the helm. I wish her well.

I am absolutely color-blind. The only criterion i use: "who is the most qualified candidate?. Who has best chances to win?" If he/she is Black - run him/her! If it's brown,  yellow or "old white man" - run him. I don't care about color of skin.... No preferences by that... Absolutely....
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #998 on: May 03, 2017, 01:16:36 AM »
« Edited: May 03, 2017, 01:19:20 AM by smoltchanov »

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...

Oh I'm simply pointing out that black Democrats have won statewide offices in Georgia many times.

Absolutely, but only wanted to say that i seldom see signs of above mentioned "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition now. Mostly because white Southerners (especially - in rural areas, of which there is still a lot in the South) began to vote Republican with percentages approaching Black's percentages for Democrats. The whole geographic regions changed their voting habits in the last 10 years. The best example i have is not from Georgia, but Louisiana: Acadiana refused to go for Strom Thurmond and "defend segregation" as early as in 1948, when most of the state did. It refused to go for Barry Goldwater in 1964, while most of Louisiana did. It elected mostly Democrats to state legislature as late as 2007 (and most of them still serve because a term limit is 3 4-year terms). But beginning 2009-10 it swung to the right. When present day Democratic (and - mostly white) legislators retire in 2019 - it will be at least 2/3 (and may be, 3/4) Republican delegation (on congressional level Democrats are almost irrelevant already in this region). And this is not an isolated example....
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #999 on: May 03, 2017, 01:31:23 AM »

I am under the impression, perhaps falsely, that Abrams wants to be the first Black woman elected President. She's certainly an inspirational figure, but it seems that she would be better off waiting a couple more cycles. Still, we need fewer old white men running the helm. I wish her well.

I am absolutely color-blind. The only criterion i use: "who is the most qualified candidate?. Who has best chances to win?" If he/she is Black - run him/her! If it's brown,  yellow or "old white man" - run him. I don't care about color of skin.... No preferences by that... Absolutely....
I know you're not an American, but use of the phrase "color-blind" usually indicates racism in the States.
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