Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Barnes]

This flew understandably under the radar to the congressional race, but tomorrow is the runoff for the 32nd Georgia Senate district. This is actually inside of the Ga-6 and was estimated to have switched from a ten point Romney margin to a twenty point Clinton win in 2016. Still, the combined Republican vote was about 66% in April, and a lot of voters didn't realize this would be on a separate date from the congressional runoff.

[Adam Griffin]

This flew understandably under the radar to the congressional race, but tomorrow is the runoff for the 32nd Georgia Senate district. This is actually inside of the Ga-6 and was estimated to have switched from a ten point Romney margin to a twenty point Clinton win in 2016. Still, the combined Republican vote was about 66% in April, and a lot of voters didn't realize this would be on a separate date from the congressional runoff.

I believe your numbers are a bit off there. Trump won SD32 by 13 and the April 18 R/D combined votes were 60/40.

It's a very uphill district, but I have a good feeling Triebsch will overperform due to her campaign's efforts. My county party up here actually helped fill out a couple thousand postcards for her a couple of weeks ago!

[Barnes]

Lol, yep you're right, Adam. I misread the article from which I got that info. The 6th District, which is being vacated by Hunter Hill, actually switched from a Romney to Clinton stronghold.

What's really funny is that Triebsch has spent most of last week chaperoning her daughter's school trip to D.C. 

[The Other Castro]

Sally Yates rules out a 2018 run for Governor, but she could run for Senate in 2020 against Perdue.

https://twitter.com/IsaacDovere/status/864503108621275136

[Virginiá]

I'd like to see her run for GA Attorney General in '18. Keep up her profile in preparation for 2020's Senate race. After all, that is a smidgen less than 4 years from now.

Although, on the other hand, if she lost that it might be counterproductive..

[krazen1211]

Georgia Democrats are suing to get mid-decade redistricting in Gwinnett County and asking the state legislature to redraw the districts.

Link

In a move unrelated to the pending lawsuit, state Rep. Pedro Marin, D-Duluth, has also filed bills that would re-draw Gwinnett’s commission and school board districts.

Link
Link

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd like to see her run for GA Attorney General in '18. Keep up her profile in preparation for 2020's Senate race. After all, that is a smidgen less than 4 years from now.

Although, on the other hand, if she lost that it might be counterproductive.

I agree with this very much.

[The Other Castro]

Former Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) will NOT run for Governor.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/24/georgia-2018-lynn-westmoreland-is-not-running-for-governor/

[Adam Griffin]

The Battle of the Staceys commences: Stacey Evans announces her bid for Governor.

[smoltchanov]

The Battle of the Staceys commences: Stacey Evans announces her bid for Governor.

Which Stacey is better?

[Kingpoleon]

The Battle of the Staceys commences: Stacey Evans announces her bid for Governor.

Which Stacey is better?

Stacey Abrams is rather left wing for Georgia. Evans is at least a bit to her right.

[Barnes]

Not really, no. Abrams has been heavily criticized by some Democrats (at least privately) for cooperating with Ralston, the Speaker of the House, and Nathan Deal.

Evans, meanwhile, is making opposition to the HOPE reforms, which Abrams helped negotiate, a central plank of her platform.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! But Evans is white. And that will matter too, one way or another..

[Barnes]

It it does turn out to be a battles of the Staceys, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Georgia's history where the nominee of either major party is a woman. This will also be the first election since 1990 that a woman will be on the general election ballot.

[_]

It it does turn out to be a battles of the Staceys, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Georgia's history where the nominee of either major party is a woman. This will also be the first election since 1990 that a woman will be on the general election ballot.

Is Cagle likely to win the GOP Nomination?

[Barnes]

It it does turn out to be a battles of the Staceys, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Georgia's history where the nominee of either major party is a woman. This will also be the first election since 1990 that a woman will be on the general election ballot.

Is Cagle likely to win the GOP Nomination?

He is, in many ways, the default candidate, mainly by simply sitting in his role of Lieutenant Governor for twelve years now. He has very few political allies in the Legislature, however, and not much influence within the Senate majority.

That being said, people are only vaguely aware of Kemp, and many probably because of the voter hacking fiasco. I should except the race to add more candidates, but Cagle's withdrawal from the 2010 primary probably endeared him with enough power players to stop a very forceful challenge.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If Evans jumped in, that points to Carter sitting this race out. And that's sad because he's head and shoulders above Abrams as a candidate, and I feel would have beaten her in a primary. I'm not so sure about Evans.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Stacey's and Jason Carter were the only Dem candidates I was aware of exploring a run. Are there any other prospective Dem primary challengers?

[Maxwell]

It it does turn out to be a battles of the Staceys, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Georgia's history where the nominee of either major party is a woman. This will also be the first election since 1990 that a woman will be on the general election ballot.

Is Cagle likely to win the GOP Nomination?

He is, in many ways, the default candidate, mainly by simply sitting in his role of Lieutenant Governor for twelve years now. He has very few political allies in the Legislature, however, and not much influence within the Senate majority.

That being said, people are only vaguely aware of Kemp, and many probably because of the voter hacking fiasco. I should except the race to add more candidates, but Cagle's withdrawal from the 2010 primary probably endeared him with enough power players to stop a very forceful challenge.

Yeah I feel like Cagle and Kemp are probably the two co-frontrunners, but both strike as pretty weak, though not as weak as the infamous JOHN OXENDINE.

[Barnes]

The Stacey's and Jason Carter were the only Dem candidates I was aware of exploring a run. Are there any other prospective Dem primary challengers?

Not really, to my knowledge, anyway. A few people still bring up Michelle Nunn's name, but I think she's much more interested in running her charity to launch another political bid.

If you want to think of the Two Staceys (official name for this primary, btw) in terms of wings, Evans and Carter are both affiliated with Roy Barnes and take a much more suspicious take on cooperation with Republicans--more orthodox, I suppose.  Abrams is very close with Jon Ossoff and was an early and high-profile surrogate for Clinton in the state during the election, and, as I posted earlier, very effective in working with the Republicans in the General Assembly.

[Adam Griffin]

As much as it sucks, you do have to look at Democratic primaries through the lens of white/black constituencies and electorates in GA, as there is still considerable racial polarization (and not necessarily that much less than among the electorate at-large, though it obviously manifests differently). With Evans jumping in, it's very likely that there are no other white legislative Democrats planning to run, and it wouldn't surprise me if there had been conversations among the group prior to Evan's announcement.

There are only 4 white Democrats in the Senate (Nan Orrock, Curt Thompson, Steve Henson and Elena Parent) and about a dozen in the House; in a situation where somebody as influential as Abrams is running, more than one credible white Democratic primary candidate running would all but guarantee her the nomination given the demographic breakdown of the primary electorate (sans a very large, fractured field with multiple black candidates and/or a white candidate with Carter/Nunn-like status). Even if it were a case of "Generic Black Democrat" instead of Abrams, having 2 credible white challengers versus 1 credible black challenger would likely produce the same result. Depending on enthusiasm and turnout, GA's 2018 primary electorate could be anywhere from 45-60% black & 30-45% white.

Henson, Thompson and Scott Holcomb in the House would be the most likely to a) run out of the group of white Democrats and b) be legitimate entities, with Holcomb arguably having the best shot. Maybe Spencer Frye and Elena Parent would be as well, but to my knowledge, neither has been posturing in recent years for a gubernatorial bid. I'm pretty sure Holcomb and Evans are close, so if she's announced and there hasn't been a peep out of him about running, that pretty much rules him out. Henson is minority leader in the Senate, so he's almost certainly not going anywhere, either.

I wouldn't necessarily bet against somebody else from the black legislative caucus or just a credible black challenger in general announcing, though. I've never been submerged in Gold Dome politics but from occasional comments and stories I've heard, Abrams might not necessarily be a consensus candidate for black legislative Dems by default.

[Adam Griffin]

So I got to wondering, what might a primary map look like in a 50/50 scenario between these two candidates? Here is my best guess at it:

Red = Evans
Blue = Abrams
(no value statement being made by color scheme)



Northwest Georgia (5% of primary vote)

Almost insignificant in a Democratic primary, we wouldn't expect more than 1 in 20 voters to be from this corner of the state. However, NW GA's influence could be disproportionate in an Evans-Abrams match-up, given that Evans was born and raised in Ringgold. When factoring in a combination of Georgia's racial polarization + hometown effect, it's not difficult seeing Evans winning 3:1 here, earning herself 2-3 points in terms of statewide margin over Abrams from here alone.

Northeast Georgia (8% of primary vote)

While significantly more populated than NW GA, part of NE GA's influence in a Democratic primary will be nerfed by the reality that it is even more Republican. This part of the state includes the sparsely populated but heavily-white counties in the far north, along with (less so but still) substantially white exurban/suburban counties in the northern metro. The same racial polarization effects as seen in NW GA will be on display here, but a lack of hometown effect and (somewhat) less hostility toward "Atlanta"/more familiarity with Abrams in the southern portions of the region would mute Evan's totals by a bit. Evans carries this region by 2:1.

No Man's Land (5% of primary vote)

I call this No Man's Land in part because this area of Georgia is pretty devoid of its own cultural or regional distinctions, comprising the east-west strip of Georgia that is south of the ATL metro and north of the Fall Line (Columbus-Augusta-Macon). While certainly a bit more diverse than North Georgia, it is still a predominantly white area, substantially conservative and sparsely populated. With that being said, black voters will still be the largest voting bloc in this area. Evans would need to pull out a slight win here (55-45) or keep it as even as possible in order to avoid falling behind statewide, perhaps by tapping into the concerns of rural black voters and leveraging the anti-Atlanta attitudes that cross racial boundaries to some extent.

South Georgia (18% of primary vote)

If the nationalization of local elections continues, then South Georgia may not be as competitive - or as large a share of the electorate - as it is shown here. Historically, a much greater number of whites participate in local/state Democratic primaries here than vote for Democrats for federal/statewide office, due to those elections being the de-facto elections for countywide offices. In the past two midterms, however, we've seen a dramatic shift in a number of counties in terms of the percentage of primary ballots being pulled that are Democratic, likely indicating a white exodus from the primary as the local GOP machines increase in power. If a continuation of that trend occurs in 2018, then this region may be an Abrams rout - if these trends stabilize and/or reverse, however, it could be very close or even potentially a win for Evans.

Satellite Counties (10% of primary vote)

The five "satellite counties" in Georgia - in which the cities of Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon and Savannah are found - should be an easy win for Abrams as a whole, but margins matter. She winds up carrying Muscogee (Columbus), Bibb (Macon) and Richmond (Augusta) by 30 points or more. Chatham (Savannah) likely ends up being much closer and Evans handily carries Clarke (Athens), keeping Abram's overall margin in this grouping down to 60/40.

Suburban Atlanta (25% of primary vote)

Easily the fastest growing area in raw numbers, it remains to be seen what exact percentage of the electorate will be from Suburban Atlanta: this largely depends on whether 2016 swings were a one-off or not. Nevertheless, around 25% of the electorate, give or take a few points, should be from here. In addition, this could also affect the racial composition, which we might expect to be approximately half black, half non-black.

We'd expect Evans to easily carry Cobb (the county she represents), as well as Paulding, Carroll, Coweta, Fayette, Walton and Barrow counties; Abrams would likely carry Douglas, Henry, Rockdale, Newton and Spalding. Gwinnett, likely comparable in size to Cobb in terms of primary electorate, could go either way.

In the end, a tied map statewide would likely see this region roughly tied as well.

The Core (30% of primary vote)

Easily a plurality of the electorate, the tri-county cluster of Fulton, Dekalb and Cobb should be close to one out of three votes on Election Day. We'd expect this to be Abrams' strongest area, both because it is her home turf and because of the sheer number of black primary voters (likely 70% of voters). Despite its image as a haven of progressive white voters, we'd expect quasi-bloc voting among whites in favor of Evans (which is quite common in local primaries).

If black turnout is slightly down compared to the Obama years and Evans makes a small amount of inward roads with black voters, holding this area to 60/40 in favor of Abrams becomes a possibility - if it goes much more in favor of Abrams than that, then it's very unlikely that there is any feasible pathway for Evans to grab the nomination via the remainder of the state.

[Adam Griffin]

Cagle's team is gonna have to step it up: I'm not sure whether their system thinks my first name is Guns or if they have people broken down by issue and it's somehow got associated with the names in their lists, but I keep getting emails from them like this:



The reason I'm on his list is because I answered one of their loaded questionnaires way back when, and I'm sure I didn't put my name in as "Guns McGee" or whatever. The more I think about it, it might have been around the time that campus carry was being debated and he was "surveying" people about that (either that or RFRA).

[Rookie Yinzer]

^ Thanks for the analysis! I agree with the point you made with Evans needing to connect with rural black voters along that corridor of poor predominantly black counties(Taliaferro, Hancock, Warren, Washington, etc.) The message can work there and also in the Northwestern part of the state that she hails from.

On paper I am probably an Abrams voter. Young, African-American, progressive, college educated that resides in the 4th district, but I am leaning Evans at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

Just in case it hadn't been said yet, Carter is out (as is Reed):

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/05/31/georgia-2018-why-jason-carter-isnt-running-for-governor/