Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[nolesfan2011]

Notable: PPP polling is gonna come out with a GA primary poll soon, they polled Price and Broun against Chambliss on the GOP side and Barrow, Reed and Jason Carter on the Dem side (assuming for senate dunno about Gov).

I don't think Barrow, Carter or Reed are going to run for either though (Carter may in 2018 or 16 senate seat, Reed may not ever move beyond Mayor of ATL, Barrow has base issues and prolly just stays where he is unless he were to lose)

 

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.

Reed is the only viable candidate for this race it seems, he's somewhat popular among Republicans (not that it'd make much difference), and Deal has never been part of the GOP "in-crowd" here.  It would be a nice race, at least.

[nolesfan2011]

I don't see what part of the electorate Handel fills though, the people that would vote for her probably aren't *that* upset with Chambliss given that she was always viewed as a more moderate southern Republican rather than a Tea Party Republican.

Sure she got some ultra conservative bonafides over the Komen/PP thing but that isn't enough to make her capture the wing of the electorate that really hates Chambliss and won't vote for him in a primary no matter what.

I just don't see how her issue stances will come down that far to the right of Chambliss, thus he will just say "why are you running"? compared to someone like Tom Price who has an actual bone to pick and is right of Chambliss on issues.

On the plus side she does do ok in Metro ATL counties, so maybe she could pick that off from Chambliss, I'm ot sure

Ugh, why would they not poll Handel? How disappointing - she's my favorite to win this seat, but I don't know if she can get past the good ole' boys of the GOP with the run-off system.

[nolesfan2011]

Now, I'm long term cynical of GA Dem prospects to win anything statewide barring a major scandal plagued candidate running on the GOP side or a super conservative zealot like an Akin and the main reason why is they have hit a ceiling it seems, and they don't wanna do anything about it until "demographics" kick in.

Dems are stuck at 45-47% during  Prez election years with an Obama coalition turnout, and in off years they dip down below 46%, they don't seem to have any agenda or plan or effort in place to win the other 5-7% they need to win a statewide race and they are disorganized off the hilt.

They have no bench to really speak of, and they botch a lot of the state house/senate races too.  I mean they couldn't even recruit enough candidates for office this year, if every Democrat who had ran for state senate and state house this year had won, the Democrats still would not have a majority in the state legislature, that is plain crazy.

The people they find to run are often less than stellar anyway, and the district packing the GOP has done sure hasn't helped matters. It just seems plain impossible to get over the hump.. especially when all you can find is weak candidates to run against openly corrupt members of the legislature, who even the GOP doesn't like very much.

As for the congressional seats, in a district that includes the quite liberal Athens (UGA) the state party still couldn't find a candidate to run against Paul "pits of hell" Broun (even just a token candidate), The metro ATL based districts of Price and Woodall aren't even close though they really could be, and they didn't even bother to really try in the 2 north GA seats.

They just seem content to have their majority minority seats+Barrow and not bother beyond that.

I didn't even mention the fact the State Party has horrible fundraising and is always chronically short of cash compared to the well endowed GA GOP, and again is always infighting, yet the same people that don't seem to ever get the job done keep trading seats and positions.

Then they have a big super party every time they win some podunk nonpartisan mayors race or something, celebrating abysmal performance overall.


I also tend to think there will be a much weaker field than Dems expect for the Senate/Gov races, very likely to get retreads like Thurmond or Baker running again, being handed the nomination in soft primaries, then losing by 10 points in the general elex.  

Plus Dems have a bit of a racial issue, in the sense that a majority of the primary electorate is now black/hispanic but a majority of the state electorate is still white (the long term white flight from dems to gop in the south has hurt the party diversity).  The black/hispanic electorate is going to want a certain type of candidate, that may not be best for a statewide election, and the way a primary campaign is going to go would be vastly different from a general elex campaign.

Throw in the ATL and Athens white hipster liberal types.. and you just have a mess, a real motley crew, one group wants conservative moderates, the other wants ultra "liberal" firebrands who praise Obama at every turn and shouts epithets at the Tea Party, and the 3rd group wants people focused on diversity issues.. and it is gonna be hard to find a candidate that seemingly manages to do all 3.

Personally I just want relative moderates who have populist tendencies (non corporate, non bought) are involved with the issues of the minority communities (immigration, equality, poverty, housing, unemployment etc.) but still manage to talk to the state as a whole and can win not just the metro areas but the rural areas as well.

Not to mention not being unpopular (Roy Barnes) and a retread.. and they have to have enough energy to campaign, they can't just sit back and not bother.

[nolesfan2011]

And for the record my favorite recent GA candidates were people like Carol and Dubose Porter, David Poythress, Rand Knight, Dale Cardwell, Brian Westlake, Michael Mills etc. those are the types I think can win, yet most of them didn't make it out of primaries and we ended up with much weaker candidates.

Carol Porter was a political novice in a really tough climate (2010) but still managed to garner some GOP support, which was quite amazing given the climate and the partisan split, I thinks he would have won in a non GOP swing year.

Ironically it seems like these same people are either giving up on politics are getting pushed away from the party. I just don't like the elitism that I think has taken hold,

I mean it is all fine and dandy Obama won the national election, but he didn't win the state.. and  hooping and hollering you got the same total you did in 08 isn't that grand.

[nolesfan2011]

Demographics alone will keep Georgia Dems above the 45% level with even below average statewide candidates, but it won't get them over the hump.  Who knows though, in 2016 depending on how the map looks, if the Dem nominee has some money to spend they might put some in GA and see what they can do (same applies to Arizona), just bypass the state party and hire their own state staff and stuff.

Especially if that nominee has some blue collar appeal (like a Clinton, Schweitzer, Sherrod Brown), don't see someone like a Cuomo or an O'Malley doing that though.

Interesting analyses, guys.

What do you think will happen first-Georgia becoming a purple state at the Presidential level, or the Georgia state Democratic Party recovering? My money's on the former.  

[nolesfan2011]

Thanks man, appreciated.

and yea they do seem unsure what to do with themselves, they aren't even that effective in the opposition, and have a hard time deciding what to oppose/support and what to protest about and what to not make an issue over.

The CEO idea sounds fine, but I don't know any GA CEO's/business leaders who are really politically involved Dems? maybe people from the black business community? certainly not anyone from Chick-Fil-A

They are horrible at candidate recruitment though, from county level up..

I agree about the money thing, they never even had a chance.. I also forgot to add to the list of unopposed people, Austin Scott seat, not that it isn't lean R, but it had been held by a Dem for years before 2010 and the Dems didn't even bother to put up a candidate... craziness.

The maps are horrible I agree, the problem is the Dems caucus wasn't unified and didn't raise hell about it, because to be bluntly honest, the black members of the caucus were fine with the maps because it gave them incumbent protection (cause of all the minority seat packing). So they just rolled over and let the white Dems get shafted out of seats, and hurt the party as a whole.

The white liberals in the legislature, and a lot of the AA leaders are fine but the problem is they are just kind of stuck where they are, not really likely to lose their jobs, but not likely to move up the ladder either, regardless of ambition.

Baker just seems uncharasmatic and boring... I some random party activist type would run just to raise attention to issues and maybe catch fire, doesn't have to be an elected official, just someone who would be able to get in the primary debates and tour the state and stuff, see what happens.

The problem is, Dems in this state don't seem to have enough of an "indie" streak in them, their isn't a lot of Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Bob Kerrey, Heidi Heitkamp types who just run off the issues of their state/region and ignore the national party and national party leaders, which is why they don't win.

People too obsessed with "defending President Obama" while getting crushed, instead of running off the issues of the state.. I mean just take a look at the state party website, it ain't much different from the DNC site, which isn't good at all.

Meanwhile Jon Tester is running off issues like delisting wolves.. and he wins in a (light) red state.

Failure in rural areas is an issue too.. given that I am involved in the party, and have been involved in the party (mostly at the county level) I won't comment too heavily on individual counties but yea I see your point.

Excellent analysis nolesfan! And welcome to the forum!

I agree that the state Democratic Party just appears to be in shambles; it's been a decade but it still feels like the party just doesn't know what to do with itself now that it's not eternally in power. I'm hopeful for the future, but it always feels like the party's resurgence is always just one more cycle away.

More funding is essential, of course, but it's a bit hard to get money when you can't get results. Perhaps the party needs a couple of self-funders to run and win (or at least make things genuinely competitive) to prime the pump in that regard. There are tons of big corporations centered in Atlanta- maybe the Democratic Party could get the CEO of a big-name company to run, with a campaigned focused on being a party outsider. Of course, this assumes that the GA Dem's aren't horrible at candidate recruitment, which is yet to be proven.

On that note, a lack of financial support is why candidates like DuBose Porter and David Poythress got nowhere- they barely had enough money to even have a token campaign in the primary. I was an early supporter of Poythress and convinced some of my friends to vote for him, but at the same time I could tell from early on that his campaign wasn't likely to go anywhere.

The thing is, the people you're talking about aren't really getting pushed out of the party, necessarily- the GOP has done it. The 2012 map was absolutely toxic for Democrats in the General Assembly- IIRC there's only like three seats where a white Democrat is representing a majority white district. Everything else is Republican districts or black districts; this caused a ton of damage among what was left of the conservative Democrats in the Assembly.

The party's biggest problem is that we really have no bench. We have no statewide officeholders and our caucus in the legislature is pretty much just Jason Carter, a bunch of African Americans in VRA seats, and a handful of white liberals that'll be replaced by African Americans when they retire. Not saying that black legislators are automatically incapable of running a good statewide campaign, of course, but I doubt that a politician who's never had to appeal to a white constituency will be an easy sell in most of the state.

Don't knock Thurbert Baker, though. He's (sadly) probably the best candidate we have for Senate. It's worth noting that he was a black Attorney General in a southern state for a decade, which is remarkable in itself, and in 2006 he had the best margin of any Democrat statewide. He was even endorsed by a bunch of conservative organizations like the Georgia Sheriff's Association so he's definitely got some credible moderate appeal.

I wish I could do more to volunteer or something but there isn't really a local Democratic Party in my area- which, actually, probably says a lot in itself.

[nolesfan2011]

My personal politics and my personal experience in the state, and the state party is a microcosm of what is wrong really. Their is a disconnect between the interest groups that do good work (like unions, enviro groups, NAACP etc.) and the official "democratic party" that demands loyalty oaths and litmus tests, they hate boat shakers..

[nolesfan2011]

That is helpful, I tend to view an effort like that as being like the Nevada GOP and the Romney camp though.  Nevada GOP was so messed up it dragged down separate Romney efforts in the state, even though they tried to go around the party.  Dean Heller won though..

At least the GA Dems aren't as bad off as TN, AL, MS and LA dems though. we're "lucky"

Like Colorado and Virginia, a national candidate spending money and trying to support registration efforts could help get out a lot of Democratic votes too. There are a lot of people who don't vote because they feel their vote doesn't count due to the electoral college and also because they aren't interested in local races. These people tend to be Democratic leaning.

[nolesfan2011]

Yep I agree, if only the Dem candidates had any money to compete in those type of races.

Registration drives are critical but Dems still need to realize they are gonna have to win some more of the white vote to win the state, especially white men. Even if it is just suburban whites that would make the difference.

I think they should go try and get the rural vote again, simply because GA isn't as split of a state as VA, CO and NC are. It is still considerably more "southern" than either of the states that went for Obama in the south. So you can't just fuse a coalition of increased minority turnout coupled with affluent whites (mainly northern blue state expats, NOVA is like Maryland really).

The GA GOP is also having an identity battle between the rural and suburban Republicans, and the ones who are socially based or economically based. Romney Republicans vs. Santorum Republicans basically and on some issues like immigration, they have sided with the suburban Republicans over the rural ones.

With the immigration bill, they ticked off a lot of otherwise socially and economically conservative farmers who relied on the cheap labor undocumented immigrants provided, in favor of the suburban Republicans who were hollering about "benefits" and stuff.

The problem is Dems never made a play for that crowd, and messaged horribly, focusing on "racism" and "bigotry" related to the immigration law, rather than the economic and social impacts, which white voters especially rural ones are more concerned about.

Those farmers and such were never reached out to.

And yes South and Central GA does have rather high poverty rates among both whites and blacks, and plenty of people utilize medicare/medicaid, food stamps etc. even while the GOP rants and raves against them, its Dems who stick up for those programs. But again that point is never made and people aren't reached out to.

Price and Woodal's districts are way too Republican than they should be. They have a growing minority population and a ton of soft Republicans who vote GOP but are fine with things like gay marriage. A pro business Democrat, maybe a CEO, who possesses an air of independence on economic issues while holding the party line on social issues could certainly give Price a run for his money in the affluent 6th district, although I'm not sure he or she could win- just give the GOP a good scare.

Another thing that caught my eye. Obama lost Georgia by 300K votes. Which is a lot, but I can almost guarantee you that there are at least 300,000 or more Democratic leaning minorities out there (blacks, hispanics, asians) who could close the gap if they just bothered to register and vote in elections. Maybe making Georgia competitive isn't just about winning over moderates, maybe it's more about activating the fast growing minority population.

I have another question for you guys about the game plan: Should the Democratic Party here in GA try to fuse a coalition between minorities, Atlanta, and moderate suburbanites as we have seen in places like Virginia (NoVa) or should they try to appeal again to white voters in rural Georgia?

On the one hand, the moderate suburbs could be low hanging fruit if the Democrats here made a play. They're probably most likely to be turned off by the antiquated social views of the GOP. We've seen the same plan work in Northern Virginia and the Research Triangle. Many suburban areas of Atlanta are just as affluent and well educated so it makes some sense.
   
On the other hand, the Georgia GOP is increasingly becoming dominated by tea party types in the suburbs and exurbs (the "no new taxes EVER" crowd). Perhaps Democrats could convince rural voters that the Georgia GOP isn't taking care of their needs anymore. It seems to me like these voters in poorer areas are actually fine with activist government if they think it benefits them- one of the reasons Sanford Bishop does so well and John Barrow held on to his seat this year.

Whaddya think?

[nolesfan2011]

Jason is Jimmy's grandson

Does Jason Carter is of any relation to Jimmy Carter, this being Georgia?

[nolesfan2011]

PPP GA senate poll is out http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/chambliss-vulnerable-in-a-primary.html

"Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative. But Chambliss stomps most of the people who've shown the most interest in taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to head, has a 50/22 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23."

"By far and away the Republican who would pose the greatest threat to Chambliss in a primary, if he changed his mind about running, is Herman Cain. Cain would lead Chambliss 50-36 in a hypothetical match up. Cain has a 68/20 favorability rating with GOP primary voters, which compares quite favorably to Chambliss' 45/36 approval spread. Other long shot candidates we tested against Chambliss were Allen West, who trails 47/26, and Erick Erickson who trails 51/22."

"Chambliss is extremely weak with Republicans describing themselves as 'very conservative.' 61% of them would like to replace him, compared to only 23% who would like to see him nominated again. He would trail Cain 68/19 with that group of voters."

[nolesfan2011]

"In terms of the general election the Georgia Senate race is somewhat reminiscent of the Indiana contest this cycle- if Chambliss is the nominee the seat is probably safe for the GOP, but if someone far to his right wins the primary the Democrats might have a chance if everything goes their way.

The only Democrat who comes particularly close to Chambliss is 2002 foe Max Cleland, who despite being quite popular with a 50/27 favorability rating, only musters a tie at 45. Chambliss leads former Governor Roy Barnes 48-40, Congressman John Barrow 50-37, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed 52-37, and State Senator Jason Carter 52-34. Those folks are all of a higher caliber probably than who the Democrats will be able to get to run, and they still don't come all that close.
The reason Chambliss does so well against all of those folks is that he actually has a fair amount of appeal to Democrats. 28% approve of him, a lot more crossover support than we see for most politicians these days. If Chambliss was taken out in the primary, it's likely the Republicans would end up with a nominee who doesn't have that going for them. We tested Tom Price against all the Democrats as well and he would trail Cleland 47-39 and Barnes 46-40 while leading Barrow only 40-38, Reed 43-38, and Carter 42-36. It could have the potential to be a race if Chambliss does get primaried."

"-Chambliss' cross over appeal to Democrats would make him hard to defeat in a general election. But given the very real possibility of him losing to an extreme conservative candidate in the primary it might benefit Democrats to get a Joe Donnelly caliber candidate who doesn't have a lot to lose into the race, just in case..."

PPP GA senate poll is out http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/chambliss-vulnerable-in-a-primary.html

"Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative. But Chambliss stomps most of the people who've shown the most interest in taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to head, has a 50/22 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23."

"By far and away the Republican who would pose the greatest threat to Chambliss in a primary, if he changed his mind about running, is Herman Cain. Cain would lead Chambliss 50-36 in a hypothetical match up. Cain has a 68/20 favorability rating with GOP primary voters, which compares quite favorably to Chambliss' 45/36 approval spread. Other long shot candidates we tested against Chambliss were Allen West, who trails 47/26, and Erick Erickson who trails 51/22."

"Chambliss is extremely weak with Republicans describing themselves as 'very conservative.' 61% of them would like to replace him, compared to only 23% who would like to see him nominated again. He would trail Cain 68/19 with that group of voters."

[nolesfan2011]

So in short, though the GOP alternatives save Cain and Handel probably have lowish to medium name recognition, they are still trailing, though they haven't announced they are running so I dunno.

Broun wouldn't win, West won't run, Erickson/Cain aren't running, I do think Price could win though and I don't see where Handel would fit in all this.

Nathan Deal also declined to fully endorse Chambliss the other day.. saying it was "too early" basically, which isn't a good sign when the sitting governor is cautious to endorse the sitting senator. (Deal is under no real primary threat though).

Also worth noting State Senator Chip Rogers is going to resign to "spend more time with his family" so maybe he will primary Chambliss?

On the Dem side, Cleland is old he isn't going to run, Barrow and Reed probably don't want to lose their jobs to run, especially Reed who has a lot of influence as mayor of a big city like Atlanta and doesn't wanna give that up for an underdog senate race.  Same goes with Carter who is still trying to move up in his political career and can't afford a setback.

Barrow also has party base issues, so may have unity problems, not to mention Chambliss is picking off 1/4th of Democrats which is just not good, and shows how weak the party still is because of poor messaging and agendizing.

I really think Dems are gonna get a weaker candidate than they realize.. maybe ex- blue dog central GA rep Jim Marshall who is out of a job and has nothing to lose or Thurbert Baker who is also not in elected office.  

Even if Tom Price is the nominee, I still don't see Dems beating him because they won't have the money for one thing.

"In terms of the general election the Georgia Senate race is somewhat reminiscent of the Indiana contest this cycle- if Chambliss is the nominee the seat is probably safe for the GOP, but if someone far to his right wins the primary the Democrats might have a chance if everything goes their way.

The only Democrat who comes particularly close to Chambliss is 2002 foe Max Cleland, who despite being quite popular with a 50/27 favorability rating, only musters a tie at 45. Chambliss leads former Governor Roy Barnes 48-40, Congressman John Barrow 50-37, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed 52-37, and State Senator Jason Carter 52-34. Those folks are all of a higher caliber probably than who the Democrats will be able to get to run, and they still don't come all that close.
The reason Chambliss does so well against all of those folks is that he actually has a fair amount of appeal to Democrats. 28% approve of him, a lot more crossover support than we see for most politicians these days. If Chambliss was taken out in the primary, it's likely the Republicans would end up with a nominee who doesn't have that going for them. We tested Tom Price against all the Democrats as well and he would trail Cleland 47-39 and Barnes 46-40 while leading Barrow only 40-38, Reed 43-38, and Carter 42-36. It could have the potential to be a race if Chambliss does get primaried."

"-Chambliss' cross over appeal to Democrats would make him hard to defeat in a general election. But given the very real possibility of him losing to an extreme conservative candidate in the primary it might benefit Democrats to get a Joe Donnelly caliber candidate who doesn't have a lot to lose into the race, just in case..."

PPP GA senate poll is out http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/12/chambliss-vulnerable-in-a-primary.html

"Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative. But Chambliss stomps most of the people who've shown the most interest in taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to head, has a 50/22 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23."

"By far and away the Republican who would pose the greatest threat to Chambliss in a primary, if he changed his mind about running, is Herman Cain. Cain would lead Chambliss 50-36 in a hypothetical match up. Cain has a 68/20 favorability rating with GOP primary voters, which compares quite favorably to Chambliss' 45/36 approval spread. Other long shot candidates we tested against Chambliss were Allen West, who trails 47/26, and Erick Erickson who trails 51/22."

"Chambliss is extremely weak with Republicans describing themselves as 'very conservative.' 61% of them would like to replace him, compared to only 23% who would like to see him nominated again. He would trail Cain 68/19 with that group of voters."

[nolesfan2011]

Yep, Alabama (and Mississippi and Louisiana) has much less of a urban/rural divide, they are simply states that are more rural.  Georgia just happens to have Atlanta metro area+ a few other decently sized cities.  Georgia is also the largest state in the deep south, and really the Tennessee GOP is more like the GA GOP, that would be the best comparison.

The GA GOP is also having an identity battle between the rural and suburban Republicans, and the ones who are socially based or economically based. Romney Republicans vs. Santorum Republicans basically and on some issues like immigration, they have sided with the suburban Republicans over the rural ones.

With the immigration bill, they ticked off a lot of otherwise socially and economically conservative farmers who relied on the cheap labor undocumented immigrants provided, in favor of the suburban Republicans who were hollering about "benefits" and stuff.

Do you think a lot of what you said here (rural vs. suburban split) can be applied next door to the Alabama GOP?  

Alabama doesn't have as many suburban Republicans, since it's a largely rural state. The only largely suburban area that packs some punch would be Shelby County, a bedroom community for Birmingham. But that group pales in comparison to rural conservatives.  By and large, Alabama Republicans are likely to stay united in the future because they're much more dominated by rural interests.

[nolesfan2011]

Very good point on the immigration stuff, I disagree that South GA isn't reachable though, the problem is the state party (and by proxy its candidates) don't seem to message well at all.  When the law was being debated they spent for time rallying about "racism" and "racial profiling" and "hate" instead of about economic impact and impact on the state's "job creators" (farmers, restauranters, other small business).

The focus on hispanics and race seemed to get x2 as much as attention as the economic issues did (probably influenced by the demographics of the state party at this point).  Meanwhile the farmers and business owners were pleading that the law would be a disaster (and disparaging their Republican elected officials who wanted to replace migrant workers with prison labor).

The Dems could have stepped up and been a strong voice of opposition for the farmer, the old populist/greenback party messaging of little guy vs. the big guy, but they didn't.

I still think it is reachable though if the candidates message better and differently, and especially get away from the Metro Atlanta orbit.

The problem with the packing of the Dems is that they all got packed into Metro ATL+ a few other larger cities and don't seem to understand rural Georgia anymore (They get crushed in far north GA too). They think Georgia is just "modern" Atlanta+ a bunch of backwards rednecks (Yes, I've heard this sentiment expressed before at Dem meetings) and they don't even try.

Really Dems could get a lock on both the hispanic vote, and the rural vote if they handle it right, different messages for different audiences. The fact is though, many white voters probably feel the Dems are just accusing them of being racists and nobody wants to hear that.

We need to be encouraging unity not just us vs. them. '

Plus connect a personal level (like that story you mentioned about the pine straw guy). The big thing is though, in a lot of these rural seat races, the Dems aren't even running candidates anymore, and the GOP is running unopposed.

Lastly, the State Dems are still too obsessed with national issues and orbit than the local stuff. They need to be acting like West Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, North Carolina etc. Democrats.  Rally around local issues and concerns (like the immigration issue, education, college funding etc.) instead of "make the rich pay their fair share!" "stand with our President" memeing all day.

Could that give the Democrats an opportunity in South Georgia?

Not in the short run, no.  The GO has really ensconced itself in the lower half of the state, and it's not really a possibility that effective inroads can be made there in the near future.  In general, voters down there don't really connect (or do, but don't care anyway) their anger with their policies of the Republicans and their ability to vote them out for the Democrats.

[nolesfan2011]

I mean just look at the State Party facebook page https://www.facebook.com/georgiademocrat. A majority of the posts are about Obama/Romney and Boehner/House GOP.  Not even state level stuff.  That just doesn't connect with people when 55% of the state is conservative/Republican. 

They also bash the GOP more than they run off their own issues, which again isn't that effective. It just comes off as weak.

On the plus side, they have done pretty well with Women (probably do the GA GOP pushing atrocious anti choice laws in the legislature) but they haven't connected with the poor and unemployed as much as they should.

GA has a pretty high poverty rate, across all race and age demographics, meanwhile the GOP has been determined to slash benefits and make it harder for people to qualify (food stamps, drug testing for welfare, education cuts, unemployment benefit cuts, refusal to expand medicaid).  Dems really should be hitting home on those issues, with LBJ/FDR style "we care about everyone" politics.

[nolesfan2011]

Appears Congressman Phil Gingrey is jumping into the GOP primary for the senate race and the corrupt Casey Cagle is "polling" on it

[nolesfan2011]

Breaking: Paul Broun throws his hat in the ring.. announced by his wife at a Gwinnett County dinner of some sort.

So Broun and Gingrey are both in..

[nolesfan2011]

Westmoreland is OUT http://atr.rollcall.com/georgia-westmoreland-wont-run-for-senate/

[nolesfan2011]

and "Official Senate bid announcement from Paul Broun has been scheduled Wednesday 4pm at the Grand Hyatt in ATL"

This is all happening too quickly.

Kasim Reed bows out of Senate race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/

[nolesfan2011]

Sanford Bishop gets crossover appeal for the same reason that he gets a pass on his corruption problems- he keeps a low profile and stays out of the limelight. That's why he won't run for the Senate and also why he'd lose if he did.

Also, as for Thurbert Baker, I'll let the 2006 map speak for itself

good points

[nolesfan2011]

The Barr campaign team:

• Barr's general consultant hates the Tea Party and has worked for the DCCC.
• The chief strategist was in charge of Oxendine's 2010 campaign (for non-Georgians, Oxendine was the guy who went from unstoppable frontrunner to 4th place finisher in about a month).
• The pollster did the internals for the Gingrich 2012 campaign (who thought Nevada was neck-and-neck, among other silly things).
• The ad-man is the guy who created hits such as "Demon Sheep," "I'm not a witch," "Chinese lady thanks Debbie Spenditnow," "Ben Quayle wants to knock the hell out of things," and "Jon Huntsman rides a dirtbike through the desert for a really long time".

There is no way this campaign ends up with some sort of hilarious implosion!

Maybe Baby Doc can fly up to Georgia to campaign for him!

Ok that bit of news is just awesome... now I can't wait for the implosion. LOL

[nolesfan2011]

Paul only got 6.5% of the primary vote this time around, and similar in 08, so he doesn't have a massive base here. Not sure if it really helps Broun with votes, especially since a lot of those Paul voters were probably crossover youth votes too (the same people that wrote in Charles Darwin to protest Broun just a few months later). They don't have the same groups of supporters really.

That being said it helps with fundraising and outside volunteers more than anything I guess. 

[nolesfan2011]

with Barrow out, short of Broun winning, not sure how Dems win this.

[nolesfan2011]

Per NRO, Handel's entry is a matter of "when", not "if."

http://www.nationalreview.com/node/347960

Yep, and no real room for Price in that GOP field.. he would rather keep house leadership which makes sense.

I don't see a path to victory for Michelle Nunn, even if she is a copy of the wonderful Carol Porter, she didn't win either (against the corrupt and unlikable Cagle) granted it was 2010 but still, both are "strong businesswomen with experience in politics" both will probably do something folksy related to "good government" etc. and I don't see it working.