Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[JRP1994]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

[JRP1994]

We had better be praying that the GOP nominee in Georgia IS sane. Because, as much as I want to see my home state become more progressive, I fear that the time is still a few election cycles off. Georgia right now would probably elect a Todd Akin style nut.

[JRP1994]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/02/14/two-billionaires-line-up-behind-michelle-nunn/

Warren Buffett and Michael Bloomberg now supporting Nunn.

[JRP1994]

I was at the GOP debate in Macon, GA last night. Got to meet all 7 candidates and briefly interview them.

The debate held a straw poll, and Karen Handel won. The runner-up (I think) was David Perdue.

[JRP1994]

Georgia Governor race: now lean rep for Sabato

I'm actually beginning to think that Carter is likely to outperform Nunn.

[JRP1994]

I agree that Carter is now better positioned than Nunn, with the GOP primary fortunes of Broun and Gingrey falling and Deal looking worse and worse.  However, Nunn could have a populist opening against Perdue with his recent college education comments.  I'm starting to worry about Handel again if she gets momentum from that gaffe. 

The biggest loser might end up being John Barrow for declining any statewide run this year.

I agree. Honestly, Carter comes across as a more serious candidate than Nunn, in my opinion. With her, I see a lot of generic rhetoric and not much substance... Where's the beef?

[JRP1994]

Is there a chance that Paul Bbroun gets the nomination?

Yes. This is Georgia.

[JRP1994]

A few comments, from a GA resident who has personally seen and met all 7 GOP candidates and Michelle Nunn:

1) David Perdue is BY FAR the most professional/has the most gravitas.

2) Jack Kingston is quite personable, but when speaking on stage, makes John Kerry look exciting.

3) I have heard - and recorded - Phil Gingrey, in a debate, saying that one of the serious evils in our society is rap music. The man is arguably a worse candidate than Paul Broun.

4) Karen Handel is not to be underestimated. Remember, she actually BEAT Nathan Deal in the primary, then narrowly lost the runoff. She has immense grassroots support, and could probably make it to the runoff.

4) Michelle Nunn is nice and personable, but I do not see her as a candidate who can motivate those who do not usually vote, to vote. Unless the GOP nominee is an unmitigated disaster, I don't see her outperforming Jim Martin's turnout.

[JRP1994]

Oh wow. Phil Gingrey's campaign is a disaster. What the hell happened?

He started talking.

[JRP1994]

Chamber has bought $32k of pro-Kingston ads to run in Atlanta and Macon.

I live in Macon, and already average seeing a Kinsgton ad every 48 hours or so.

[JRP1994]

http://www.macon.com/2014/05/18/3102709/endorsements.html

Macon Telegraph endorses David Perdue and Michelle Nunn.

[JRP1994]

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2014/06/06/kingston-atop-perdue-in-gop-runoff-for-us-senate-and-right-to-face-nunn-in-november-deal-maintains-lead-over-carter-for-governor/

Kinston 52%, Perdue 41%

Kingston 43%, Nunn 37%

Perdue 43%, Nunn 38%

Deal 44%, Carter 38%

I've decided that I'm going to troll the GOP runoff by voting for Perdue.

[JRP1994]

http://m.wsbtv.com/videos/news/ad-zell-miller-endorses-michelle-nunn/vCnWJb/

Zell Miller endorsed Michelle Nunn.

This is HUGE. Miller endorsed Saxby Chambliss in the 2008 runoff, and PPP found him with a 64/7 favorability among GA Republicans.

[JRP1994]

Plus he's a Harvard grad. Just throwing that out there.

[JRP1994]

Something several of y'all need to remember is that Georgia isn't first past the post. It's a runoff state in the general unless the winning candidate gets 50% + 1. And the Libertarian candidate usually gets somewhere around 2-3% of the vote in Georgia.

If election night looks like this:

Abrams: 49%
Kemp: 47%
Libertarian: 3%
Other/Write In: 1%

Abrams probably loses because runoffs have been a political death sentence for GA Dems recently. The question isn't whether Abrams can get more votes, it's whether she can get a majority the first time with third party candidates included.

[JRP1994]

Something several of y'all need to remember is that Georgia isn't first past the post. It's a runoff state in the general unless the winning candidate gets 50% + 1. And the Libertarian candidate usually gets somewhere around 2-3% of the vote in Georgia.

If election night looks like this:

Abrams: 49%
Kemp: 47%
Libertarian: 3%
Other/Write In: 1%

Abrams probably loses because runoffs have been a political death sentence for GA Dems recently. The question isn't whether Abrams can get more votes, it's whether she can get a majority the first time with third party candidates included.

This is not necessarily true. If a runoff were to occur, only voters who are enthusiastic, or regular voters would show up. Its quite possible that, due to the nature of the Trump era, it will be Abrams' voters who will show up. In special elections in GA, Dems have over preformed in runoffs, so I dont see why that would change for Abrams.

That's fair, but even in incredibly favorable environments for Democrats with extremely high enthusiasm, runoffs in Georgia have been huge disappointments. See: 2008 general election vs runoff here in Georgia

[JRP1994]

If you're explaining, you're losing. Why even acknowledge their dumb ad?

The "ignore unfounded attack it goes away" strategy did work well for President Kerry