Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Barr campaign team:

• Barr's general consultant hates the Tea Party and has worked for the DCCC.
• The chief strategist was in charge of Oxendine's 2010 campaign (for non-Georgians, Oxendine was the guy who went from unstoppable frontrunner to 4th place finisher in about a month).
• The pollster did the internals for the Gingrich 2012 campaign (who thought Nevada was neck-and-neck, among other silly things).
• The ad-man is the guy who created hits such as "Demon Sheep," "I'm not a witch," "Chinese lady thanks Debbie Spenditnow," "Ben Quayle wants to knock the hell out of things," and "Jon Huntsman rides a dirtbike through the desert for a really long time".

There is no way this campaign ends up with some sort of hilarious implosion!

Maybe Baby Doc can fly up to Georgia to campaign for him!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Guys who should I vote for

Paul Broun!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh. My. God.

This is the best thing I've seen in a while

That was up there with the demon sheep ad.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jack Kingston has a great radio ad up on the big conservative talk radio stations, featuring a great Obama impersonation:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2gTI_bAPqM

Excellent ad; excellent strategy. Very well played on the Kingston campaign's part

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

NR got their hands on Nunn's campaign plan... which covers everything. 140-odd pages. Lots of interesting things in it.

Yes, I've begun reading it.

IIRC, they estimated that Minnesota is the DSCC's fifth highest priority.  Is there something we don't know about?  I doubt it, but...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

1) What is do they think about Kasim Reed, John Barrow, Sam Olens, and Brian Kemp.

2) If Isakson retired, would they be open to voting for Barrow if he runs for the open seat?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

DSCC putting an additional $1 million into Georgia, with Democratic internals supposedly showing Nunn leading Perdue and close to 50%

I find it hard to believe too, but I'll take whatever good news I can get these days.  I wouldn't be surprised if she's leading Perdue though.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yates should run for state AG.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Boo

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ahahahahahaha Kingpoleon busted!

Could be worse - I could have to wear the Avatar of Shame known as Oklahoma.

You have an Arkansas avatar...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

ahahahahahaha Kingpoleon busted!

Could be worse - I could have to wear the Avatar of Shame known as Oklahoma.

You have an Arkansas avatar...

Indeed, but I don't have the avatar of a failed, incompetent state party.

Again, you have an Arkansas avatar.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think we should be able to peel off at least SoS and AG. Hopefully more but we’ll just have to see how the environment is in November. It’s shaping up to be a blue year but the question is if the GB margin grows and by how much.

Who do we have running for AG?  Any chance we pickup Insurance Commissioner and/or State School Superintendent?  On paper it looks like we have credible candidates in those races, at least from an out-of-state perspective.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think we should be able to peel off at least SoS and AG. Hopefully more but we’ll just have to see how the environment is in November. It’s shaping up to be a blue year but the question is if the GB margin grows and by how much.

Who do we have running for AG?  Any chance we pickup Insurance Commissioner and/or State School Superintendent?  On paper it looks like we have credible candidates in those races, at least from an out-of-state perspective.

No one of either party has announced for AG just yet as far as I can tell.

EDIT: You can’t file to run for AG until June

Why?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Clay Tippins will launch television ads during the Super Bowl in Albany, Columbus, and Macon media markets. Ads will begin airing in Atlanta market on Monday.

It will feature a Casey Cagle look-a-like in a tuxedo, to take a shot at his past as a tuxedo store owner.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/clay-tippins-makes-super-bowl-sized-splash-georgia-gov-race/0mneWKEAk17CCOXqjKvzNL/

Some Max Baucus-style subliminal gaydar baiting?

Probably

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Here's the ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEKcd4-UIHE&pbjreload=10

That was a pretty good ad, given the target audience imo

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The portrayals of Casey Cagle in these commercials is hilarious.  Poor guy.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

Not particularly. We'll need more polls to get a real idea of what's happening, but I'm not very confident that outer metro ATL is going to behave in 2018 how it did in 2016. Even if it did, that alone wouldn't be enough - you need a real rural rebound for 2018 victory regardless of what various candidates claim. Also, look at state legislative special elections for an idea: some have overperformed expectations (and even flipped), but a good chunk have performed exactly as expected (i.e. several points worse than in a normal election cycle).

You also have the uncanny reality of GA behaving contrary to the national climate (at least in the gubernatorial elections) for the past 5 cycles; whenever the country swings left, GA swings right; and vice-versa. Of course this isn't a guarantee, but there's clear precedent for GA to ignore the national climate in midterm elections relative to its past performance.

Do you think we have a shot at picking up GA-7 or the SoS office?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Evans was a defense lawyer for Bank of America/Countrywide when they were accused of predatory lending practices:



https://www.theroot.com/when-white-politicians-profit-off-black-pain-and-then-g-1825823106

Interesting for someone who has been working overtime and telling mistruths to characterize herself as the real progressive and the better choice for the African-American community.

ETA: Another awful Kemp ad where he brags about having a truck big enough to round up "illegals".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Q1cfjh6VfE&feature=youtu.be

Attacking lawyers for their clients’ crimes is really sketchy.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At this time, Abrams should pull out a narrow victory. Could get wider later in the year.

This map is among the most ridiculous I have seen. This would be a landslide for Abrams, which, even if she wins, won't happen because Georgia is inelastic.

<2% win = Landslide? lol

That map is not a <2% win, despite the map-maker's believe to the contrary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The much awaited sequel has arrived
https://youtu.be/Y6htgrVPi7A

The father-in-law not pointing his gun directly at you is a good sign in Southern culture. Looks like they're making progress!

Gotta admit, it's a solid ad in a cheesy sort of way.  I've seen much worse.