Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

REQUIRED VIEWING



So everyone, think Barrow will hang on? How about that Charter Schools amendment? Will Democrats have a chance at anything in 2014, or 2016? Just how much is our state trending to the left?

Discuss!

[Bacon King]

Good luck...

...PEACH-BREATH FOOLS

oh yeah well

our state's official sweet onion can beat up your state's official sweet onion

[Bacon King]

WOW.

Only 40% of "other" voters voted early in 2008.

Assuming the same trend holds this year, it's entirely possible that we might see a total electorate of something like, 60% white, 30% black, 10% other.

[Bacon King]

Wow, yeah, awesome maps!

And indeed, it was especially bad to see Doug Stoner lose to the GOP gerrymander.

For those who don't know, the composition of a locality's delegation is very important in the Georgia General Assembly. The practice of local deference requires all "local bills" that affect specific counties/cities/etc to first be approved by a majority of all legislators with any part of their district's territory covering that area, before it's considered at all by the rest of the chamber.

The GOP pulled an atrocious gerrymander with Fulton County in redistricting: you can see it in the State Senate map but it's even worse in the State House map. You see, in the latter map, how HDs 22, 25, 40, and 95 each dip into Fulton County to take in a single precinct? Because of all this, Fulton County is now represented in the House by 13 Republicans and 12 Democrats, and in the Senate by 7 Republicans and 4 Democrats. GA Republicans can now impose literally whatever they want on Fulton County.

[Bacon King]

Cross-posting this analysis here. As soon as these seats are open (or there's a serious primary challenger) then the number of white Democrats in the legislature will shrink even more than the 12 or so that lost last week. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Democrats' already depleted bench, unless you think a black could win statewide (Kasim Reed maybe?).

Georgia State Senate: 56 members total; 18 Democrats (5 white Democrats)

Curt Thompson (District 5): He represents a slice of Gwinnett County cutting from Norcross to northern Lawrenceville.
SD 5 is 38% Hispanic, 28% Black.
Steve Thompson (District 33): He represents a slice of Cobb County from Austell to Central Marietta.
SD 33 is 34% Black, 16% Hispanic.
Nan Orrack (District 36): She represents a district centered around Midtown and Downtown Atlanta.
SD 36 is 57% Black (but the whites here are very liberal).
Steve Henson (District 41): He represents a district that reaches from Central Dekalb to Tucker, and then extends a tendril into Gwinnett to take in part of Lilburn. SD 41 is 50% Black, 12% Hispanic.
Jason Carter (District 42): He represents a Decatur-based district. Tons of white liberals.
SD 42 is 24% Black, 12% Hispanic.


Georgia State House: 180 members; 60 Democrats (13 white Democrats).

Stacey Evans (District 42): She represents Southeast Marietta, in Cobb County.
HD 42 is 39% Black, 23% Hispanic.
Pat Gardner (District 57): She represents a precinct-wide strip of territory from super-black to super-white Atlanta.
HD 57 is 55% Black.
Margaret Kaiser (District 59): She represents a district like Gardner's.
HD 59 is 56% Black.
Scott Holcomb (District 81): He represents the Chamblee/Doraville area, in northern Dekalb County.
HD 81 is 35% Hispanic, 10% Black.
Mary Oliver (District 82): She represents the white liberals in the Druid Hills area north of Decatur.
HD 82 is 20% Hispanic, 15% Black.
Karla Drenner (District 85): She represents another noodle district, taking in liberal whites north of Decatur as well as blacks south of Decatur.
HD 85 is 57% Black.
Michelle Henson (District 86): She represents another noodle, directly to the East of Drenner's district.
HD 86 is 61% Black.
Pam Stephenson (District 90): She represents some territory bisected by the Henry-Rockdale County line.
HD 90 is 67% Black.
Hugh Floyd (District 99): He represents a district between Lilburn and Norcross in SW Gwinnett.
HD 99 is 52% Hispanic, 22% Black.
Brian Thomas (District 100): He represents the area just north of Lilburn in Gwinnett County.
HD 100 is 34% Hispanic, 32% Black.
Spencer Frye (District 118): He represents the northern half of Athens-Clarke.
HD 118 is 30% Black, 12% Hispanic.
Debbie Buckner (District 137): She represents the outskirts of Columbus and adjacent rural territory.
HD 137 is 52% Black.
Carol Fullerton (District 153): She represents northeastern Albany.
HD 153 is 59% Black.




(All figures are VAP for 2010 Census, taken directly from the legislature's redistricting reports)

[Bacon King]

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

Indeed. My ideal statewide candidates for 2014 would probably be Kasim Reed for Governor, and John Barrow for Senate; I think they could both have a decent chance of winning. Any idea of either of them have plans for higher office?

[Bacon King]

http://gawker.com/5960846/gop-lawmakers-in-georgia-hold-closed+door-session-on-conspiracy-theory-involving-president-obama-the-united-nations-and-mind-control

WTF, Georgia Republicans?

[Bacon King]

I figured I'd post this here since the Georgia Redistricting Thread seems to be so far back I couldn't find it.

Yesterday in IRC, Adam Griffin showed me a redistricted Georgia, with ten Democratic seats, which he claimed was inspired by Georgia's 2002-2004 Congressional map.

I found his effort lacking as it didn't overreach nearly enough, or have boundaries nearly insane enough, to accurately claim to be a successor to the 2002 Barnes-o-mander. While it does ignore the VRA, here's my effort at a true Democratic gerrymander worthy of Georgia's history. 11 seats that voted for Obama, only 3 that voted for McCain. Isn't it beautiful?!?

[Bacon King]

By how much, though? Unless you're drawing Obama-voting seats that a Democrat should usually win, it's pretty pointless. I'd take 8 56% Obama seats over 11 50% Obama seats any day.

Well, that's kind of the point- the Democrats reached for seven seats with the 2002 map, but only got five

But here's the margins below! Note that there's definitely room for improvement; what with safe districts next to very marginal districts; this was more a proof of concept than anything.

Cream: Obama +15.4
Dark Blue: Obama + 11.0
Light Blue in NE: Obama + 10.1
Purple: Obama + 9.8
Dark Orange: Obama + 6.4
Lime Green in NW: Obama + 4.9
Light Gray: Obama + 2.4
Light Orange: Obama + 1.9
Light Blue in SE: Obama + 1.9
Lime Green in SW: Obama + 1.9
Dark Gray: Obama + 1.8

Black: McCain + 44.6
Pink: McCain + 49.4
Brown: McCain + 49.6

[Bacon King]

For the record,

Georgia 1992 congressional map:



Georgia 2002 congressional map:



Georgia 2006 congressional map:




Georgia's current map is at the link here

[Bacon King]

It's time for the first edition of

GEORGIA 2014 RACE WATCH

• Chambliss is obviously running for reelection and has $1.4 million in the bank.
• Tom Price sounds like he's willing to jump in the race, especially after he lost the vote for GOP Conference Chairman. He has $1.5 million in his campaign account.
• Erick Erickson is giving "prayerful consideration" to a Senate run after being approached by "Serious People" about it. Sounds like he'll run.
• It's fairly obvious at this point that Karen Handel is in; she's having her surrogates test the waters in a major way.
• Paul Broun has also left the door open for a Senate run. Graves is another question mark.
• Gingrey, Westmoreland, and Kingston have explicitly said they weren't in.
• The Reverend Doctor Herman Cain is not running.
  
  Also, on the Democratic side, John Barrow has ruled out any possibility of running for statewide office in 2014.
  
  
  It's looking like a very exciting race. Norquist is after Chambliss's head and nobody else really likes him anyway so the Republican Primary for Senate is looking like the headline match. I don't know of any GOP challengers to Nathan Deal (it's looking likely that he'll run for reelection).
  
  I don't know of any Democratic candidates for either race. With Barrow taking his name out of contention, the only people I can think of are Kasim Reed and maaaybe Jason Carter. It's also possible that a former office-holder like Thurbert Baker or Roy Barnes (lol) might try to run again?
  
  

[Bacon King]

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.

[Bacon King]

Excellent analysis nolesfan! And welcome to the forum!

I agree that the state Democratic Party just appears to be in shambles; it's been a decade but it still feels like the party just doesn't know what to do with itself now that it's not eternally in power. I'm hopeful for the future, but it always feels like the party's resurgence is always just one more cycle away.

More funding is essential, of course, but it's a bit hard to get money when you can't get results. Perhaps the party needs a couple of self-funders to run and win (or at least make things genuinely competitive) to prime the pump in that regard. There are tons of big corporations centered in Atlanta- maybe the Democratic Party could get the CEO of a big-name company to run, with a campaigned focused on being a party outsider. Of course, this assumes that the GA Dem's aren't horrible at candidate recruitment, which is yet to be proven.

On that note, a lack of financial support is why candidates like DuBose Porter and David Poythress got nowhere- they barely had enough money to even have a token campaign in the primary. I was an early supporter of Poythress and convinced some of my friends to vote for him, but at the same time I could tell from early on that his campaign wasn't likely to go anywhere.

The thing is, the people you're talking about aren't really getting pushed out of the party, necessarily- the GOP has done it. The 2012 map was absolutely toxic for Democrats in the General Assembly- IIRC there's only like three seats where a white Democrat is representing a majority white district. Everything else is Republican districts or black districts; this caused a ton of damage among what was left of the conservative Democrats in the Assembly.

The party's biggest problem is that we really have no bench. We have no statewide officeholders and our caucus in the legislature is pretty much just Jason Carter, a bunch of African Americans in VRA seats, and a handful of white liberals that'll be replaced by African Americans when they retire. Not saying that black legislators are automatically incapable of running a good statewide campaign, of course, but I doubt that a politician who's never had to appeal to a white constituency will be an easy sell in most of the state.

Don't knock Thurbert Baker, though. He's (sadly) probably the best candidate we have for Senate. It's worth noting that he was a black Attorney General in a southern state for a decade, which is remarkable in itself, and in 2006 he had the best margin of any Democrat statewide. He was even endorsed by a bunch of conservative organizations like the Georgia Sheriff's Association so he's definitely got some credible moderate appeal.

I wish I could do more to volunteer or something but there isn't really a local Democratic Party in my area- which, actually, probably says a lot in itself.

[Bacon King]

Chip Rogers's district is within Tom Price's House seat, for the record. Rogers is in a good position here because he can run for Congress if Price challenges Chambliss, or run for Senate if Price doesn't! He'd easily be the frontrunner for a GA-06 special election, and with his relatively high profile and conservative record in the General Assembly as Majority Leader he'd easily become the Tea Party candidate and Chambliss's main opponent.

Also, LOL in at that PPP poll. Allen West, who doesn't even live in the state, gets double the support of Handel and Price, two candidates who are actually serious about running! Honestly, though, it's far too early in the process for things like this to matter much, before Chambliss's opponents have even had a chance to campaign or boost their name recognition. As far as the Republican primary goes, the only number that really matters is that only 38% of Republicans actually want to keep Chambliss versus a generic "more conservative" alternative. This non-Chambliss majority will be easy pickings for other candidates when they start campaigning. Remember that Price actually has more money than Chambliss in his campaign account right now, and that Handel also has a record of being a strong fundraiser. At this point, I'd even say it's more likely than not that Chambliss loses in the primary.

I suppose the fact that a majority of the GOP would vote for Cain might also be meaningful, if it's enough to persuade the Reverend Doctor Herman Cain to restart the CainTrain Express and run for the seat. We'll see if it does, I guess.

As far as the general election numbers go, though, they are surprisingly very promising! Chambliss and Cleland tied? Barnes six points ahead of Price, and Cleland eight points ahead of him? Granted, it's probably fool's gold, as the crosstabs show that the undecideds in all those matchups skew towards conservatives and Romney voters. Still, it does show that some electoral potential exists.

In regards to fundraising, nolesfan, one would assume that the DSCC would be dropping a lot of money into this race if the polls keep showing this race as competitive in 2014, especially if Chambliss goes down in the primary. Also, I'd imagine a heated Chambliss v. Price v. Handel primary would cause all three to spend a ton of money and go very negative, so the eventual nominee will have a damaged image and much less money than most Republicans would have saved at that point.

Hell, at this point I wouldn't mind seeing Roy Barnes run for this Senate seat, just because he's good at fundraising and would probably clear the field. It'd be nice for a Georgia Democrat to have a financial advantage, not to mention a year-long head start in campaigning for the general election (remember, primary runoffs aren't until August! ).

[Bacon King]

OH YEAH! I had forgotten Chip Rogers and Tommie Williams pulled that coup against the Hall County Boys.

Yeah, no doubt Cagle gets all his authority back, either directly or via proxy: the State Senate leadership is once again firmly in the hands of the Deal/Cagle/Ralston triumvirate that currently commands the GA GOP. It looks like Rogers and Williams both stood down because they could sense the inevitable, while their coup colleague Bill Cowsert resoundingly lost his PPT bid to David Shafer, a staunch Deal/Cagle ally. Nathan Deal's senior floor leader in the Senate, Ronnie Chance, is now Majority Leader, while his other floor leader, Butch Miller (from Hall County itself!), is now Caucus Chairman.

[Bacon King]

^^^ I agree entirely cope. Last year, after the immigration bill first came into effect, South Georgia had a record drought with an unprecedented degree of crop failure, but the labor shortage was so bad farmers STILL didn't have nearly enough manpower available to pick everything before the harvest season ended.

[Bacon King]

Also in the new poll:

• Blacks are more likely to support gay marriage than whites
• Nobody thinks the Falcons need a new stadium, and don't want the government to help pay for it either.
• Tech fans are more liberal than UGA fans.
• Young people in Georgia are extremely polarized. 45% say gay marriage should be legal, but 46% think Georgia should secede because of Obama's election.

[Bacon King]

PPP polls always seem to significantly overestimate black support for Republicans and conservative stuff.

[Bacon King]

SD 11 could be competitive if a white Democrat from Moultrie with a high local profile runs. Besides that (ostensibly distant) possibility, three safe R special elections, it looks like.

[Bacon King]

Definitely not. Any hypothetical Democratic legislative majority would be extremely tenuous at best so there's no chance they'd be able to even try anything controversial.

[Bacon King]

Former Gov. Perdue isn't running. Congressmen Price, Westmoreland, Kingston, Broun, Gingrey, and Graves are apparently all being talked about as potential candidates, as are Lt. Gov. Cagle and Attorney General Sam Olens. Looking like this race might be crowded as all hell.

In other news, the management of the Falcons is threatening a move to Los Angeles if they don't get their new stadium!

[Bacon King]

LOL!

I love the irony that Chip Rogers is getting paid more by the state government than the governor is.

[Bacon King]

Sanford Bishop gets crossover appeal for the same reason that he gets a pass on his corruption problems- he keeps a low profile and stays out of the limelight. That's why he won't run for the Senate and also why he'd lose if he did.

Also, as for Thurbert Baker, I'll let the 2006 map speak for itself

[Bacon King]

SENATE CANDIDATE-WATCH
featuring bonus examples of crazy statements!

Paul Broun has already officially declared. He has said before:

"I was the first Member of Congress to call him a socialist who embraces Marxist-Leninist policies like government control of health care and redistribution of wealth."

"All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the big bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell ... You see, there are a lot of scientific data that I've found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a young Earth. I don't believe that the earth's but about 9,000 years old. I believe it was created in six days as we know them. That's what the Bible says."

Phil Gingrey is also set to enter the race, though he hasn't made an official declaration yet. Quotes:

"[Todd Akin] went on and said that in a situation of rape, of a legitimate rape, a woman's body has a way of shutting down so the pregnancy would not occur. He's partly right on that. I've delivered lots of babies, and I know about these things. It is true."

"Americans are watching as from Iran to North Korea, the forces of darkness are attempting to silence the forces of democracy and freedom. The irony is on this day, the Democratic process and the nation’s economic freedom are under threat not by some rogue state, but in this very chamber in which we stand." (spoken on the floor of the U.S. House in 2009, while debating the proposed rules for debate on a clean energy bill.)

Jack Kingston has confirmed that he will run for Senate.

"I believe I came from God, not from a monkey so the answer is no. ... I don't believe that a creature crawled out of the sea and became a human being one day."

"It is always open season on Christian and on white folks because they are the group you can kick and you can get away with it. It is politically correct."

Tom Price has said he'll make a decision in May, but he's ramping up fundraising and showing plenty of signs he's in the race.

"I’m a big Taylor Swift fan, don't tell anybody. ... I prayed when she started dating a Kennedy that that would end."

(okay, Price is actually pretty good about keeping his quotes within the realm of sanity)

[Bacon King]

Wow, the 2010-2012 change is pretty insane.