Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Could that give the Democrats an opportunity in South Georgia?


Its the Feds fault all the way around. If they had dealt with the issue, none of the states would be doing this.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

What don't you like about his tenure as Mayor? Previous posts on the matter in this thread were rather favorable towards him, though against Deal, anything looks favorable by comparison.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is your family really conservative?
A Nunn victory would be great, Georgia is trending dem so she would be in a better environment 6 years later.

The relatives I refer to are very conservative, yes, but they're not outspoken ideologues or anything. For example, I recall one of my uncles expressing distaste for Paul Broun after he controversially remarked that evolution and the big bang were "lies straight from the pit of hell." He actually completely agreed with what Broun said, but he thought Broun was pandering and "just trying to get people riled up" since, in his view, there's no genuine reason for a politician to address such an obvious truth as if it were something controversial. They're thoughtful people, but the culture down there is very different, leading to a very foreign worldview for me (and probably most of the forum).

Except that it is neither truth, nor obvious and especially amongst the Democratic party, the era of tolerating such opinions is long over since they certainly don't need the state or even these voters to win as long as Atlanta keeps growing. Therefore, they might hate Broun's style and vote against him because of it, but as long as the Democratic Party keeps going the direction that it is going, people with such views will keep voting Republican in federal races because they are the lesser of two evils when it comes to sharing that worldview. The Democrats could change that, but they would have to change their style and the way they look down upon such people in order to do that. Demographic trends discourage that change because the present view is that in four to six years, they won't need them at all to win Georgia.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think BK made an important point about his family and their friends agreeing with Broun but dissapproving of him making it an issue on the evolution thing.

It is not that the Republican nominess in Indiana and Missouri were too conservative, it is that they said stupid things, otherwise they both would be Senators right now. Candidate quality and message discipline matters.

There was a point that substantially Ayotte and O'Donnell had the same positions and save for the differences in the lean of their states, the major reason while Ayotte got 60% and O'Donnell around 40% is because the former was a good candidate and the later was a horrible one. Delaware though is too Democratic to elect a conservative Republican, as a 60% Obama state.

Lack of discipline and gaffe making have a long history though on the GOP side and just as much amongst establishment types as amongst tea partiers.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The National Journal has a look at what Republicans can do to prevent future Akins; there's obviously lots of emphasis on Broun.

I cannot get it to open unfortunately.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Nathan Deal is like the combination of the worst from the right and the worst from the insiders together. The real scandal is that it took this long for a scandal to emerge.

The National Journal has a look at what Republicans can do to prevent future Akins; there's obviously lots of emphasis on Broun.

I cannot get it to open unfortunately.

Thanks to some assistance, I have now read the article. It seems like they don't have a clue what they are doing. The lesson of Indiana is not that a tea partier cannot be trusted, but instead that there is a no way of knowing who is going to screw up ahead of time. That was a statewide elected official. It is not like it was Christine O'Donnel or Sharon Angle where you could tell ahead of time something bad was going to happen. There is no safety to he had in establishment picks or incumbents either. Only someone who was not following politics back in 2006 and 2008 when an establishment gaffe (Conservative, but establishement through and through) could singularly be pointed to as the deciding factor in controlling the Senate with Allen, or with scandal plagued incumbents blowing safe seats like Alaska and Montana with Burns and Stevens. That is not to say that Lugar would have been indicted or made a gaffe. However, if he were to win and Romney as well, the possibiliy of IN Class I being open in Romney's potential sixth year in office would certainly be a concern long term that could be avoided with a younger incumbent.

It is like a mindless herd, but those who thing they can stave off disaster by running to Tillis got another thing coming. That is like running to Rick Berg, only worse, to save you from Christine O'Donnell. I also find it odd that they aren't eve sure who the evul Akin candidate is in NC. They select Harris because of Amendment I and his ties to it.

Jumping back into the arms of what destroyed the party before is not going to save it from what is destroying it now. At the end of the day regardless of tea party or establishment, the scucess or failure is determined by candidate quality. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Your Indiana argument is invalid because 1) I could have easily told you that Mourdock would blow the seat - I argued he would lose it for us throughout the primary campaign, and 2) Lugar would not have served out the full term had he been reelected. Not to take away from your overall argument, though.

Mourdock wasn't a solid bet, but also not a "substantial" risk. Hell Pence wasn't even solid for Governor in the end. But there was no indication that he would be a substantial risk of the like of a Christine O'Donnell, which was my point. Mourdock had it in my opinion until the abortion gaffe, despite the polls, which I recall was tied.

I agree with you on that point about Lugar not serving out the full term but it must be considered that 1) many may not have known that was the case and 2) he may have ended up deciding to stay the full term.

The point in general, the one you acknowlege though is you really cannot tell. Lugar would have won as the nominee, but incumbents aren't always safe as people tire of certain politicians, they get corrupted or have the mouth problem like any other candidate new or old. Santorum's two terms, Allen's Gubernatorial service, Stevens numerous terms and Burns three terms didn't save them from scandal/foot in mouth.

I think the best thing in the article is opposition research on the likely candidates. With that you don't know who will forgive what like Noem's driving record versus on the other hand the Buck phone tape. My concern is that Rove is likely going to spend millions of dollars getting nominated a bunch of Nathan Deals and we are going to lose just as many seats as we have because of candidate incompetence as we have since 2006. Only difference is that it will be corrution instead of gaffes or it might even be gaffes still.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Did Handel get at least an okay showing this time?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

dumping cash into advertisments? ISn't he a self-funder?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Of course the Grimes Campaign will troll the GA primaries, that is obvious .

And Nunn the KY primary?


Genius Hitchcock type strategy. Swap primaries, no motive.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would say that Perdue/Kingston/Handel are about equal between all there gaffes and such with Perdue's money giving him the edge electability wise, but we have seen that backfire before.

Gingrey comes next simple because he did win such a sprawling district that was suppose to elect a Democrat in 2002. Of course that was a long time ago. Otherwise he would be equal with Broun in this score.

I have no confidence at all in Broun save for the lean of the state adn the year to carry him over and pray to god, he doesn't say something stupid. His district was always all in the NE part of the state and thus doesn't have the slight leg up electability wise that Gingrey has.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Maybe they should pass out the weed after the ballots have been turned in, rather then "including it on the ballot".

They probably got hungry and left before filling it out.

We still expecting Handel to do well in Atlanta Metro or is going to be more dispersed with all the talk of her lack of education hasn't hurt her none?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

BTW - why? Bigger Republicanization among Black Belt whites (like those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana) or demographic changes?

One big reason could be people moving to Atlanta metro. I imagine the job prospects are better.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why is a runoff a guaranteed loss?

They have historically lost them. One of the major reasons would be African-American turnout dropping off post general election.