Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[old timey villain]

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

[old timey villain]

Price and Woodal's districts are way too Republican than they should be. They have a growing minority population and a ton of soft Republicans who vote GOP but are fine with things like gay marriage. A pro business Democrat, maybe a CEO, who possesses an air of independence on economic issues while holding the party line on social issues could certainly give Price a run for his money in the affluent 6th district, although I'm not sure he or she could win- just give the GOP a good scare.

Another thing that caught my eye. Obama lost Georgia by 300K votes. Which is a lot, but I can almost guarantee you that there are at least 300,000 or more Democratic leaning minorities out there (blacks, hispanics, asians) who could close the gap if they just bothered to register and vote in elections. Maybe making Georgia competitive isn't just about winning over moderates, maybe it's more about activating the fast growing minority population.

I have another question for you guys about the game plan: Should the Democratic Party here in GA try to fuse a coalition between minorities, Atlanta, and moderate suburbanites as we have seen in places like Virginia (NoVa) or should they try to appeal again to white voters in rural Georgia?

On the one hand, the moderate suburbs could be low hanging fruit if the Democrats here made a play. They're probably most likely to be turned off by the antiquated social views of the GOP. We've seen the same plan work in Northern Virginia and the Research Triangle. Many suburban areas of Atlanta are just as affluent and well educated so it makes some sense.
   
On the other hand, the Georgia GOP is increasingly becoming dominated by tea party types in the suburbs and exurbs (the "no new taxes EVER" crowd). Perhaps Democrats could convince rural voters that the Georgia GOP isn't taking care of their needs anymore. It seems to me like these voters in poorer areas are actually fine with activist government if they think it benefits them- one of the reasons Sanford Bishop does so well and John Barrow held on to his seat this year.

Whaddya think?

[old timey villain]

The GA GOP is also having an identity battle between the rural and suburban Republicans, and the ones who are socially based or economically based. Romney Republicans vs. Santorum Republicans basically and on some issues like immigration, they have sided with the suburban Republicans over the rural ones.

With the immigration bill, they ticked off a lot of otherwise socially and economically conservative farmers who relied on the cheap labor undocumented immigrants provided, in favor of the suburban Republicans who were hollering about "benefits" and stuff.

Do you think a lot of what you said here (rural vs. suburban split) can be applied next door to the Alabama GOP?  

Alabama doesn't have as many suburban Republicans, since it's a largely rural state. The only largely suburban area that packs some punch would be Shelby County, a bedroom community for Birmingham. But that group pales in comparison to rural conservatives.  By and large, Alabama Republicans are likely to stay united in the future because they're much more dominated by rural interests.

[old timey villain]

Also, regarding the rural/conservative split in Georgia- the next Democratic nominee for governor or senate needs to make an issue of the immigration law, but paint it in economic terms instead of social. Someone mentioned this earlier, but there are a lot of rural GOPers who really don't like it.

I was working for my college news station last year and I was assigned to do a story about the economic impact of the law. We drove about 20 minutes out of Athens and went to a pine straw business. We walked in, there were bucks heads mounted on the walls, the TV was set to Fox News and the owner came out dressed head to toe in camo.

He then told us that he was a hardcore Republican but absolutely hates the law. He told us that a few weeks prior, INS came to the pine forest where his workers were harvesting straw and rounded up about 10 of his illegal immigrant employees and immediately deported them and told him he had to call the workers' families and inform them of the deportations. Not only did he mention the financial loss but he also got emotional when he talked about making those calls. He was pissed, and I'm sure a lot of people like him still are.

[old timey villain]

and "Official Senate bid announcement from Paul Broun has been scheduled Wednesday 4pm at the Grand Hyatt in ATL"

This is all happening too quickly.

Kasim Reed bows out of Senate race

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http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/

I have to ask, did he really say "I just focused on being mayor" or is that a typo?

[old timey villain]

and "Official Senate bid announcement from Paul Broun has been scheduled Wednesday 4pm at the Grand Hyatt in ATL"

This is all happening too quickly.

Kasim Reed bows out of Senate race

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http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/

I don't wanna seem racist, but we can't win with a Black Candidate.

Oh, I agree with you, but people here will probably think it sounds racist. Somebody on this forum chided me for ignoring Thurbert Baker's win in 2006, but he's an exception to the rule. In an extremely racially polarized state like Georgia, you can count on enough black people voting for a white guy but you absolutely cannot count on white people to vote for a black guy. It's just the way it is around here.

I think it's a longshot for any dem to win, but a white democrat has a much better shot, as is the case in most states. There aren't that many Barack Obama's around.

[old timey villain]

The one notable exception is Sanford Bishop, who routinely gets a large chunk of the white vote in the most racially polarized area of the state. I wonder why nobody is asking him to run...

[old timey villain]

The one notable exception is Sanford Bishop, who routinely gets a large chunk of the white vote in the most racially polarized area of the state. I wonder why nobody is asking him to run...

he's from downstate GA where corruption is not necessarily a liability. In a statewide race, his supposed corruption would be fully on display.

I'm not saying he would win, I'm just saying that he's a Georgia democrat who gets a lot of crossover support from white conservatives.

Also, corruption isn't much of a liability in the rest of the state either, seeing as how Deal would have had to answer to ethics violations in congress had he not resigned to run for governor. But of course he's a Republican so most Georgians just looked the other way on that.

[old timey villain]

I don't see a scenario in which Deal loses in 2014. He hasn't really done anything to piss off the GOP base or mobilize Democrats. It might be close but he pulls it out fairly easily. 2018 will be interesting though.

[old timey villain]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

[old timey villain]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I didn't realize high tech and research=Democratic.

Hmm really? It seems like most of the areas that have seen big growth in tech and research jobs have trended Dem, like Silicon Valley and the research triangle.

[old timey villain]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

Deal will definitely not get 10% of the black vote. He'll be lucky to get 5%

[old timey villain]

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional/is-gov-deal-vulnerable-in-2014-election-hunt/nWjx4/

Is Nathan Deal vulnerable? Never say never, but probably not.

[old timey villain]

Are there any non-crazy Republicans running for the nomination for this Senate seat?

Considering how strong the Georgia GOP is, they must have some people that are more reasonable than Broun.

People are saying Karen Handel might run. She was Georgia's secretary of state and lost the GOP primary for Governor in 2010. Honestly, she's about as conservative on most issues as the rest of them, but she cultivated a more moderate image by campaigning against the "gool ol boy" network in the governor's race, thus winning a lot of the wealthy suburbs that are less socon. It all depends on what her campaign focuses on- she could be the moderate alternative to Gingrey and Broun if she keeps up the "gool ol boy" shtick and focuses more on fiscal responsibility. But if she builds her campaign around her almost fanatical opposition to abortion (see Susan G Komen scandal) then she could come across as another Sharron Angle.

[old timey villain]

Are there any non-crazy Republicans running for the nomination for this Senate seat?

Considering how strong the Georgia GOP is, they must have some people that are more reasonable than Broun.

People are saying Karen Handel might run. She was Georgia's secretary of state and lost the GOP primary for Governor in 2010. Honestly, she's about as conservative on most issues as the rest of them, but she cultivated a more moderate image by campaigning against the "gool ol boy" network in the governor's race, thus winning a lot of the wealthy suburbs that are less socon. It all depends on what her campaign focuses on- she could be the moderate alternative to Gingrey and Broun if she keeps up the "gool ol boy" shtick and focuses more on fiscal responsibility. But if she builds her campaign around her almost fanatical opposition to abortion (see Susan G Komen scandal) then she could come across as another Sharron Angle.

So it is possible to envision a scenario where Broun and Gingrey splits the very conservative/Tea Party vote, and allows Handel to win? Because I think there probably are a lot of conservative minded people in Georgia that want to vote for a Republican, that don’t want to vote for Broun or Gingrey. If Handel can seem like a reasonable (and intelligent) candidate, she might win simply by being the only option for a lot of these voters.
I have a question about Barrow. Because he seems like the best candidate the Democrats can field next year. What sort of opposition do you think he will meet in the primary?

Yes it's possible but keep in mind that in Georgia primaries if a candidate doesn't win a majority then there's a runoff between the top two finishers. It happened in 2010. Nathan Deal and several others split the very conservative vote while Handel won with a plurality, but in the runoff Deal beat Handel and went on to win the election, probably because the majority of Republicans in the state are the very conservative type and liked Deal more than Handel. So that could definitely happen again, especially since Republicans here keep getting more and more conservative. Of course that's what I'm hoping will happen.

As far as Barrow goes, there's talk of other Dems entering the race but most don't seem to have the same clout as him. Sam Nunn's daughter is apparently in talks to run but she has very little name recognition. There are a lot of black democrats in GA who may run as well, and they could stand a chance although black democrats don't do well in statewide races lately for obvious reasons. I'm really hoping Barrow wins the primary though, should he choose to run. He knows what it takes to win and I think he could pull it out.

[old timey villain]

Heitcamp was an extremely charismatic and folksy candidate who ran a stellar campaign based on relating to the average North Dakotan, and she still only won by a few thousand votes. I just don't know enough about Elizabeth Nunn. She doesn't have any political baggage but is she likeable and in touch with the average Georgian, especially those white blue collar folks we need to win? I'll have to find out more about her but I'm still placing my bets on John Barrow- he knows what it takes to win.

[old timey villain]

Haven't we had minority and women candidates running in midterm years in this state? And did they ever win or come close to winning??

John Barrow is really dumb, for real.

[old timey villain]

Ya know, I keep hearing this theory that Nunn could win if her eventual Republican opponent veers too far to the right, but I just don't know.

It's plausible since that has happened recently in senate races in Missouri, Indiana, Nevada and Delaware. But when people say "too far to the right" I wonder according to whom? This is Georgia, a state I love but I'm also fully aware of how people think here. Most Republicans will vote for the nominee no matter what they say, and they'll probably agree with them on everything, and they'll probably dig their heels into the ground even more every time a journalist labels them "far right." That's a good thing in the Georgia GOP.

I think the whole reason the Republicans took over here is because the GA Dems could no longer hold those far right views and still get support from the national party, so the Republicans took their place. Sam Nunn, for example, was totally against Clinton's DADT policy. His daughter can't be nearly as conservative on gay rights if she expects to call herself a Democrat.

And really, who are these supposed conservatives who might vote for Nunn? Aren't they the target audience for all this right wing lunacy in the first place? Most of those people haven't voted Democrat in 20 years and I don't think they're about to start now, when the two parties are more ideologically polarized than ever.

[old timey villain]

That ice cream poll is almost too good to be true! Didn't PPP release a poll a few months ago claiming that only about 27% of Georgians supported legalizing ice cream? I doubt that many people jumped on the ice cream bandwagon in such a short time. I wonder which poll is more accurate.

[old timey villain]

Guys if Deal gets arrested what do you think would happen?

BK, what does your family think about Jason Carter?

Not sure, but I'll ask at Thanksgiving

I wasn't aware that a resignation was a possibility. What is it exactly that he's being accused of?

[old timey villain]

Interesting poll. What's weird is that Deal has positive approvals but a majority also want a new governor?

[old timey villain]

Interesting poll. What's weird is that Deal has positive approvals but a majority also want a new governor?

I imagine the discrepancy would have to be the ones who are Republican but think Deal is somewhat of a RINO. They're not going to outright admit that they disapprove of him, but would love someone else from the Tea Wing to be Governor.

But in the end they'll vote for him as the Republican nominee. Sorry, but I'm not getting my hopes up for this race yet.

[old timey villain]

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/medical-marijuana-bill-on-its-way/nc4Dt/?icmp=ajc_internallink_textlink_homepage

A bill legalizing medical marijuana is on its way to the floor of the Georgia general assembly. Rep. Allen Peake (R) of Macon is introducing the bill.

As much as I loathe the Republican dominance here in Georgia, the Republicans do seem to be listening to public opinion when it comes to increasing tolerance of mind altering substances. First they vote to allow alcohol purchases on Sunday, catapulting Georgia into the 20th century, and now medical marijuana. It probably helps that recent polls show most georgians firmly in support of this. Now on to complete legalization, but I doubt they would ever go that far.

Could these laissez faire policies help statewide Republicans with young Georgians who aren't totally devoted to the GOP?

[old timey villain]

Could there be much political fallout from the snowstorm? 63% in Atlanta disapprove of Deal's handling of it.

at first I didn't think so but the coverage has been brutal and it looks like the Georgia Democratic Party is looking to pounce. It definitely won't be issue #1 during the fall campaign but it has the potential to cost Deal some votes, especially in metro Atlanta.

[old timey villain]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/05/sprawled-out-in-atlanta-106500.html#.U2z0ua1dU9V

A great expose on suburban poverty in Cobb County. The article isn't directly related to the races this year but it sheds light on a new dynamic in metro Atlanta that could affect the upcoming elections.