Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[smoltchanov]

So, Democrats win Atlanta area (more and more) and sort of Black Belt going from south-west part of the state to central-east. Plus Savannah. And almost nothing more?

[smoltchanov]

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

BTW - why? Bigger Republicanization among Black Belt whites (like those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana) or demographic changes?

[smoltchanov]

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

BTW - why? Bigger Republicanization among Black Belt whites (like those in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana) or demographic changes?

One big reason could be people moving to Atlanta metro. I imagine the job prospects are better.

May be. Plausible hypothesis

[smoltchanov]

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...

[smoltchanov]

I am under the impression, perhaps falsely, that Abrams wants to be the first Black woman elected President. She's certainly an inspirational figure, but it seems that she would be better off waiting a couple more cycles. Still, we need fewer old white men running the helm. I wish her well.

I am absolutely color-blind. The only criterion i use: "who is the most qualified candidate?. Who has best chances to win?" If he/she is Black - run him/her! If it's brown,  yellow or "old white man" - run him. I don't care about color of skin.... No preferences by that... Absolutely....

[smoltchanov]

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...

Oh I'm simply pointing out that black Democrats have won statewide offices in Georgia many times.

Absolutely, but only wanted to say that i seldom see signs of above mentioned "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition now. Mostly because white Southerners (especially - in rural areas, of which there is still a lot in the South) began to vote Republican with percentages approaching Black's percentages for Democrats. The whole geographic regions changed their voting habits in the last 10 years. The best example i have is not from Georgia, but Louisiana: Acadiana refused to go for Strom Thurmond and "defend segregation" as early as in 1948, when most of the state did. It refused to go for Barry Goldwater in 1964, while most of Louisiana did. It elected mostly Democrats to state legislature as late as 2007 (and most of them still serve because a term limit is 3 4-year terms). But beginning 2009-10 it swung to the right. When present day Democratic (and - mostly white) legislators retire in 2019 - it will be at least 2/3 (and may be, 3/4) Republican delegation (on congressional level Democrats are almost irrelevant already in this region). And this is not an isolated example....

[smoltchanov]

I am under the impression, perhaps falsely, that Abrams wants to be the first Black woman elected President. She's certainly an inspirational figure, but it seems that she would be better off waiting a couple more cycles. Still, we need fewer old white men running the helm. I wish her well.

I am absolutely color-blind. The only criterion i use: "who is the most qualified candidate?. Who has best chances to win?" If he/she is Black - run him/her! If it's brown,  yellow or "old white man" - run him. I don't care about color of skin.... No preferences by that... Absolutely....

I know you're not an American, but use of the phrase "color-blind" usually indicates racism in the States.

I know that, but could never understand it, even while i was in US. May be i am "too Russian" by mentality, but my relatives in US are exactly like me, even after almost 30 years in US, and long - with American citizenship. "Color-blind" is an anthonim to racism. It's when color of skin becomes too important for a person (when he or she starts to speak about "this is a white/Black/Hispanic/ Asian legislative seat" and similar issues) then racism comes to play. As i already said - qualification is the only thing that matters for me.... For me a Black politicians in Memphis who attacked Steve Cohen for winning "a Black seat" there in late 1990th, were as racist as David Duke. And while "Black lives", undoubtely, matter, "white lives" matter too. And so on (BTW, this is a position of majority in Russia, and by far - THE most liberal position here, because those, who don't share it (about 1/5 of population by my estimate), may be rightfully called racists in Duke's mold... There is no such thing as "political correctness" in Russia).

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, thanks! Still - i can assure you that i am 101% for equality. Of ALL races. Just against any privileges for anyone (be they white, black, male, female, straight, gay, lesbian, and so on). That's a context i use these words in: skin color doesn't matter at all when i communicate with people. Behavoir and qualifications do. And i am very well aware that there are white drug users and thugs, and Black Nobel prize winners)))

[smoltchanov]

9 candidates and all - rather serious? Date of election?

[smoltchanov]

9 candidates and all - rather serious? Date of election?

not until November 7th!

Thanks! That can wait for a while in my own calendar)))

[smoltchanov]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

As far as i understand - because she is a Black liberal from Atlanta in polarized age...

[smoltchanov]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

"Black, ATL, female", in that order.

They've elected Karen Handel to a statewide position or are we specifically talking about the position of Georgia's Governor?

She is white conservative Republican. You can elect such women statewide in Georgia. But "black liberal Democrat from Atlanta" in addition to woman - that never happened AFAIK, and (IMHO, of course) isn't very likely to happen in the near future. Eventually - yes, but i doubt that i will survive to see it.

[smoltchanov]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

"Black, ATL, female", in that order.

They've elected Karen Handel to a statewide position or are we specifically talking about the position of Georgia's Governor?

She is white conservative Republican. You can elect such women statewide in Georgia. But "black liberal Democrat from Atlanta" in addition to woman - that never happened AFAIK, and (IMHO, of course) isn't very likely to happen in the near future. Eventually - yes, but i doubt that i will survive to see it.

Unless you die before 2030, I wouldn't be surprised to see it by then.

I will be 73 by 2030 Election Day, so - who knows?

[smoltchanov]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

"Black, ATL, female", in that order.

They've elected Karen Handel to a statewide position or are we specifically talking about the position of Georgia's Governor?

She is white conservative Republican. You can elect such women statewide in Georgia. But "black liberal Democrat from Atlanta" in addition to woman - that never happened AFAIK, and (IMHO, of course) isn't very likely to happen in the near future. Eventually - yes, but i doubt that i will survive to see it.

That's tragic.

Why does it seem like black women can't get elected governor anywhere?

It's not easy even for white women (count number of women governors right now), and for black men (count). double difficult - for black women...

[smoltchanov]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

"Black, ATL, female", in that order.

They've elected Karen Handel to a statewide position or are we specifically talking about the position of Georgia's Governor?

She is white conservative Republican. You can elect such women statewide in Georgia. But "black liberal Democrat from Atlanta" in addition to woman - that never happened AFAIK, and (IMHO, of course) isn't very likely to happen in the near future. Eventually - yes, but i doubt that i will survive to see it.

That's tragic.

Why does it seem like black women can't get elected governor anywhere?

Because despite everyone claiming to be color blind, hardly anyone really is.

That's mostly true. I have a weird theory that one of the strongest reasons for rapid conversion of most southern whites to Republican party in post-civil rights era was thinking along following lines:

"We are law-abiding citizens, and fought for "our segregated South" valiantly. We did all we could to preserve it. Now, with all that Supreme Court decisions and Congressional legislation, our possibilities are almost nil. But we may still have our last revenge against treacherous party, whuch claimed to be "our", but - betrayed us on every occasion. We don't want to be in a party, which is flooded now with "these Blacks". Let's go to real party of "states rights", where there are few Blacks BTW. Let's do everything possible against that damned integrationists and white-haters. That will be our revenge and our "safe harbor""

P.S. And i fear that way of thinking is still relevant for considerable number of people.... May be - not only in the South.. Despite all sweet talk about "change" and "progress". Human minds change slowly, and old habits are very resilient...

P.S. 2 IMHO - racism (and not only white one, BTW) didn't go anywhere. It went "underground". Few people will openly speak today (as it was in 1940th-1960th) about "race superiority", "Black Monday's", and use "famous" n-word. But in their souls - ......

P.S. 3 It's happening throughout the world in a reverse way too. Just this week i spoke with white South Africa woman, now residing in Russia. She admires Nelson Mandela, calling him "the best". He was a person who almost singlehandedly (because of enormous respect and authority he had) prevented very possible (look at neighbouring Zimbabve) persecution and may be - even bloodbath of whites in the country. But her opinion about present President Zuma is "the worst", and her feeling - "country rapidly goes downhill now".

[smoltchanov]

The Battle of the Staceys commences: Stacey Evans announces her bid for Governor.

Which Stacey is better?

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! But Evans is white. And that will matter too, one way or another..

[smoltchanov]

Abrams endorsed by Emily's List.

BTW, why? AFAIK - Evans is pro-choice too...

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

Who do you think is most likely to win the General... Abrams or whoever wins the Repub primary... or does it differ depending on who win wins the runoff?

Also- do you think the Lt Gov election will have the same outcome as the Governor's race (regarding which party wins)?

Without "Todd Akin" blunders - Republicans in both races. I expect Georgia to elect Democrats again statewide by 2026, but - not now.

[smoltchanov]

I think Dems certainly have chances earlier than 2026.  FWIW- The only polling data I can really find... had Abrams ahead of Kemp and mixed results vs Cagle ( or maybe Abrams ahead of Cagle & mixed vs Kemp ... can remember as I do not know much about political scene in GA)

I know that. Still - count me skeptical. 45% - sure, 47 - quite possible, 50%+1 - i don't see that. Especially with Democratic candidate being Black liberal woman.

P.S. For me it's still Lean R, but i would like to err very much and see first Black governor of Deep South state in many years (and, BTW, an absolutely impossible thing when i began to study Southern politics about year 1971). But - it surely won't be easy task.