Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

and "Official Senate bid announcement from Paul Broun has been scheduled Wednesday 4pm at the Grand Hyatt in ATL"

This is all happening too quickly.

Kasim Reed bows out of Senate race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/

I don't wanna seem racist, but we can't win with a Black Candidate.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Are there any non-crazy Republicans running for the nomination for this Senate seat?

Considering how strong the Georgia GOP is, they must have some people that are more reasonable than Broun.

People are saying Karen Handel might run. She was Georgia's secretary of state and lost the GOP primary for Governor in 2010. Honestly, she's about as conservative on most issues as the rest of them, but she cultivated a more moderate image by campaigning against the "gool ol boy" network in the governor's race, thus winning a lot of the wealthy suburbs that are less socon. It all depends on what her campaign focuses on- she could be the moderate alternative to Gingrey and Broun if she keeps up the "gool ol boy" shtick and focuses more on fiscal responsibility. But if she builds her campaign around her almost fanatical opposition to abortion (see Susan G Komen scandal) then she could come across as another Sharron Angle.

So it is possible to envision a scenario where Broun and Gingrey splits the very conservative/Tea Party vote, and allows Handel to win? Because I think there probably are a lot of conservative minded people in Georgia that want to vote for a Republican, that don’t want to vote for Broun or Gingrey. If Handel can seem like a reasonable (and intelligent) candidate, she might win simply by being the only option for a lot of these voters.
I have a question about Barrow. Because he seems like the best candidate the Democrats can field next year. What sort of opposition do you think he will meet in the primary?

Yes it's possible but keep in mind that in Georgia primaries if a candidate doesn't win a majority then there's a runoff between the top two finishers. It happened in 2010. Nathan Deal and several others split the very conservative vote while Handel won with a plurality, but in the runoff Deal beat Handel and went on to win the election, probably because the majority of Republicans in the state are the very conservative type and liked Deal more than Handel. So that could definitely happen again, especially since Republicans here keep getting more and more conservative. Of course that's what I'm hoping will happen.

As far as Barrow goes, there's talk of other Dems entering the race but most don't seem to have the same clout as him. Sam Nunn's daughter is apparently in talks to run but she has very little name recognition. There are a lot of black democrats in GA who may run as well, and they could stand a chance although black democrats don't do well in statewide races lately for obvious reasons. I'm really hoping Barrow wins the primary though, should he choose to run. He knows what it takes to win and I think he could pull it out.

I don't know. Michelle Nunn is starting to sound really good, and she doesn't have the unfavorables that Barrow has. That's why Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, and others were able to win in 2012. People liked them. I believe Barrow is underwater statewide. Democrats could go in early and define Nunn as a moderate in the mold of her father and other red-state Dems.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

State Rep. Scott Holcomb apparently thinking about running for either Gov. Or Senate, but it sounds like he leaning more towards Senate.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/blogs/hotlineoncall/2013/05/holcomb-considering-ga-senate-gubernatorial-bids-01

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Damn you John Barrow. We needed that seat.
Can Michelle Nunn win? Maybe Scott Holcomb?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Better Georgia poll: Jason Carter viable for Gubernatorial run

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://bettergeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Voters-Concerns-Over-Cronyism-Corruption-Threaten-Deals-Re-Election-Hopes.pdf

I'd prefer Carter here. Though Holcombe would be good too. Minority candidates are a no-no though. Sorry Stacey.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Handel's in.

What is it that people see in her that makes her such an awesome candidate?  She has minimal electoral experience and was tied to a huge and unnecessary controversy at Komen.  I just don't see what the buzz is about.

She's a female republican

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

THIS JUST IN FROM NEWNAN, GA - DUBOSE PORTER WINS DPG CHAIR ELECTION ON SECOND BALLOT

A lot of deals were made last-minute - Doug Stoner seemed like a shoe-in based on chatter throughout the state cmte members going into this.

Who is Dubose Porter?  And what do you think of him?  Do you think he can position the GA Democratic Party in the medium-long term to take over the state? 

From what I know, he's a great fundraiser.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/07/your-daily-jolt-jimmy-carters-grandson-tests-water/


State Sen. Jason Carter looks like he is testing the waters for a run against Deal.

Well, that's a done Deal.

Seriously though, I don't know much about Carter, but he seems a lot more savvy than his grandfather. Hopefully he can do well.

I'm not overly optimistic. Carter has never polled well in hypothetical gubernatorial match-ups; even though he has name recognition, not many people recognize his full name (if that makes sense).

Also, glorious news!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/oct/08/michelle-nunn-raises-17-million-us-senate-campaign/

Are you rooting for Nunn?

Adam's a Democrat. There are no actual R-GA's on the forum.

Also, she'll need a large war chest. Atlanta's pretty expensive to advertise in, but the rest of the state isn't that much.

Jason Carter is only known by 23% of the population according to the last PPP Poll back in August. 71% of Democrats, and 80% of Independents have no idea who he is. He's down 48/33, but that's with him only getting 68% of Democrats and Deal getting 85% of Republicans.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

20/20 Insight just called and polled about Carter!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

R Senate primary poll. Perdue leads...with 13%.

No. He can't be the nominee. Doesn't his lead directly contradict with every other public poll?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Ok, I checked the methodology. They only tested Republican voters. Georgia has an open primary, so Democrats, Republicans, and Independents can vote in it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

R Senate primary poll. Perdue leads...with 13%.

No. He can't be the nominee. Doesn't his lead directly contradict with every other public poll?

Why can't he? Am I missing something here?

Because it makes no sense for him to jump 7 or so points in a single poll.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Georgians are looking at another Republican sweep of statewide offices in November, though we've got several Democrats holding judicial statewide offices in both the Georgia Supreme Court and GA Court of Criminal Appeals.

Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle (R) appears poised to win reelection to 3rd term, which would position him for the governorship in 2018 .

No they're not. The most important race (Gubernatorial) is in play.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Sabato talking about possible runoffs: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-2014-07-16/

If Carter and Nunn forced the election into a runoff, there will have to be two runoffs: Dec. 2 for gubernatorial runoff and Jan. 6 for senate runoff.

Since runoff favors Republican, this would not be an ideal scenario.

Anyway, can Carter and Nunn each win a runoff?

It's not likely. Each need to beat the Republican by 3 or more to avoid a run-off (counting likely Libertarian share of the vote). The Republicans knew what they were doing when they redid the election calendar this year: moving the primary from July to May (to screw Broun) and separating the state/federal general runoffs (to screw Carter/Nunn). We can't even get our voters out for one runoff; look at the difference between the 2008 Senate general and general runoffs for proof. There's more ground game in Georgia right now than in 2008, but I still don't believe it'd be anywhere near enough to win in a runoff scenario. We have to bury the Republicans in November or bust.

So they don't need to crack 50, just to beat their opponents by say a 48-45-7 margin?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Quick question guys. I turn 18 on the 15th of November, which is about a week after the General Election. If I register to vote, am I allowed to vote in the run-offs?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

How close did Carter get in 2014, which was a strong Republican year with a heavily GOP senate race also on the ballot?

He lost 52-44

Oh. And it looks like he actually underperformed Michelle Nunn. Lovely

Well Carter was running against an incumbent while Nunn was running for an open seat.

A highly unpopular incumbent with ratings deep underwater.

Deal wasn't highly unpopular, he was highly unknown. It's just the few people that did care enough to know him didn't like him.

And if Carter runs again I'll work my ass off to win this seat for the Democrats.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Stacey Abrams is in:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/02/georgia-2018-abrams-files-paperwork-to-run-for-governor/

She doesn't need to win the primary. A black can't win statewide in Georgia, at least not yet. The Democrat would need to crack 30% of the white vote. Abrams can't do that.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

As far as i understand - because she is a Black liberal from Atlanta in polarized age...

Can she win as a Republican?

Depends on if she made it through a primary and if her opponent reverse-Southern Stategy'd her.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If Evans jumped in, that points to Carter sitting this race out. And that's sad because he's head and shoulders above Abrams as a candidate, and I feel would have beaten her in a primary. I'm not so sure about Evans.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Stacey Abrams (who is ridiculously far left--- and I'm sorry but she's a black woman)

lol

You're laughing but he's right. Georgia isn't going to elect Stacey Abrams in 2018.  She might be able to pull Obama-level support among blacks, but the very best she can hope for is to also reach his level of support among whites. Which isn't near enough to get the 50+1 to avoid a runoff.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Why is Jason Carter sitting this cycle out? I would've thought that he'd run for a row office.

Yeah he really made a bad choice. National Democrats might be excited for Abrams, but no one in the state that’s actually heard of her, likes her. And Evans is just so bland, we’re blowing a winnable race.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Bacon King, Griffin and any other Georgians: how optimistic are you about 2018?

We kinda blew the Gov. race by running meh candidates in Abrams/Evans. With Jason Carter we’d be looking at a toss-up. Downballot we’ve also failed to recruit good candidates for Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General. But Barrow has a pretty good chance at Secretary of State, which would benefit the party in the long-term with that position’s power over elections.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

You can’t win just by maximizing black turnout. The math isn’t there. I literally wrote a 21 page research paper on the subject last year for a class. And that’s what Abrams’ entire campaign strategy is based around. You need Obama level turnout among voters PLUS at least 30 or 31% of white voters.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

Nothing will get those “demoralized” Republicans fired up to vote like the chance to beat a black woman in an election.

Pretty much why I don't think Abrams can win -  she can't keep the educated whites in the North Suburbs that swung hard to Clinton. Abrams probably keeps the South/Inner suburban gains, since those are more driven off of minority voters. Evans probably comes close to Clinton in all regards, but doesn't match her.

As has been stated by others here, many times, Abrams's core message of her campaign is that she is a Black Women. Sure, she will win the primary fine, and sure she has adopted many Dem party planks. But her core theme isn't the right one for a electorate ~59% white and >30% AA.

That was my point as well. Abrams’ entire campaign is based around identity politics and national support. Evans has been focused on more local issues. Neither candidate is good. Democrats really blew this race when candidates like Holcomb and Carter passed.

Abrams might fire *some* black people up with here “I’m a black woman” message. But it’ll cancelled out by the votes of still prejudiced white voters in rural GA and the sizable portion of black voters who also know that running a black candidate is a sure fire way to lose.