2016 presidential election -- winning party

[© tweed]

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[CLARENCE 2015!]

Democrats- the map is in their favor, I believe an economic recovery will be taking place, and HIllary will be unstoppable...

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Republicans, as the economy won't be recovering and the GOP will be shifting more towards the center to appeal to Independent voters.

[Blue3]

Republicans, as the economy won't be recovering and the GOP will be shifting more towards the center to appeal to Independent voters.

But as even FOX News admitted... Democrats don't even need to win Independents anymore. I think Obama lost Independents, and if he didn't, he still didn't need them to win.

[Maxwell]

Hillary will not run, the Dems might nominate a hack like O'Malley, while the GOP will most probably nominate Christie or Rubio, who will almost certainly win. Either that, or Dems nominate Cuomo, and Green's get the best performance ever and Some slightly weaker Republican wins.

[NHI]

Really early to say. I'd give the edge to the Democrats now, but it all depends who the Republicans nominate.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

This question relies on the very uncertain assumption that America will still exist in four years.

[/Romney hack]

Honestly, it really depends how the Republicans treat this opportunity. They can become more of a centrist party and possibly realign the map, or they can tack to the right and secure their position as losers for another two or three cycles.

Honestly, last night's message was pretty clear. It takes a special kind of Republican leadership to screw it up... Unfortunately, that's exactly what we've got.

In related news, Martinez is now pretty much the best possible candidate the GOP could put forward. So I'm a little happy.

[Frodo]

Republican by default, but that depends entirely on what nominee they choose.  If they go the Jim DeMint/Paul Ryan or Rick Santorum route (i.e. opting for principles over pragmatism), it will be yet another lost opportunity for them.  

[milhouse24]

Whichever party has a Hispanic on the ticket.  Probably the Republicans since they have Martinez, Rubio, and Jeb. 

[traininthedistance]

Well, it probably depends on the economy more than anything.

But if we continue to have four years of steady but slow growth, as I think somewhat likely, then it depends on the candidates.  Republicans win if they nominate Christie or Rubio, Democrats win if they nominate anybody else.  UNLESS the Dems nominate Hillary, who will beat all comers, except that she won't run.

[limac333]

I voted Republicans, just because of Democratic hangover after 8 years of Obama.

[5280]

I voted Republicans, just because of Democratic hangover after 8 years of Obama.

There was GOP hangover for 12 years 1980-1992.

[auburntiger]

It will depend if they can solve the demographic problem! So that means they will be needing a minority on the ticket. I was surprised that VA had gone Obama more than OH despite all the polling all season, which means VA is the hinge point. Having McDonnell on the ticket would be a good idea...I think. HAve Martinez or Rubio, and you now have a strong ticket for '16.

[5280]

The minority Republican will have to be smart, charismatic (no more Romney/McCain moderates), explain everything and be tough.  No more being mister nice guy.

[Comrade Funk]

The minority Republican will have to be smart, charismatic (no more Romney/McCain moderates), explain everything and be tough.  No more being mister nice guy.

Yep, no more moderates. GREAT IDEA.

[5280]

The minority Republican will have to be smart, charismatic (no more Romney/McCain moderates), explain everything and be tough.  No more being mister nice guy.

Yep, no more moderates. GREAT IDEA.

And I hope Obama's 2nd term is worse than his 1st term.  The guy is not worthy as my president.

[Ichabod]

The minority Republican will have to be smart, charismatic (no more Romney/McCain moderates), explain everything and be tough.  No more being mister nice guy.

Republicans have not been nice since maybe Ford and Rockefeller so that part is easy. Are you sure that the Republicans need to "explain everything"? Because when the Republicans say their views, they start to lose votes and seats.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The minority Republican will have to be smart, charismatic (no more Romney/McCain moderates), explain everything and be tough.  No more being mister nice guy.

Yep, no more moderates. GREAT IDEA.

And I hope Obama's 2nd term is worse than his 1st term.  The guy is not worthy as my president.

Yeah dude, going far right really went well for y'all didn't it.

[Eraserhead]

Tough call. I voted "Republican". It should be their turn.

But the whole demographics issue isn't likely to get any better for them before then, so it's a very tough call indeed...

[BlueSwan]

The three main arguments for a GOP win:

a) Ever so often people want something new. In most western countries it seems that it is tough for any party to stay in power for much more than 10 years. The conservative wave of the 80's and early 90's in the US, UK and Germany was an exception to this rule.

b) The economy could well still be in the sh**tter. Europe is likely to go into recession yet again in 2013 and this might also affect the US, especially if Greece and/or others finally go bankrupt. In 2016 there will be no blaming Bush anymore.

c) The GOP will learn from their mistakes and run someone with appeal to minorities, maybe Rubio or Jindal.

The three main arguments for a Dem win:
a) Dems now have a huge inbuilt electoral college advantage, where the GOP needs a decisive PV win to have any hope of winning the EV.

b) The demographics favouring dems will continue to gain strength going forward.

c) The economy will be much better in 2016 and the Obama administration will reap the benefits.

My own prediction is the same as it always is four years in advance = who the hell knows.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

And I hope Obama's 2nd term is worse than his 1st term.  The guy is not worthy as my president.

What an awful post. Shame on you for wishing that America gets worse just so you can get some kind of sick satisfaction at Obama's expense. I'm not an Obama supporter by any stretch of the imagination, but I would never purposefully wish for things to get worse just so my political party could win the Presidency. Anyone who does so needs to sit down and sort out their life, because that's just plain wrong.

[BlueSwan]

And I hope Obama's 2nd term is worse than his 1st term.  The guy is not worthy as my president.

What an awful post. Shame on you for wishing that America gets worse just so you can get some kind of sick satisfaction at Obama's expense. I'm not an Obama supporter by any stretch of the imagination, but I would never purposefully wish for things to get worse just so my political party could win the Presidency. Anyone who does so needs to sit down and sort out their life, because that's just plain wrong.

Yes. Rush Limbaugh also said something about how he hoped that Obama would fail back in 2008.

And yet it is people like them who dare to call others "unpatriotic". Go figure.

[auburntiger]

The minority Republican will have to be smart, charismatic (no more Romney/McCain moderates), explain everything and be tough.  No more being mister nice guy.

Yep, no more moderates. GREAT IDEA.

And I hope Obama's 2nd term is worse than his 1st term.  The guy is not worthy as my president.

This kind of hatred is exactly why republicans lose. I voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney; they're great Americans. I believe that Romney would have been a great president, had he been given the opportunity. Unfortunately, he only got 48% of the vote and fell short in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio; similar to John Kerry in 2004. The American majority has spoken. Please stop being hateful towards one individual. The republicans and conservatism will come back. People were talking the same about the democrats in 1990 and in 2004. Heck, people were even entertaining the idea of a permanent GOP senate majority back in '04. Everything goes in cycles, my friend.

[limac333]

I voted Republicans, just because of Democratic hangover after 8 years of Obama.

There was GOP hangover for 12 years 1980-1992.

I'm not saying a Democrat can't win, especially since we don't know who is running, and what is going on in the world in 4 years, but if I had to bet a dollar on it today I think a Republican would have a slightly better shot.

[Chartist]

The Republicans will have to win 4 states (OH, VA, FL, CO) that haven't voted R for 12 years, when three of them are trending Democratic. If the economy is good enough, it won't be a contest.