The 2016 Elections: Return to Relevance

[CountryRoads]

OK, I've been reading timelines on Atlas for awhile since I joined and decided to finally make one! I'm still saddened by election results, so this may be tilted towards republican somewhat. (But it won't be hackish I promise )


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Prelude:

The Second term of Barack Obama's Presidency had been just as mixed as his first. The economy has not recovered yet, but hasn't worsened. Unemployment has been fixated between 7.8% and 8.2% for most of 2013, and 2014. The Deficit increased by another $2.1 trillion dollars as of December 31st 2014.

Before we get into 2014, it should be documented and known that Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) won re-election in 2013 49%-46% against Mayor Cory Booker (D-NJ). While in Virginia, Former U.S. Senator, and Former Governor George Allen (R-VA) was finally able to win statewide office again by winning in an upset against former U.S. Congressman Glenn Nye (D-VA) 51% to 46%.

However, the United States had finally gotten a firm grasp of the situation in Afghanistan, and officially pulled out most of it's forces by April 17th 2014. President Obama has been lauded as one of the most successful Democratic Presidents on foreign policy by many in Washington. There was still a strong presence of terrorism in many regions of the country, however.

Though, the seemingly stable Afghan government claimed that "Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and any other potential terror threat in our nation will be dealt with appropriately, and swiftly."

Iraq also started to see signs of permanent stabilization. Leaders on the American left claim that this is "another foreign policy victory for the President" while many in the media, the middle, and on the right give credit to Former President George W. Bush.

As stated before, even though the President has become very polished, and strong on foreign policy, his domestic policies were nowhere near as successful...or praised. Obamacare took effect in 2014, and has so far been looked upon as a failure by the country as a whole. Many Americans found that the quality of their healthcare has declined substantially.

The struggles of Obamacare eventually would become a motivating factor for Republicans in the 2014 Midterm elections.

By this time, Reince Priebus was no longer GOP Chair, and Lilly Nuñez has replaced him. This was the first of many attempts by the GOP to widen it's appeal to Hispanic, and Latino voters. The GOP also backed off somewhat on it's harsh immigration stances. In fact, the issue of illegal immigration has disappeared completely from either major party's platforms. Though, the issue was still very prevalent in border states like Arizona, and Texas.

Hispanic and Latino republicans such as U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL), Ted Cruz (R-TX), Governors Susanna Martinez (R-NM), and Brian Sandoval (R-NV) have become some of the many faces of the Republican Party. Republicans also (for the most part) have ended any attempts to make English the national language.

Polls showed a decent increase in Hispanics/Latinos identifying as Republicans. However, Democrats still had a large registration edge:

Hispanics/Latinos identifying as Democrats: 57%
Hispanics/Latinos identifying as Republicans: 33%
Hispanics/Latinos identifying as Independents/Other/Undecided: 10%

(Alright, I'll stop here for now. Tell me what you guys think. My next post will be more about Obama's 2nd term, and the 2014 midterm elections.)

[tmthforu94]

I really like it - it seems fairly realistic.

[CountryRoads]

Thanks!

[Reaganfan]

Keep going

[NHI]

Looks good.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Good so far.

[CountryRoads]

Throughout 2014 many political leaders announced their retirements from politics. Including some whose seats weren't up until 2016. The most important retirement came on June 19th 2014:

" I have served as Senator for Arizona for 27 years, as of this year,  and I have enjoyed every second, minute, and hour of it. But, there comes a point in every person's life when they just know it's time to step down. My friends, I am here to announce that I will not be seeking re-election in 2016."
 - U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ)

RNC Sources claim that the Senator informed them of this decision early on in 2013. They also claim that McCain wanted to announce his retirement well before the 2016 election so that the GOP could have time to find an appropriate candidate.

Here is a list of other political leaders who announced their retirements:
This does NOT include term limited Governors!

Senators:
U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) (Seat is up in 2014)
U.S. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) (Seat is up in 2014) *
U.S. Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) (Seat is up in 2014)
U.S. Sen.  Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) (Seat is up in 2014)
U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) (Seat is up in 2014)

* Warner's retirement further fuels 2016 presidential ambitions.

Governors:
Gov. Tom Corbett (R-PA) (Seat is up in 2014) *
Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) (Seat is up in 2014)  **

* Corbett's approvals have NOT recovered from fall out of PSU Child Abuse Scandal, and faced potential primary opponent.
** Gov. Perry was originally going to seek another term, but health concerns forced him to bow out of politics.

U.S. Congressmen/women:
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN-06) *
Rep. Howard Coble (R-NC-06)
Rep. Spencer Bauchus (R-AL-06)
Rep. & Fmr Speaker/ Fmr Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-08)
Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL-09) **
Rep. & Fmr Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD-05)

* Retires to run for Governor. Later decides to end campaign, and just retires.
** Retires to run for Governor
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Election Day, 2014:

Approvals for President/Vice President:

President Obama:
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 48%
Undecided/Not Sure: 4%

Vice President Biden:
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 49%
Undecided/Not Sure: 11%

Do you think America is heading in the right direction in terms of the economy?
No: 58%
Yes: 31%
Not Sure: 11%

What do you think of the Obama Administration's handling of Foreign Policy?
I have Positive Opinion: 54%
I have Negative Opinion: 38%
Undecided/Not Sure: 8%

Approvals for Congress:
Disapprove: 64%
Approve: 29%
Undecided/Not Sure: 7%

The Results of the Midterms are coming up next...


(Thanks for the comments everyone!)

[CountryRoads]

2014 Midterm Election Results:

U.S. House of Representatives:
Republicans: 240
Democrats: 195

The Republicans will retain their Majority in the U.S. House!

U.S. Senate:
Democrats: 52 (Net Loss of 3)   (5 Losses, 2 Pick-up's) *
Republicans: 48 (Net Gain of 3) (5 pick-up's, 2 Losses)

Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate!

* Maine U.S. Senator Angus King (I-ME) caucuses with the Democrats.

90% Color = Pick-up
40% Color = Open Hold
30% Color = Incumbent Hold

There are numerous interesting races here, let's start with the Democratic Pick ups:

Kentucky:
Former Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) went down in flames  to Governor Steve Beshear (D-KY) 56% to 39%. Numerous corruption allegations stemming back to early 2013 had haunted the Senator. He was forced to resign as Minority Leader earlier in 2014 due to new allegations of misconduct (Lamar Alexander took over as Leader)...except, this time it involved a woman he reportedly attempted to seduce into sleeping with him. This seemed to be the "nail on the coffin" but things got worse for the embattled Senator.

3 weeks before the election, he made this statement on a local Kentucky Newscast:

"Look, the Senate Democrats and President Obama are in trouble. There isn't a Hurricane Sandy to save their asses this time around."

As expected, this comment caused a national controversy, and sealed the fate of the former Minority Leader.

Georgia:
U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) was the only republican incumbent in real trouble this time around. (Not counting Scandal-ridden Senator McConnell). He was already unpopular and was trailing "Generic Democrat." This pushed Former Governor Roy Barnes (D-GA) into announcing a run for Senator.

Barnes was easily able to tie Chambliss to corrupt, and unpopular Governor Nathan Deal (R-GA) and this was a HUGE factor in the final result. It also doesn't help that the Senator called Deal "one of the greatest Governors in American history." Barnes most famous moment came in a debate where he attacked Chambliss as a "chickenhawk."

Barnes won 54% to 44%.

Now, for the GOP Pick-Ups:

Virginia:
VA Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R-VA) decided against running for Governor against George Allen in 2013, and switched races. His opponent in this Senate race was Former U.S. Congressman Tom Perriello (D-VA). The race was extremely nasty, and extremely close. Cuccinelli won the negativity war as he was able to paint Perriello as a far-left extreme Democrat. "He is no Tim Kaine, no Mark Warner, and no Jim Webb." said the Attorney General at a debate.

Cuccinelli won 50% to 48%.

Montana:

Former U.S. Congressman Denny Rehberg (R-MT) suffered a close, tight loss to Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in 2012, and planned to retire into the Sunset. However, longtime Democratic Senator Max Baucus announced his retirement in early 2013 and Rehberg decided to give it another go.

He was easily elected, 57% to 40% over 2012 Congressional nominee  Kim Gillan (D-MT).

Louisiana:

U.S. Congressman Bill Cassidy (R-LA) pulled off a stunning 50%-47% upset over longtime Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA). The Democratic Senator had been in tough races before, but it seems like Louisiana is no longer anywhere near winnable for even entrenched Democrats like her.

South Dakota:

Let's leave no doubt...U.S. Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) is still EXTREMELY popular in South Dakota. However, he has been in Washington for a very longtime, and his health had been a lingering issue for years.

It was the perfect storm for U.S. Congresswoman Kristi Noem (R-SD) to pull off a 47% to 46% upset. It was a very positive campaign overall. Noem, who had been known for being a lazy congresswoman in her first term was anything but lazy in her second term. There was no room for Johnson to attack her. She also made a somewhat surprising statement at a campaign stop in Sioux Falls:

"Look, I could only dream of being as great of a Senator as Tim Johnson has been for South Dakota. Heck, I voted for him in 2008. But, every great legend needs to step down for leadership eventually."


Alaska:

She's baaaaaaaaaack! That's right Former Governor & 2008 GOP VP Nominee Sarah Palin (R-AK) has returned to elected office. She beat off U.S. Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) by a tiny 49% to 48% margin. Will the Tea Party darling be a force to be reckoned within the Senate?

Lastly, let's look at some close/other interesting races:

North Carolina:

U.S. Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) is returning to Washington after winning in a recount over NC House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-NC). The final result was 48.32% for Hagan, and 48.25% for Tillis.

Hagan will continue to serve the "First in Flight" state after surviving very heavy turbulence!


South Carolina:

What a year for the Carolinas! South Carolina had a very odd year. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) was stunned in the GOP Primary by U.S. Congressman Mick Mulvaney (R-SC) 53% to 41%.

Mulvaney then faced a somewhat close general election race against State Senator Vincent Sheheen (D-SC).  Sheheen was able to get black voters out to the polls, but it wasn't enough to pick off the Seat. Mulvaney won 54% to 44%.

Tennessee:

U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander (R-TN) announced his retirement. This led to a very crowded, and competitive GOP Primary.

U.S. Congresswoman Diane Black (R-TN) came out on top with roughly 47% of the GOP primary vote. She then beat out Ben Bredesen, the son of former Governor Phil Bredesen in a razor thin 49%-46% win.

Massachusetts:

John Kerry (D-MA) became Secretary of State in mid-2013. Former Congressman John Olver (D-MA) was appointed as a placeholder by Governor Deval Patrick(and won the special election). Patrick then would run and win in the November 2014 election. That's how it was supposed to go.

Instead, Patrick lost in the primary to U.S. Congressman Frank Keating (D-MA). This occurred due to fears that either Scott Brown, or Richard Tisei could beat Patrick. But Brown ran for Governor, and Tisei would run in MA-06 again. But, by this point Keating bruised up Patrick big time in the primary, and won. Keating would beat a no-name republican 64% to 34%.


Oklahoma, and New Jersey were both open seats but were not competitive. Former Congressman Steve Rothman (D-NJ) won 59% to become New Jersey's new senator, and in Oklahoma Former Congressman J.C. Watts (R-OK) became Oklahoma's first black senator. He won 61% of the vote.

The rest of the seats were retained by the very same people who won them in 2008.

Next, the Gubernatorial results of 2014...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This is awesome! Very fair, and very realistic. Keep it up!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Sarah Palin 2016!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Looks great so far! Looking forward to the gubernatorial results in particular!

Hope Bachmann doesn't retire from politics in real life, as your timeline might suggest.

[CountryRoads]

Thanks for the comments everyone my next update will be up in 15 mins or so.

[Spamage]

This is really good!

[tmthforu94]

Surprised Rockefeller ran for reelection, considering his anti-coal statements.

[CountryRoads]

2014 Gubernatorial Results:

90% Color = Pick-up
40% Color = Open Hold
30% Color = Incumbent Hold

Republicans: 30 (No Change) (3 Gains, 3 Losses)
Democrats:   20 (No Change) (3 Gains, 3 Losses)
Independent: 0 (Net Loss of 1)

Starting off with Democratic Gains:

Pennsylvania:
Gov. Tom Corbett (R-PA) announced he wouldn't seek another term due to horrific approvals (34-56) in relation to the PSU Child Abuse scandal. The economy was in shambles aswell, and the PA GOP was left for dead by Corbett.

Former U.S. Congressman Joe Sestak (D-PA) easily won his party's nomination, and easily defeated GOP Nominee, Tom Smith (R-PA). He won 57% to 40%.

Georgia:
Governor Nathan Deal's (R-GA)  corruption issues are well documented. The GA GOP didn't even bother trying to salvage this race. U.S. Congressman John Barrow (D-GA) absolutely demolished Deal by 16% margin (55% to 39%).

Florida:
Governor Rick Scott (R-FL) was just as corrupt, and unpopular as Deal. Lucky for him though this one was competitive due to the fact that the Democrats had an extremely divisive primary between Charlie Crist (D-FL), Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Kendrick Meeks (D-FL). Crist won the nomination with 42%, and went on to beat Rick Scott by a stunningly narrow margin: 51% to 44%.


Republicans also had some gains:

Arkansas:
U.S. Congressman Steve Womack (R-AR) stunned former Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D-AR) 55% to 44%. He will be replacing Gov. Beebe (D-AR).

Massachusetts:
THE Massachusetts Republican is back! Former U.S. Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) won the GOP Nomination unopposed, and went on to beat Boston Celtics co-owner, and Bain Capital managing partner Stephen Pagliuca (D-MA) 51% to 47%.

Rhode Island:
Governor Lincoln Chafee (I-RI)  went down in a heated three way race. He finished in third place behind  Patrick C. Lynch (D-RI), and Governor-Elect John Robitaille (R-RI). Robitaille won 36% to Lynch's 33%, and Chafee's 31%.

Here's other interesting races:


Texas:
Governor Rick Perry (R-TX) will not be governor of Texas come January for the first time in 14 years. Many still can't believe it. But, it's true, health issues forced the Governor to retire.

Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott (R-TX) easily won the GOP nomination and cruised to a 58% to 38% victory over Ricardo Sanchez (D-TX).

Kansas:
Governor Sam Brownback (R-KS) is NOT the same man he was in the Senate. Horrible approvals led to him being primaried out of office by U.S. Congressman Tim Huelskamp (R-KS). Huelskamp won the general election 58% to 40% against Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon (D-KS).

Nebraska:
Lt. Governor Rick Sheehy (R-NE) won 64% of the vote against a no-name opponent to succeed Governor Heineman (R-NE).

Arizona:
U.S. Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ) won a crowded GOP Primary  by 2%. However, he performed much better in the general against Former Mayor of Tempe, Neil Giuliano (D-AZ). Winning to 53% to the 44% of the former Mayor.

Maryland:
MD Attorney General Doug Gansler (D-MD) won 56% to 41% against Former RNC Chair Michael Steele (R-MD) after trailing for about 2 months.

The rest of the seats were retained by the same people who won in 2010.

[CountryRoads]

Thanks Spamage!

And Tmthforu, I was actually considering having him retire or lose, but since I'm a WV Republican it'd look overly bias lol, plus he's still popular here.

[CountryRoads]

It's 2015: The 2016 Campaign is about to get underway!

Now that the Midterm elections have ended, the nation will turn it's eyes to the 2016 presidential race. There are many questions being asked: "Will the GOP return to glory, or are they done for?" "will Hillary run?" "will Biden, or Bush run?" etc...

Before we get to that though, we will post the leadership of Congress first:

House:
Speaker: John Boehner (R-OH-08)
Majority Leader: Eric Cantor (R-VA-07)
Majority Whip: Paul Ryan (R-WI-01)

Minority Leader: Chris Van Hollen (D-MD-08)
Minority Whip: James Clyburn (D-SC-06)

Senate:
Majority Leader: Harry Reid (D-NV)
Majority Whip: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

Minority Leader: John Cornyn (R-TX)
Minority Whip:  Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Well, no one knows for sure yet on who will run, but FOX News has released a list of potential GOP contenders, and a list of potential Democratic contenders:

We will start off with the incumbent party:

Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)
Former Secretary of State, U.S. Senator, and First Lady Hillary R. Clinton (D-NY)
Former U.S. Senator, and Former Governor Mark Warner (D-VA)
Former Governor Brian Schweitzer (D-MT)
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
U.S. Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC)
U.S. Congressman Jim Matheson (D-UT)
Governor Jay Nixon (D-MO) *
Senate Majority Whip Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
Former U.S. Congressman, 2014 Democratic Nominee for Governor Alan Grayson (D-FL)
Governor Mark Dayton (D-MN)


* FOX claims that they have sources claiming that Nixon will run, but also claims that these sources haven't been confirmed at this time.

Now, onto the Republicans:

Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)
Former Governor Bob McDonnell (R-VA) *
Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Governor Susanna Martinez (R-NM)
Senate Minority Whip Marco Rubio (R-FL)
U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Former U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (R-MN)
Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)
Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA)
Governor Bill Haslam (R-TN)
Governor Scott Walker (R-WI)
House Majority Whip Paul Ryan (R-WI)
Governor George Allen (R-VA)
Governor John Kasich (R-OH)
U.S. Senator Richard Burr (R-NC)
Governor Mike Pence (R-IN)


* McDonnell reportedly planning to announce exploratory committee soon. FOX reports that the Former Governor has been planning to run since he left office in 2014. 

[CountryRoads]

Jan. 26th 2015: Former Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell (R-VA) has officially announced that he will be forgoing an exploratory committee, and will be running for President.

Analysis: This is big news. The republican base loves McDonnell, but no one could have predicted that he'd be a presidential candidate before the aftermath of the 2014 midterm elections. He could be a major player in the 2016 GOP Primaries.


Feb. 12th 2015: The first Democratic candidate has risen up! Governor Jay Nixon (D-MO) is officially running for President!

Analysis: Well, this is interesting. Nixon is very popular in Missouri, and FOX had reported that he was gearing up for a run. However, he is not very well known among national democratic voters, so his impact will not be known for awhile.

Feb. 14th 2015: Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will NOT run for President in 2016. In an interview on MSNBC she claimed that "the door has firmly, and permanently closed" for her to ever run for office again.

Analysis: Well, this is HUGE as it blows the Democratic field wide open. Don't be shocked to see many Democrats  randomly announcing runs.

Feb. 16th 2015: U.S. Senate Majority Whip Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) also will not be running in 2016. "My priorities right now do not match up with ones that are needed to run for president."

March 10th 2015: Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) announces that he will run for President in 2016.

Analysis: Well, we all had a feeling this would happen since even before election day 2012. He'll definitely shake up the race for President.

March 18th 2015: Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM) announced, in english and spanish, that she would be running for President.

Analysis: This is a pretty big announcement. Republican elites have to be at least a small bit happy about this. Shows diversity in the GOP.

April 5th 2015: Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is in it to win! The New York Governor is running for President!

Analysis: The first MAJOR Democrat to announce a presidential run (no offense to Jay Nixon!). This is huge news, and he will definitely shake things up.

Up next, more announcements and first primary polls...

[Svensson]

Okay, you've seriously got a good one going here. Keep it up.

[CountryRoads]

Okay, you've seriously got a good one going here. Keep it up.

Thanks!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Rand Paul 2016!

[Niemeyerite]

Ugh. I hope some progressive democrat runs.

Nice so far

[CountryRoads]

Ugh. I hope some progressive democrat runs.

Nice so far

Thanks! and trust me, more people will run

[CountryRoads]

April 25th 2015: Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) announced his intentions to run for President today in Denver.

Analysis: This could be a big announcement. Hickenlooper is from a swing state, and has done well with hispanics. He seems like the most progressive/liberal Democrat in the race at this point.

May 1st 2015: Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) WILL run for President in 2016! It's official!

Analysis: This may be the biggest announcement on both sides. Biden will be a contender early on, but will his FiM syndrome (foot in mouth) ruin him in the end?

May 4th 2015: Governor Bill Haslam (R-TN) will be running for President in 2016.

Analysis: Well, look out America! Mr. Fancy pants is running for President! I think we found the Mitt Romney of 2016! Let's see if he'll be more sucessful then Mitt!

May 9th 2015: Former Governor, and Former U.S. Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) is running for President!

Analysis: He denied any interest in 2008, and he looked disillusioned with politics when he "retired" in 2014, but he's not done yet. Mark Warner is running for President. Another candidate from the left from a key swing state, Virginia.

May 16th 2015: U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is running for President!

Analysis: The King of the Tea Party is in! His campaign will be fueled by strong grassroots support. Will that type of campaign win in the GOP? Is he electable?

May 17th 2015: U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) will be running for President! Only the second female candidate (only Democratic one) in this race thus far!

Analysis: That's the look of a winner right there! But, can, and will she be the one woman to break the glass ceiling and win her party's nomination? (along with Gov. Martinez on the GOP side potentially)

May 20th 2015: Former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) just gave every GOP contender a heart attack: He's running for President!

Analysis: Wow, did anyone actually think he'd run?!? Well, he is! And this primary may not be as close as we thought it'd be.

May 21st 2015: U.S. Senate Minority Whip Marco Rubio (R-FL) will NOT run for President, and proudly endorses Jeb Bush. "He is the answer we are looking for America! Join me in supporting Gov. Bush for President!"

June 1st 2015: U.S. Senator Kay Hagan (D-NC) is running for President!

Analysis: A nicer gal couldn't run if she tried! I think this is a great edition to the 2016 race! But, she is relatively unknown outside of North Carolina, so she may struggle in the polls.

June 13th 2015: Retiring Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) announced today that he will indeed be seeking the office of the Presidency.

Analysis: Another strong candidate running for President! it's going to be a long, long primary season for both parties!

On an interesting note, the Democratic primary is much, much older then it typically is. I believe only Sen. Cantwell is under 60 years old.

Along with polls, FOX News will also be launching "EndorsementWatch" and YOU can see who endorses who!

That will wrap up all the announcements for President, the very first primary polls will be coming up next...

[America™]

No Huntsman or Clinton? That's disappointing.

Cuomo 2016!