The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

New WaPo survey:

41-56 disapprove

http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/11/19/National-Politics/Polling/question_12477.xml?uuid=dFWkolDXEeOe5iWACG2CVA

In before Bandit sees a conspiracy ("the polls must all be wrong") ...

For the record, this poll (like several others) actually shows Obamacare to be more popular than Obama. So there has to be some other reason besides Obamacare why Obama's numbers aren't as good as they were.

But not how he handled it:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

34% approve
64% disapprove

[pbrower2a]

November 15-17, 2013
Survey of 952 Montana voters

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MT_111913.pdf


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

President Obama has been in worse political shape. From a now-retired thread:

Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« Reply #5754 on: August 17, 2010, 11:28:51 am »


badtimeforobamaapprovalaug2010

Key:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

The color scheme is different, but you get the idea.

[Tender Branson]

Obama drops and drops ...

CBS poll: 37% approve, 57% disapprove

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57613067/poll-obamacare-support-obama-approval-sink-to-new-lows

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama drops and drops ...

CBS poll: 37% approve, 57% disapprove

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57613067/poll-obamacare-support-obama-approval-sink-to-new-lows

Seven points worse than on Rasmussen?

[The Vorlon]

Obama drops and drops ...

CBS poll: 37% approve, 57% disapprove

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57613067/poll-obamacare-support-obama-approval-sink-to-new-lows

Wow - minus 20 in a CBS poll.... Ra^ther interesting..

The word Schadenfreude keeps coming to mind....

That being said, at some point in the 2nd term a President can decouple from the party as a whole on polling (as Bush II did)

During the first term, job approval is a darn good proxy for "Are you gonna vote for the guy again?" - in the second term, this obvioulsy does not apply.

Issues like being honest and trustworthy have taken a  hit, but not yet to critical levels.

"assuming" no other major shoes drop, I think this is a standing 8 count, but not a knockout moment.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, this CBS poll had Obamacare at minus 30, while other polls have it between minus 10 and minus 20.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

According to the internals for the CBS poll, they interviewed 281 Republicans, 299 Democrats, and 430 others. That's a mighty GOP-leaning sample.

[The Vorlon]

According to the internals for the CBS poll, they interviewed 281 Republicans, 299 Democrats, and 430 others. That's a mighty GOP-leaning sample.

They weighed that sample back to

23.7% GOP,
29.3 Democrat
48.0% Independant.

+5.6 to the Dem side is "reasonable" IMHO, especially with so many independants, The variousl polling firms handle party ID so very differently that poll to poll comparisons tend not to have a lot of actual value.

The party ID question has never worked really well, and it works even less well right now with both parties being held in contempt by the electorate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

According to the internals for the CBS poll, they interviewed 281 Republicans, 299 Democrats, and 430 others. That's a mighty GOP-leaning sample.

They weighed that sample back to

23.7% GOP,
29.3 Democrat
48.0% Independant.

That's still way off.

This is borne out by the fact that even in Rasmussen, he's not doing nearly that bad.

But this is the same CBS that produced that discredited Benghazi report a few weeks back, so who's surprised?

[The Vorlon]

One poll is, well... one poll....

I still like the "old school" rule on polls... toss out the high and the low and average the rest.....

CBS News                       37   57    -20
Gallup                               40   53    -13
Rasmussen Reports               43   56    -13
The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
ABC News/Wash Post          41   56    -15
FOX News                       40   55    -15
Quinnipiac                       39   54    -15
National Journal               38   55    -17
Pew Research                       39   56    -17



The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
ABC News/Wash Post          41   56    -15
FOX News                       40   55    -15
Gallup                               40   53    -13
Quinnipiac                       39   54    -15
National Journal               38   55    -17
Pew Research                       39   56    -17
Average                               39.9     55.0  -15.1

Average what is left an Job approval is about 40 / 55 or so

[The Vorlon]

But this is the same CBS that produced that discredited Benghazi report a few weeks back, so who's surprised?

Remember when CBS had a news division?

[jaichind]

According to the internals for the CBS poll, they interviewed 281 Republicans, 299 Democrats, and 430 others. That's a mighty GOP-leaning sample.

One thing I found intesting about this poll (and other polls shows something similar as well) is that while approval of Congressional GOP is lower than Congressional Dem, the level of independent approaval for both GOP and Dem are about the same.  The main reason for the gap between GOP and Dem congressional approval is GOP identifiers approve of the Congressional GOP less than Dem identifiers approve of Congressional Dem.  If the levels were the same then the overall apporval of Congressional GOP would only be 1 point less than overall approval of Congressional Dem.  I suspect even GOP supporters disapprovers of the Congressional GOP have negative enough opinion of Obama that they will still come out to vote GOP in 2014.  In which case Dem comfort that GOP Congressional approval being low will help them is really not going to come true in 2014.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One thing I found intesting about this poll (and other polls shows something similar as well) is that while approval of Congressional GOP is lower than Congressional Dem, the level of independent approaval for both GOP and Dem are about the same.

Independent isn't the same as moderate.

[pbrower2a]

Florida voters disapprove 57 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, matching his all-time worst score, a 57 - 39 percent disapproval, in a September 22, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Mercyhurst University - OHIO:

Q.1 To begin, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Approve 33%
Disapprove 59%

http://www.mercyhurst.edu/~/media/MCAP%20Media/MCAP%20Poll%20Ohio%20N2013.ashx

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is this all because of a bloody glitchy website?

[Badger]

Is this all because of a bloody glitchy website?

And policy cancellation notices (caveats in the debate noted).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is this all because of a bloody glitchy website?

If this really caused his numbers to drop, then people really don't deserve to even have a government.

[Tender Branson]

NC (Elon):

37-54

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/NovemberPoll2013_Report.pdf

[Franzl]

There really is a massive double standard in approvals for Democrats and Republicans. It's amazing. The Republican crazies can almost be willing to bankrupt the country....the Democrats botched a website and people with health insurance that isn't worth the paper it's printed on can't keep it.....and now the parties are tied again.

That makes perfect sense, America.

[tmthforu94]

I am sure it has more to do with reports of premiums rising + folks having their current plan cancelled.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I am sure it has more to do with reports of premiums rising + folks having their current plan cancelled.

Except that none of this really happened - except to the folks who had junk insurance and had to buy real insurance.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Your car is garbage. The state will destroy it in a few months. You can either buy one that's more expensive or make up for your indiscretion by paying a new, ridiculous tax.

Sorry, but that's what we're dealing with. "None of this really happened, except for" is not a very inclusive statement. The people who are losing their plans form a pretty big group. They were lied to. They were told everything would be okay because the sympathetic government would manage everything fairly and responsibly. Now people are seeing for themselves that the government can't be trusted to make good on its basic promises, let alone actually run things with any kind of efficiency. Obama's numbers aren't sinking because of a botched website rollout; they're sinking because this whole situation has nurtured growing distrust in big government.