The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Obama's numbers aren't sinking because of a botched website rollout; they're sinking because this whole situation has nurtured growing distrust in big government.

They were sinking because The Media stinks.

Past few days though, they've gone back up.

[Tender Branson]

New York goes negative on Obama:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1983

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/


Really awful when one considers that this is his home state. This is consistent with a 40% approval rate nationwide.


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If this were a year before the election then one could expect the Republican nominee to win about a 40-state landslide. 



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If this were a year before the election then one could expect the Republican nominee to win about a 40-state landslide.

Well, no, because the Republicans would actually have to campaign.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He's back up to 46% again on Rasmussen. For a Democrat, that's not exactly a losing formula.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Another interesting little tidbit: Respondents in the Illinois poll said they voted for Obama by 9. Actually he won the state by 17. So they greatly oversampled Republicans.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Another interesting little tidbit: Respondents in the Illinois poll said they voted for Obama by 9. Actually he won the state by 17. So they greatly oversampled Republicans.

Or people don't want to admit they voted for Obama.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Or people don't want to admit they voted for Obama.

I wouldn't be ashamed to admit it. Especially with the smooth rollout of Obamacare.

[pbrower2a]

If this were a year before the election then one could expect the Republican nominee to win about a 40-state landslide.

Well, no, because the Republicans would actually have to campaign.

Pennsylvania was close to being the tipping-point state. Incumbent Governors and Senators on the average gain 6%  from approval rating to the vote share in a binary election. President Obama would lose roughly 51-49 as an average campaigner against an average challenger in Pennsylvania... and he would have to win the state by about 2% to have a reasonable chance of winning reelection.

That said,

He's back up to 46% again on Rasmussen. For a Democrat, that's not exactly a losing formula.

   

That translates to a 52% vote share nationwide based on the "6% gain rule". 
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

[Bandit3 the Worker]

That translates to a 52% vote share nationwide based on the "6% gain rule". 
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

So he'd win with a greater percentage than he did in 2012?

[pbrower2a]

That translates to a 52% vote share nationwide based on the "6% gain rule". 
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

So he'd win with a greater percentage than he did in 2012?

I'd need some corroboration on that poll, as it is an outlier. President Obama got about 52% of the share of votes cast for him or Romney, which is good enough for me.

... Many people were convinced that when the President's approval rating was 47% or so last winter that he was going to lose. What those people ignored was that

(1) President Obama was going to campaign
(2) opponents could make catcalls about him with impunity and drag his approval ratings down -- but once the campaign began in earnest those people were obliged to come up with alternatives... or lose.
(3) President Obama is an effective campaigner.

No pol looks effective when he is on the defensive even for something trivial. Given a scale of 1 (a fashion failure like mismatched shoes) and 10 (being caught on tape committing a crime) this website glitch is something like a "2". Get him off the defensive and his approval ratings will show it.   

 

[Tender Branson]

OH:

President Barack Obama's job approval rating among Ohio voters is a negative 34 - 61 percent, his lowest score in any Quinnipiac University poll nationally or in any state, according to a poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

...

Also, pbrower, you need to change NY to aqua.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Quinnipiac is such an outlier that I don't even know why we take it at face value here. Remember how bad all their Colorado polls were?

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah Obama having 61% disapproval in Ohio is insane.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

So basically what Bandit has been saying in this thread is that every poll is wrong.

Kay.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah Obama having 61% disapproval in Ohio is insane.

I live near Cincinnati, and from the way people have been talking lately, I think maybe they disapprove because he isn't liberal enough.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, a new nationwide poll says 54% think Obamacare is either just right or not liberal enough:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/27/cnnorc-poll-are-obamacares-flaws-fixable

I think Obama is actually losing support from the left.

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac is such an outlier that I don't even know why we take it at face value here. Remember how bad all their Colorado polls were?

The Mercyhurst poll in OH has shown the same, that Obama's approvals there are in the dumpster.

But keep on ignoring the facts ...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Mercyhurst poll in OH has shown the same, that Obama's approvals there are in the dumpster.

But keep on ignoring the facts ...

Mercyhurst??? We're going by Mercyhurst??

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Also, a new nationwide poll says 54% think Obamacare is either just right or not liberal enough:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/27/cnnorc-poll-are-obamacares-flaws-fixable

I think Obama is actually losing support from the left.

41% think the Republican-crafted health care plan is too liberal.  That's just scary.

[pbrower2a]

OH:

President Barack Obama's job approval rating among Ohio voters is a negative 34 - 61 percent, his lowest score in any Quinnipiac University poll nationally or in any state, according to a poll released today.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985

President Obama's Approval

President Barack Obama gets a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, near his all-time New York State low of 45 - 49 percent in an August 12, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll. The president is down 13 - 87 percent among Republicans and 35 - 61 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 81 - 15 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=1983

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/us-usa-iran-poll-idUSBRE9AQ01420131127

In case the poll numbers improve -- you will know why.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/27/us-usa-iran-poll-idUSBRE9AQ01420131127

In case the poll numbers improve -- you will know why.

It isn't hurting him, but people aren't really paying much attention to this story.

[IceSpear]

I doubt Obama's approval will ever rise above 50% again, barring some huge unambiguously positive event/accomplishment. The question is whether or not he will return to his ~45% equilibrium or will continue the slide until he reaches Dubya territory.