The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[The Vorlon]

Remember, they're using a Fox News poll that's essentially spam, like that CBS poll late last year.

Thats why you always use the oldest rule in poll analysis.....

"Throw put the high and the low and average the rest...."

Gallup                                41   54    -13
Rasmussen Reports           45   54    -9
The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
Bloomberg                          48   48    Tie
CNN/Opinion Research       43   53    -10
PPP (D)                               43   51    -8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl        41   54    -13
FOX News                            38   54    -16
ABC News/Wash Post          46   52    -6

Which leaves:

The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
Gallup                                41   54    -13
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl        41   54    -13
CNN/Opinion Research       43   53    -10
Rasmussen Reports           45   54    -9
PPP (D)                               43   51    -8
ABC News/Wash Post          46   52    -6

Average:                          43     53.4

It is odd to see NBC and ABC so far apart, they usually agree pretty closely

[Miles]

Gallup: 40/54

[Badger]

Remember, they're using a Fox News poll that's essentially spam, like that CBS poll late last year.

Please. Fox News polls tend to be fairly middle of the road in terms of results, and aren't even close to having the greatest consistent R lean.

[pbrower2a]

March 13-16, 2014

Survey of 568 Colorado voters
Colorado Survey Results

Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
43% Approve  53% Disapprove  5% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_CO_318.pdf

He'd have a chance to win Colorado if he were campaigning for a constitutionally-prohibited Third Term. 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Miles]

Gallup: Up to 45/49.

[Reaganfan]

Wow. That map is really telling.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup has usually shown unusually low approval ratings. 45/49 is inconsistent with what this map shows in much of the country.

Either Gallup is wrong or the statewide approval ratings are obsolete. 

Low as the statewide approval ratings now shown are, they seem not to hurt the chances of other Democrats. It could be that they reflect overall satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the political process. The results of the political process now reek. 

[pbrower2a]

March 20-23, 2014
Survey of 674 New Mexico voters

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NM_325.pdf
 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Obama job approval: Now, 47% approve, 49% disapprove. In January, 44% approve, 50% disapprove. #mulawpoll

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll

Huge recovery from Marquette University's last poll, and I expect to see huge improvements for the President's approval ratings elsewhere. If President Obama were seeking a Third Term this year (contrafactual in many ways) he would have to campaign -- but he would probably win 53% or 54% of the vote in Wisconsin. 
 


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Virginia:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2025


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Gravis Marketing, Illinois:

Obama approval 46%, disapproval 45%.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/illinois-telephone-survey/


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Michigan

Survey of 825 Michigan voters

information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988
Michigan Survey Results

Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?

44% Approve
50% Disapprove
6% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MI_408.pdf

He is more popular than the Governor.

April 3-6, 2014
Survey of 740 North Carolina voters

North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?

44% Approve
52% Disapprove
5% Not sure

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_408.pdf

Clear improvement.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, New Jersey:

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Approve 49% disapprove 48%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2030

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

St. Norbert's College, Wisconsin:

Approval 48, disapproval 50%

http://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2014/201404frequencies.pdf

No need for a new map.

[Tender Branson]

MN (SurveyUSA):

36-54

http://kstp.com/news/stories/s3392801.shtml

[pbrower2a]

Outlier.

No way is the President doing 12% worse in Minnesota than in Wisconsin.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Outlier.

No way is the President doing 12% worse in Minnesota than in Wisconsin.

And besides that, it's SurveyUSA (the people who gave us Ernie Fletcher).

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Texas. Nobody is going to argue with this finding:

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- See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/04/republicans-lead-in-texas.html#sthash.uhSSUq2C.dpuf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Winthrop Poll of South Carolinians removes an anomalous result from the map that had remained simply because we haven't been polled much of late. Some questions have results broken down both by all respondents and registered voters, but they only released the all respondent numbers for this question.

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60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[Tender Branson]

Obama's national approval average is now 44-51 on RCP.

This is up from 40-56 approval about 6 months ago.

If the trend continues, Obama would have roughly a split 48-48 rating by the time of the November elections.

[free my dawg]

Just picked the most reliable of the four firms to update my own state. Suffolk is slightly less reliable than Rasmussen, WMUR/UNH is too prone to swings, and ARG is, well... ARG. 48/52 approval.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[pbrower2a]

Just picked the most reliable of the four firms to update my own state. Suffolk is slightly less reliable than Rasmussen, WMUR/UNH is too prone to swings, and ARG is, well... ARG. 48/52 approval.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

That treatment of New Hampshire is valuable. Junk polls should be rejected -- and not averaged. Polls that nobody has ever heard of? Maybe another poll corroborates it. If it seems OK, it is OK. Every pollster starts out new.

Good work on the Winthrop poll. (thanks - did a little cleanup because I realized I used the wrong intensity - TF)

[Tender Branson]

Obama now at -2 in both Rasmussen and Gallup today:

Gallup is 46-48 and Rasmussen is 48-50.

Obama now has the best rating at Gallup since Sept. last year.

[Person Man]

Obama now at -2 in both Rasmussen and Gallup today:

Gallup is 46-48 and Rasmussen is 48-50.

Obama now has the best rating at Gallup since Sept. last year.

There really isn't a source of bad news to pull things down. The economy is going steady, the health care roll out was fixed and the country is more or less at peace though Afghanistan is still winding down and there is rumor of war in Ukraine.

[Tender Branson]

NYT/Kaiser polls:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

AR: 33-60
KY: 32-60
LA: 42-54
NC: 41-51

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/1146701/polls-in-four-southern-states-april-8-15-2014.pdf