The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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  The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 160348 times)
eric82oslo
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« Reply #650 on: October 14, 2014, 09:26:13 AM »

Rasmussen has glorious news out today, as Obama for the first time in months comes out even-headed With a 49-49 approval. Smiley

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #651 on: October 15, 2014, 06:31:25 AM »

Rasmussen has glorious news out today, as Obama for the first time in months comes out even-headed With a 49-49 approval. Smiley

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

But the Democrats running for the Senate and House cannot well exploit this fact. The Congressional ballot is dead even, which at best ensures practically ensures no change in the House 

Even if I am excessively partisan to make an objective statement, the President needs some genuine support on foreign policy -- support not tied to a willingness to concede  on all else to Senate and House Republicans to be able to execute an effective foreign policy.

In view of the behavior of Congressional and Senate Republicans, I have no cause to believe that the Republicans will not make a military victory over ISIS contingent upon accepting the transformation of America into a pure plutocracy. Yes, we have a war on our hands, with an enemy that America must defeat.

Barack Obama is not Dubya. He is cautious; he is meticulously honest. He may not relish war, but neither did Lincoln, Wilson, nor FDR. Lincoln, Wilson, and FDR won the wars that they did not want.   


 
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Frodo
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« Reply #652 on: October 15, 2014, 07:23:26 PM »

Obama's approval ratings have now sunk to 40%, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
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Vega
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« Reply #653 on: October 19, 2014, 06:16:56 PM »


I don't think "sunk" is the right word. It's not like he hasn't been there lately.
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Person Man
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« Reply #654 on: October 23, 2014, 09:22:41 PM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #655 on: October 24, 2014, 10:22:45 AM »

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Despite it falling dramatically in almost all battleground states and most others as well, Obama's approval rating remains virtually untouched in Georgia, of all places. Thanks, growing black electorate! If Georgia weren't so inelastic, I bet Obama would be down here campaigning for Nunn and Carter. He's literally been phoning it in though, by calling into black radio stations in ATL to support them.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #656 on: October 24, 2014, 12:21:17 PM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
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Person Man
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« Reply #657 on: October 24, 2014, 03:48:36 PM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #658 on: October 24, 2014, 05:52:21 PM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.
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Person Man
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« Reply #659 on: October 24, 2014, 06:22:17 PM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #660 on: October 24, 2014, 06:27:37 PM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

No, it doesn't work that way for open seats. McCain won 46% of the vote even when Bush was at 25% approval.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #661 on: October 25, 2014, 07:49:01 AM »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

Inapplicable. Not the same person and certainly not the same agenda. Polls have shown her likely to do about as well at the least as Barack Obama did against McCain in 2008 -- against everyone.

President Obama will not be campaigning for a third term. He will keep his distance as he did in Senate campaigns in 2012 and this year. 
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Person Man
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« Reply #662 on: October 28, 2014, 03:18:56 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2014, 03:25:56 PM by MooMooMoo, Amith! »

YouGov polled all 50 states:



The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.
Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

Inapplicable. Not the same person and certainly not the same agenda. Polls have shown her likely to do about as well at the least as Barack Obama did against McCain in 2008 -- against everyone.

President Obama will not be campaigning for a third term. He will keep his distance as he did in Senate campaigns in 2012 and this year.  

But ultimately the point is that unless things are going very well, and either you run a great campaign or they run a really bad one, you are probably going to lose the third term for your party. I would be very surprised if there was still a democrat in the WH 3 years from now. Let's face it, things are going OK and I expect things will still probably be OK in 2016 and we will probably run a superior candidate. However, people don't like one-party rule and as good as Hillary is, she's flawed. Maybe she'll get lucky are she'll run against someone who offsets her weaknesses.

I will say this- given that many of our long term problems weren't solved by Obama and that a Republican will probably exacerbate them and throw off this slow and moderate business cycle, I expect something to happen during that Republican's first term to make him not get reelected. However, if something happens in the next year or two, that Republican will probably eventually win big on either being a "Morning in America" candidate or moderately as someone who has steadily restored sanity. Then again, if something happens on his watch and he totally owns the situation and builds his agenda around it, he could be reelected ala W.

So, I am expecting 2016 to be somewhere between 2000 and 2008 and  2020 to be like 1980 (something happened and you couldn't fix it), but it could just as easily be a 1996/1984/2012 (you got credited with fixing something, especially if you now have to share power Congress) or a 2004 (something happened and just enough people think you fixed it).
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #663 on: November 17, 2014, 11:50:07 AM »

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http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/13/obama-job-rating-flat-after-midterm-losses-unlike-bush-ike-truman/
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #664 on: November 17, 2014, 04:36:40 PM »

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That's interesting. Looks like the good people of America still have faith in our great president.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #665 on: November 17, 2014, 04:43:34 PM »

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That's interesting. Looks like the good people of America still have faith in our great president.

Hardly surprising. Everybody loves a winner, even if that winner cheated.

Yes, it really did!

Wait till people see what the GOP has to offer, and if it is little more than Hard Right boilerplate, then Republicans will really have to cheat to win in 2016.


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #666 on: December 02, 2014, 02:54:27 AM »

Both Gallup and Rasmussen now have improving poll numbers for Obama (Thanksgiving effect ?):

Gallup: 45-50
Rasmussen: 48-50

On the other hand, Reuters/Ipsos and The Economist/YouGov (both done before Thanksgiving) show the opposite:

37-56 and 39-58

But Ipsos and YouGov were also miles away from the 2014 exit poll result.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #667 on: December 02, 2014, 08:12:44 PM »

The RCP average was pretty accurate, though. So was CNN and Fox, relatively. I've heard that presidents tend to see their approval or disapproval accentuated near the end of their terms. If Obama drops more, I'd be interested to see the fallout.
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Person Man
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« Reply #668 on: December 04, 2014, 03:01:12 PM »

The RCP average was pretty accurate, though. So was CNN and Fox, relatively. I've heard that presidents tend to see their approval or disapproval accentuated near the end of their terms. If Obama drops more, I'd be interested to see the fallout.

It could just hold in the 40s, go into the 50s or fall faster than Willie E. Coyote off a cliff. At any rate, he will probably be remembered by 2020 between W's reputation as "someone who was dealt a sh**t hand and tried hard but still blew it" or as Clinton was as "a good manager that fixed some things".

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Bigby
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« Reply #669 on: December 07, 2014, 01:05:00 AM »

Gallup from its Dec. 2 - Dec. 5 polls has Obama back down to 41 - 52. I wonder what caused the temporary 4 point surge.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #670 on: December 08, 2014, 10:44:48 AM »

Obama's approval just made a massive jump today to 50-49 (Rasmussen).

On Gallup he's recovering too.

Job report bounce ?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #671 on: December 08, 2014, 10:47:05 AM »

Maybe a sympathy bump after his recent health troubles?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #672 on: December 08, 2014, 11:42:53 AM »

People don't care about the job reports that much, since the reports have been way too optimistic for the past 20 years, regardless of what party is in power. And his health problems weren't that severe. I kept suffering from a recurring sore throat when I was in high school, but my approval ratings didn't go up.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #673 on: December 11, 2014, 11:52:27 AM »

Quinnipiac, New Jersey

                    APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Dec 11  Aug 06  Apr 09  Jul 09  Jun 10  Jun 10  Oct 13
                     2014    2014    2014    2013    2013    2009    2011
 
Approve              46      44      49      53      53      68      43
Disapprove           50      52      48      41      41      25      52
DK/NA                 4       4       4       6       5       7       5

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2118

Slightly better than the previous Q poll.





60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)

50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)














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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #674 on: December 14, 2014, 09:15:05 PM »

Obama had a boost after the 2010 midterms too, for what it's worth.
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