The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[IceSpear]

I doubt Obama's approval will ever rise above 50% again, barring some huge unambiguously positive event/accomplishment. The question is whether or not he will return to his ~45% equilibrium or will continue the slide until he reaches Dubya territory.

[IceSpear]

You guys just seriously need to calm down and wait a month before looking at the polls and seeing everything's basically back to normal. As with any OMG POLITICAL ARMAGEDDON event (the government shutdown, the Obamacare glitches) people will forget fairly shortly and the boring equilibrium will be restored.

Seriously.

There has been no major economic calamity and there is no war gone bad.  If you seriously think Obama's headed into Bush territory, you're either paranoid or overly optimistic, depending on where you side.

Haven't you read the media? The "disastrous Obamacare rollout" is "Obama's Katrina" AND "Obama's Iraq"!

[IceSpear]

It's actually very offensive that the media is comparing this to things that caused thousands of American DEATHS (Iraq War, Katrina).

Truly beyond the pale and shows how low they're willing to go to fit their false equivalence narrative.

[IceSpear]

The Colorado poll isn't too bad, considering PPP overpolled Romney supporters - again.

2014 will be a lower turnout year, so it's possible these swing states could be having an electorate Romney actually won.

[IceSpear]

Finally the dead cat bounce has arrived.

[IceSpear]

I shame they're cutting back to one public poll a week.  Hopefully we'll get better polls, and until it gets closer to the elections we don't really need a lot of polls.  Still, gotta wonder why Oregon is getting all that poll love.

PPP's polls often get manipulated. And they are in fact easy to manipulate ...

That only speaks to how, not why.

Probably some niche Oregon politics site encouraging their members to spam the poll.

Seriously, who gives a crap about Oregon. Merkley is safe, Kitzhaber is safe, there is no competitive House race.

[IceSpear]

wat @ Texas

[IceSpear]

He's +5 on Rasmussen now - 52/47.

Yeah, I didn't really get where Sean Trende was coming from in his latest biased crap piece about how Obama's awful approvals are going to kill Dem changes at holding the Senate.

Rasmussen is the clear outlier though.

That said, Trende does think Obama's approval matters in Senate races much more than it actually does.

[IceSpear]

Are there any other Dems here in denial of how unpopular nationally Obama is? I just can't wrap my mind around it. What has he done to get to Pre-2008 Bush levels?

His average seems to be around 41-43%. Bush was in the 30s for 2006-2007, I believe.

[IceSpear]

Damn Illinois, that's cold.

Though YouGov does have it under the national average (43-53).

[IceSpear]

Interestingly, RCP now has Obama at his highest approval since early June. Is it due to the economic news, ISIS events, or both?

[IceSpear]

YouGov polled all 50 states:

The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.

Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

No, it doesn't work that way for open seats. McCain won 46% of the vote even when Bush was at 25% approval.

[IceSpear]

I have sent RCP an email that they should remove that silly Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll from their average, just like the Economist/YouGov poll.

They are major outliers.

Rasmussen, Gallup, CNN and CBS all show ca. 50-50 ratings right now.

Reuters/Ipsos has a 38% (!!!) approval and YouGov is not much better.

These 2 were already way off compared with the 2014 exit poll.

Rasmussen has had Obama's approval rating much higher than the consensus for years and RCP never removed them.

[IceSpear]

The Maryland Survey- 45/51

So Obama is the same in Maryland as he is nationally? Junk poll!

[IceSpear]

Selzer has Obama at 47-46.

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-04-15/150416_bloomberg_public_v2-837465.pdf

[IceSpear]

He's on positive approval on RCP for the first time since June 2013 today.

I expect more pundit analysis about how Obama's approval rating dooms Democrats in 2016.

[IceSpear]

Gallup has it up to 52% now.

Wow.

People are realizing they could do A LOT worse.

It also helps that Hillary is around to absorb all the sludge now. The opposite dynamic was in play during 2013-2014.