The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[Person Man]

So at least that's good news for Western Democrats like myself- we're not doing any worse than Midwestern or even some Northeast Dems.

[Person Man]

I have noticed that Obama's approval ratings have returned to near-normal levels these past few days. But just wait a few days, and the right-wing media will have some other bogus anti-Obama complaint to trot out.

They never quit.

Indeed. Or like I said, maybe they know something we don't and are just biding their time until they have proof that he's a crook... or maybe the Conservative Media  is just being the Conservative Media.

[Person Man]

The Colorado poll isn't too bad, considering PPP overpolled Romney supporters - again.

2014 will be a lower turnout year, so it's possible these swing states could be having an electorate Romney actually won.

Please ignore him, he's the left-wing krazen.

but 2016 won't be...

[Person Man]

Rasmussen is the sole remaining voice of reason in these trying times.

Some years ago you would have been executed for a comment like this.

Or at least sent to the Forum psychiatric ward ...

Could it be that he is being disapproved of from the left?

[Person Man]

Could it be that he is being disapproved of from the left?

I think there was a poll a couple weeks ago that pretty much proved that was the case. I hear lots of complaints on the ground that he's too conservative.

It's like how the polls on Obamacare show most people oppose the law, but that includes a significant number who think the law doesn't go far enough.

That gives us two possibilities for the 14/16 cycle... 20 and 30 year old democrats and diverse democrats come home and let us keep the senate and keep us a national party or they decide to just go home, light up a dooby and slam a six pack and we lose the senate and only win a handful of states in the Northeast and pacific coast.

[Person Man]

Obama now at -2 in both Rasmussen and Gallup today:

Gallup is 46-48 and Rasmussen is 48-50.

Obama now has the best rating at Gallup since Sept. last year.

There really isn't a source of bad news to pull things down. The economy is going steady, the health care roll out was fixed and the country is more or less at peace though Afghanistan is still winding down and there is rumor of war in Ukraine.

[Person Man]

YouGov polled all 50 states:

The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

[Person Man]

YouGov polled all 50 states:

The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.

Indeed.

[Person Man]

YouGov polled all 50 states:

The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.

Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

[Person Man]

YouGov polled all 50 states:

The national rating was 40% approve, 57% disapprove.

That looks like 2016 at 41-58 or something..

It is pretty cool that the Democrats could lose a 1984-esque landslide these days and still win 100 electoral votes.

Indeed.

Incumbents usually gain about 6% in vote share from their early approval ratings if they run for re-election. They usually campaign to get re-elected unless they are have approval ratings well below 40%.

He'd still lose 47-53 or something.

I can see that happening to Hillary in 2016 if things remain about the same as they do today.

Shed probably get 45 or 46 in Colorado,New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa, like 42 to 45 in states like Arkansas, Missouri and W Virginia. Shed get like 47 in N Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Ohio and barely lose Virginia, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Shed pull off NM and MI though. Thatd put her between McCain and Romney.

Inapplicable. Not the same person and certainly not the same agenda. Polls have shown her likely to do about as well at the least as Barack Obama did against McCain in 2008 -- against everyone.

President Obama will not be campaigning for a third term. He will keep his distance as he did in Senate campaigns in 2012 and this year.  

But ultimately the point is that unless things are going very well, and either you run a great campaign or they run a really bad one, you are probably going to lose the third term for your party. I would be very surprised if there was still a democrat in the WH 3 years from now. Let's face it, things are going OK and I expect things will still probably be OK in 2016 and we will probably run a superior candidate. However, people don't like one-party rule and as good as Hillary is, she's flawed. Maybe she'll get lucky are she'll run against someone who offsets her weaknesses.

I will say this- given that many of our long term problems weren't solved by Obama and that a Republican will probably exacerbate them and throw off this slow and moderate business cycle, I expect something to happen during that Republican's first term to make him not get reelected. However, if something happens in the next year or two, that Republican will probably eventually win big on either being a "Morning in America" candidate or moderately as someone who has steadily restored sanity. Then again, if something happens on his watch and he totally owns the situation and builds his agenda around it, he could be reelected ala W.

So, I am expecting 2016 to be somewhere between 2000 and 2008 and  2020 to be like 1980 (something happened and you couldn't fix it), but it could just as easily be a 1996/1984/2012 (you got credited with fixing something, especially if you now have to share power Congress) or a 2004 (something happened and just enough people think you fixed it).

[Person Man]

The RCP average was pretty accurate, though. So was CNN and Fox, relatively. I've heard that presidents tend to see their approval or disapproval accentuated near the end of their terms. If Obama drops more, I'd be interested to see the fallout.

It could just hold in the 40s, go into the 50s or fall faster than Willie E. Coyote off a cliff. At any rate, he will probably be remembered by 2020 between W's reputation as "someone who was dealt a sh**t hand and tried hard but still blew it" or as Clinton was as "a good manager that fixed some things".