The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[The Vorlon]

Obama drops and drops ...

CBS poll: 37% approve, 57% disapprove

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57613067/poll-obamacare-support-obama-approval-sink-to-new-lows

Wow - minus 20 in a CBS poll.... Ra^ther interesting..

The word Schadenfreude keeps coming to mind....

That being said, at some point in the 2nd term a President can decouple from the party as a whole on polling (as Bush II did)

During the first term, job approval is a darn good proxy for "Are you gonna vote for the guy again?" - in the second term, this obvioulsy does not apply.

Issues like being honest and trustworthy have taken a  hit, but not yet to critical levels.

"assuming" no other major shoes drop, I think this is a standing 8 count, but not a knockout moment.

[The Vorlon]

According to the internals for the CBS poll, they interviewed 281 Republicans, 299 Democrats, and 430 others. That's a mighty GOP-leaning sample.

They weighed that sample back to

23.7% GOP,
29.3 Democrat
48.0% Independant.

+5.6 to the Dem side is "reasonable" IMHO, especially with so many independants, The variousl polling firms handle party ID so very differently that poll to poll comparisons tend not to have a lot of actual value.

The party ID question has never worked really well, and it works even less well right now with both parties being held in contempt by the electorate.

[The Vorlon]

One poll is, well... one poll....

I still like the "old school" rule on polls... toss out the high and the low and average the rest.....

CBS News                       37   57    -20
Gallup                               40   53    -13
Rasmussen Reports               43   56    -13
The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
ABC News/Wash Post          41   56    -15
FOX News                       40   55    -15
Quinnipiac                       39   54    -15
National Journal               38   55    -17
Pew Research                       39   56    -17



The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
ABC News/Wash Post          41   56    -15
FOX News                       40   55    -15
Gallup                               40   53    -13
Quinnipiac                       39   54    -15
National Journal               38   55    -17
Pew Research                       39   56    -17
Average                               39.9     55.0  -15.1

Average what is left an Job approval is about 40 / 55 or so

[The Vorlon]

But this is the same CBS that produced that discredited Benghazi report a few weeks back, so who's surprised?

Remember when CBS had a news division?

[The Vorlon]

Another interesting little tidbit: Respondents in the Illinois poll said they voted for Obama by 9. Actually he won the state by 17. So they greatly oversampled Republicans.

The "who did you vote for in the last election" question absolutely sucks in a poll.

According to all polling done in the later part of 1974, for example, McGovern actually "won" in 1972 if you asked folks who they voted for...

[The Vorlon]

ABC says 43/55
NBC/WSJ says 43/54

In the whole mix of polls these are the two I trust the most, and they happen to agree with each other.

Of the 12 polls in todays RCP average 9 have Obama in the 41 to 43 range, with two above and one below.

Pretty hard to argue that his approval rating is not in the 42 (ish) range....

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen seems to be a total outlier right now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

Ever since Scott Rasmussen got kicked out of his own company left to pursue other options, that poll has been very, very erratic.

To have Obama's approval go from minus 11 (44/55 on Feb 14th) to plus 5 (52/47 on Feb 24th) and then back down to minus 9 (45/54 o March 4) is just clearly in wild contrast with reality. 

Unless I somehow missed that Obama cured cancer one week , followed by being outed as a child molester the next week, presidential approval simply does not change that fast.

Rasmussen reports methodology was never all that transparent to begin with, and since Scott has left, it has if anything gotten worse.

[The Vorlon]

He's -4 on ABC but -16 on Fox. They can't both be right.

Gallup                                       41   55    -14
Rasmussen Reports                       46   53    -7
FOX News                               38   54    -16
The Economist/YouGov               42   55    -13
ABC News/Wash Post               46   52    -6
CBS News/NY Times                       41   51    -10

Approval... anywhere from 38 to 46...   pretty wide range
Disapproval .... from 51 to 55....

In a Presidents second term "job approval" polling gets pretty murky.  In the first term "Job Approval" is a pretty darn good proxy for "Will ya vote for him again?" in a second term it is less clear.

Obama is in the "unpopular" range (ie 40-45%) but still hanging in above the "toxic" range (below 40%)

FWIW the Huffington Post model (Basically a declining weight least squares fit) has Obama about -9 (52 to 43) which looks about right to my eye.

Obama has a base,  he is unlikely to ever drop below 40% unless the media were to turn upon him, and that is deeply unlikely.

[The Vorlon]

unless the media were to turn upon him, and that is deeply unlikely.

Uh.

They've turned upon him since 2008.

Yup you're right.  My God MSMBC has just turn into a GOP lapdog... kinda sickening isn't it?

[The Vorlon]

I am not really seeing any major changes actually....

I am a bit surprised the WSJ/NBC and ABC/WASHPOST disagree as much as they do, those are both excellent polls and they (almost always) very closely agree....

March 13th, 2014

RCP Average      43.0   52.9    -9.9
Huffington Post   42.9   52.2    -9.3

February 13th, 2014

RCP Average      43.0   52.6    -9.6
Huffington Post        42.7 52.3 -9.6

IE - exactly the same in the Huff Po model
Gain of 0.6% in RCP average (throw out Bloomberg and he is actually down)
 
Current Polling

Gallup         41   54    -13
Rasmussen Reports   45   54    -9
The Economist/YouGov   42   56    -14
Bloomberg      48   48    Tie
CNN/Opinion Research   43   53    -10
PPP (D)   3/6 - 3/9   43   51    -8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   41   54    -13
FOX News      38   54    -16
ABC News/Wash Post   46   52    -6

Polls This Month versus last Month



Gallup

Gallup   3/10 - 3/12   1500 A   41   54   -13
Gallup   2/10 - 2/12   1500 A   39   51   -12

Net Change - Obama +1

Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports   3/10 - 3/12   1500 LV   45   54   -9
Rasmussen Reports   2/10 - 2/12   1500 LV   44   55   -11

Obama +2


ABC News/Wash Post   2/27 - 3/2   RV   46   52   -6
ABC News/Wash Post   1/20 - 1/23   RV   45   52   -7

Net change +1 Obama

FOX News   3/2 - 3/4   1002 RV   38   54   -16
FOX News   2/9 - 2/11   1006 RV   42   53   -11

Net change -5 Obama

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   3/5 - 3/9   1000 A   41   54   -13
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   1/22 - 1/25   800 A   43   51   -8

Net Change - 5 obama

The Economist/YouGov   3/8 - 3/10   714 RV   42   56   -14
The Economist/YouGov   3/1 - 3/3   710 RV   42   55   -13
The Economist/YouGov   2/22 - 2/24   710 RV   43   55   -12
The Economist/YouGov   2/15 - 2/17   723 RV   42   56   -14
The Economist/YouGov   2/8 - 2/10   716 RV   42   56   -14

No real changes

[The Vorlon]

Remember, they're using a Fox News poll that's essentially spam, like that CBS poll late last year.

Thats why you always use the oldest rule in poll analysis.....

"Throw put the high and the low and average the rest...."

Gallup                                41   54    -13
Rasmussen Reports           45   54    -9
The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
Bloomberg                          48   48    Tie
CNN/Opinion Research       43   53    -10
PPP (D)                               43   51    -8
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl        41   54    -13
FOX News                            38   54    -16
ABC News/Wash Post          46   52    -6

Which leaves:

The Economist/YouGov       42   56    -14
Gallup                                41   54    -13
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl        41   54    -13
CNN/Opinion Research       43   53    -10
Rasmussen Reports           45   54    -9
PPP (D)                               43   51    -8
ABC News/Wash Post          46   52    -6

Average:                          43     53.4

It is odd to see NBC and ABC so far apart, they usually agree pretty closely