The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Color-coded by state:

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election. see this thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=166014.0;num_replies=5
for posts related to this one.

[pbrower2a]

President Obama doing fine in Ohio and really well in New York (Q):

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election. see this thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=166014.0;num_replies=5
for posts related to this one.

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, you forgot to include PA in your map. It's on page 2 of this thread. The result was 52-45 approve by Quinnipiac.

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac):

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1815

With pleasure.  So far approval ratings for the President look much like the electoral results. No buyer's remorse in OH, PA, or VA yet.

Not with so much pleasure:

Kentucky Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 38%
Disapprove...................................................... 59%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Kentucky_1212.pdf

As in Georgia, the right Democrat can win in Kentucky:

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60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

NC (PPP):

48-49 disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_121212.pdf

Razor-thin in 2012 and razor-thin now.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

So PPP is basically not seeing an Obama approvals bump? That's weird.

Second term; he has not changed, and nothing big has happened. People knew what they were getting when they voted for him -- or against him. This isn't 2008.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_1218.pdf

The big change is in the approval for the Governor. The Winter of Discontent has begun with Michigan politics even if the winter snows have been late to arrive.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Florida --

President Obama up 54-42.  No buyer's remorse in Florida; the President is well ahead of the electoral results there.  


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1827

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

A month and a half after the election we already have approval ratings for the President in just over a quarter of all states, 214 electoral votes, and 7 of 15 states decided by less than 10%. President Obama would win again, and at this point he isn't hurting the chance of any high-profile Democrat to win the Presidency in 2016.

A caveat: Richard Nixon was doing even better in 1972.

Don't expect any quick fill of the map. Most polls of approval of the President will arise in polls related to something else. Quinnipiac has gone through most of the few States that it ever polls (it is a good pollster) and will likely repeat those few states, PPP polls about two states a week, and the pollsters that made fools of themselves in 2012 may wisely go into hibernation (as if anyone is curious). The Holidays are coming, and PPP was going into shutdown until Michigan got interesting.

There are plenty of openings for polls west of the Mississippi.

[pbrower2a]

Holy S*** his ratings could be 70% soon.

Obama's ratings are unlikely to go even beyond 60% anytime soon, unless there's a 9/11-like situation.

No, far-rights will only more fervently disapprove of this President for allowing a 9/11 type situation.

To get Presidential approvals in the 70s one would now need the abject surrender of a defeated Evil Empire of recent years to the US. Besides, political momentum is a delusion.

The Hard Right will never accept this President. Moderate conservatives could, but they are effectively shut out of representation in Congress. They are a big part of the electorate, and if Rasmussen can find a Presidential approval of 56% or so, then the President has the support of the  Left side of the political spectrum  other than its extreme (basically those people who want a Socialist America with Marxist economics)  maybe 3% of the public. The 4th to 60th percentile of people in the right-left ideological spectrum are with him, which is probably about the inverse of how Americans saw Ronald Reagan (40th to 96th percentiles of Americans on the left-right continuum approved of him). In a mature democracy with clearly-delineated sides on issues one is not going to get the 23rd to 78th percentile with him. Resource-grabbers and environmentalists are not going to find themselves backing the same politicians.   

Except for Obamacare that violates the 'principle' of profit-directed medicine, President Obama has done much that a competent conservative Republican President could have done. Lily Ledbetter? Good idea. Putting an end to American involvement in pointless, budget-wrecking wars? Eisenhower won some support for the end of the Korean War. Aborting the worst economic meltdown in 80 years? I can't imagine anyone opposing that abortion. Whacking the anti-American terrorist with the largest amount of American blood on his hands  that any terrorist has ever had? Such is not an ideological choice. Tax cuts for the non-rich? They worked. Avoiding scandals, corruption, and military or diplomatic debacles? One would think that such would be the minimum of good government. 

Now that the invective against this President has abated due to its irrelevance as he can no longer be defeated in an election Americans get to see him for what he is. People who in 2009 said that their first priority was to ensure that Barack Obama be a one-term President have failed at that.

Perhaps the best thing that can happen while we have Barack Obama is the revival of a sane, humane conservatism that respects reason and science while promoting thrift and investment as the means of sustainable growth. We haven't had that sort of conservatism for a long time. We have instead had thinly-disguised racism, anti-rational and bigoted religiosity, crony capitalism, wars for profit, and economic policies suited to a fascist dictatorship posing as conservatism. Conservatism succeeds when people commonly recognize that they have a stake in a system that promotes growth with equity, that they can hold fast to science and reason, and can reject demagoguery of both the Right and Left. 

[pbrower2a]

Last Rasmussen poll for 2012:

Monday, December 31, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat approve of President Obama's job performance. Forty-one percent (41%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends).

That 57% rating is up 11 points from a year ago. It's also up nine points from the last day of 2010 and up 11 points from the last day of 2009.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Next release from Rasmussen -- Thursday, January 3, 2013.

[pbrower2a]

PPP will be polling two critical states of the 2012 election this weekend. Don't expect any states added to the state map, because those two are Pennsylvania and Virginia. Quinnipiac has gone through most of its circuit.   

[pbrower2a]

PPP polled Pennsylvania  and Virginia; Quinnipiac polled Virginia; neither asked about approval of the President. No change.   

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

PPP has a national result:

National Survey Results

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It's remarkable how many people forget how they voted. "Someone else" got less than 2% of the popular vote, so the 7% who replied "Someone else/Don't remember" went  2% for "someone else",  and of the other 5% -- 1% forgot that they voted for Obama and 4% forgot that they voted for Romney. 

Other questions involve Congress, guns and gun control, and Chris Christie:

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A Republican who shows any resistance to the Tea Party gets respect. For the rest of the poll:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Natl_10913.pdf

PPP may be run by a Democrat, but it seems to have a slight R lean.

[pbrower2a]

At this point we don't know who will be voting in 2014. A 'likely voters' screen ordinarily best describes who votes in an off-year election. But this said...

1. Americans love a winner. President Obama has stronger approval than Congress as a whole because he won a struggle which the GOP/Tea Party forced. Sure, one can give credit to others and culpability to Republican pols who under-performed.

2. Although mass analysis of voting psychology is suspect, it would seem that more people forgot that they voted for Mitt Romney than forgot that they voted for Barack Obama. Those who voted for a third-party nominee are excused, and I figure that most of those are disgusted with our political system or its results and don't see Republicans or Democrats as a solution. Maybe many people want to forget that they voted for Mitt Romney.

3. We can largely ignore Mitt Romney as a possible GOP nominee in 2016. Just look at the favorable numbers.

4. The Republican brand is in shambles. Sure, it kept its House majority because of gerrymandering two years ago... but House Republicans have a particularly bad image. Just because a Congressional district is R+4 does not mean that an extremist can be a sure winner. A Marxist should lose a D+4 district to a moderate Republican -- right? Zany R candidates for the US Senate from Indiana and Missouri, states that President Obama did not contest, lost.

5. Openings may appear for moderates who choose to run as Republicans. Someone who can  challenge the anti-intellectualism of incumbent GOP pols while committing to fiscal conservatism could win a primary. Anti-intellectualism in the GOP doesn't stop at assailing wackiness in the Ivory Tower; it goes after the educated middle class, even at the low end of the intelligentsia such as schoolteachers. Schoolteachers are one of the largest occupational groups in America.

The non-white, non-Anglo, and non-Christian contingents of the American middle class (as well as about half of the middle class that is white, Anglo, and Christian) attributes such success as they have heavily to formal education. Push creationism and politically-loaded pseudo-history, and one can expect a reaction.   

The Republicans need miracles to win 2014 even if the midterm has a reduced electorate. If people who have been voting for Republican pols find Democratic alternatives attractive, then the gerrymandering of 2011 becomes a disaster by sponsoring pols who can only fail. 22 months is enough to earn some miracles, but that is a short time in which to sort things out.   

[pbrower2a]

Virginia (PPP):

53-43 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_Virginia_110.pdf

   

Virginia (Quinnipiac):

52-44 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1830

Average margin 9% between the two. President Obama seems to be gaining since the election (electoral margin 51-47). 

PPP will be polling Florida and North Carolina this weekend. Could someone please poll Out West?

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.

[pbrower2a]

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll_FiscalCliff_Decemberv6.pdf

This is a composite poll of twelve states (CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, WI). It is already a month old. President Obama won all but one of those states).

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Voting in these states, according to the poll, was roughly 52 Obama, 42 Romney, 3 other candidates, and 3 aren't saying. I'm guessing that it was 53-45-2 in those states.   

Were I to use the 51% approval rating in the states not already shown for statewide approval ratings that PurplePoll has in its composite I would get this result: 

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

Polls only from after the 2012 election.


I do not use composite polls and discourage others from using them.  Here is what I go with:

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina, PPP:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_116.pdf

No change in color, but that could be deceiving. The prior poll had President Obama 1% below an exact tie.     

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

Almost as far west as one can get, but only four electoral votes and no surprise:

Hawaii, 65% approve, 29% disapprove, 6% don't know  


http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/01/14/18076-civil-beat-poll-did-abercrombie-make-the-right-choice-for-senator/    

Florida remains polarized, but President Obama would win it:


Florida Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_011713.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

PPP had polls involving Maine and Minnesota, but none asked any question about Presidential approval. An entity in Colorado asked several questions about gun control (gun control wins big in Colorado, with 61% margins on  banning the sale of assault rifles and massacre clips and bigger margins on some other issues). Questions about approval of the President would have been interesting in those states.

NJ - Quinnipiac:

58-39 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1833

No change.

WV - Harper Polling (R):

34-59 disapprove

http://www.harperpolling.com/polls/wv-senate-capito-up-big

R pollster, but it is hard to see how President Obama could have approval above 40% in West Virginia.

VA - Christopher Newport University:

51-43 approve

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/va-politics/another-survey-shows-dead-heat-in-va-governors-race/2013/01/23/3479edfc-656e-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_story.html

MD - Gonzales Research:

64-35 approve

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-01-23/news/bal-poll-shows-obama-omalley-approval-remain-strong-20130122_1_gonzales-research-death-penalty-maryland-voters

Consistent with prior polls in Virginia and with electoral results in Maryland.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

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MN-PPP:

51-47 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012413.pdf

Looks slightly, but not significantly, weaker than the 2012 result.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

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Districts not distinguished.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS
 

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_130.pdf

With the usual caveat that getting a good sample in Texas statewide politics  is difficult, this is not bad for a state that the President lost by 16% in November. I see Texas as a fringe state for contention in 2016. Republican incumbents in the Governorship and the Senate are about the same (Cornyn) or far worse (Perry) in their margins of approval ratings as the President. That's not my opinion  -- that is the polling.

US Senate:

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Governor:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_129.pdf

By the way -- Texas voters want an assault-weapons ban.

Which is about as poor as approvals for right-wing Republican Governors in liberal-to-moderate states (Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida).

PA - Quinnipiac:

51-46 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1836

NY - Quinnipiac:

57-39 approve

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-york-state/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1838

No surprise here:

Massachusetts Survey Results

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MA_130.pdf

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

So, you may ask, "Why does that crazy pbrower2a have an obsession about the President's approval rating? He is not running for re-election."

It is about 2016. It is of course possible that President Obama will be seen fondly in 2016 as a Democratic nominee offers to carry his political legacy, and seek change in the Presidency in the form of the Republican nominee. Who knows? Democrats could nominate a turkey as a candidate to be the 45th President. Nobody can now predict that, and this map would be irrelevant. We would have plenty of interesting maps showing what will then matter most in the election.

 It is also possible that President Obama will endure some personal scandal or be around when a military/diplomatic debacle happens or the economy goes into a tailspin. The map would show that as a raft of states now in pink go aqua or even blue. Needing to formulate  proposals to undo the recent failures of the lame-duck President is a no-win situation. Just look at how the 2008 election went. John McCain could not repudiate the policies of Dubya without offending the core R support and could never push reforms that would satisfy Democrats in large enough numbers to win.

President Obama is not facing buyer's remorse.

[pbrower2a]

California checks in (PPIC), with 3 different measures:

All Adults: 65-29 approve
Registered Voters: 60-37 approve
Likely Voters: 56-41 approve

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, January 2013. Includes 1,704 adults, 1,386 registered voters, and 1,116 likely voters. Interviews took place January 15–22, 2013. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±3.5%. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0113.pdf

I guess RV makes the most sense for pbrower's map (WTF are "likely voters" at this point ?).

Who could figure what a "likely voter" is for November 2016? Some people who will then be voting are 14 years old, and there will obviously be some habitual voters who do not vote in 2016 unless dead people become commonplace voters due to local vote fraud.

"Adults" is too broad a category, and I concur with the idea that people registered to vote in 2012 who can still vote are going to vote in an open-seat Presidential election.

Quantity trumps quality at this stage, and quality will become better as political events define themselves in 46 months.  Now that California is filled in, every state with at least 13 electoral votes is somehow accounted for, if not perfectly (I really take any poll of Texas, no matter what the source, with a Texas-sized boulder of salt because the state is Texas, even if I can get carried away with the alluring prospect of the state becoming competitive again).



60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue
under 40% deep blue

[pbrower2a]

Rhode Island (PPP):

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 59%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_RI_201.pdf

No surprise there.

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (30% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
40-44% blue (50% saturation)
under 40% deep blue (70% saturation)