Mason Dixon claims Hurricane Sandy caused massive swing

[Mister Twister]

Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said the shift was not caused by polling error, but because Obama moved the needle with his handling of Hurricane Sandy.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/masondixon-claims-huge-sandy-swing-148952.html?hp=r9

[Holmes]

Yeeeah. Not the gold standard anymore.

[J. J.]

Yeeeah. Not the gold standard anymore.

Definitely not.  They had two FL polls in the last weeks that were R +6.

[JohnCA246]

Lol, what a great excuse. Even if they were right, that is why you don't declare someone the winner with time to weeks to go ala 1948.

[Landslide Lyndon]

[memphis]

Frank Newport, editor of Gallup, said pretty much the same thing on NPR yesterday.

[BlueSwan]

That's just ridiculous. Those people need to own up to their errors. Yes, there was a shift in the polls during the last week of the campaign, but it was not "massive" by any means and it did NOT decide the election. Had the election been one week earlier, Obama would probably have lost Florida, but nothing else. Not enough undecideds in Ohio to sway that and Obamas support in Virginia and Colorado was bigger than the polls suggested.

[Stranger in a strange land]

What happened to Mason Dixon? Back when I first started following politics, they were one of the best pollsters out there, and now they're the farthest off. With Rasmussen, it's understandable, because he realized he could make more money telling Hannity & O'Reilly's viewers what they wanted to hear rather than conducting legitimate polls, but what happened with M-D?

[GMantis]

I didn't know that Hurricane Sandy struck Florida.

[Franzl]

Haha.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I didn't know that Hurricane Sandy struck California.

Or Missouri and Utah.

[Franzl]

I didn't know that Hurricane Sandy struck California.

Or Missouri and Utah.

Well it's the "Hurricane" house effect, so to speak.

[Tender Branson]

Their polls, especially in FL, were to the right of other pollsters most of the time.

So, the problem was more their sampling, not the storm.

[Likely Voter]

Well exit polls did show that Obama won the 9% of people who decided in the last week by about 9 points IIRC. So a case could be made that those late deciders could have broken for Romney. However indications were that Obama had momentum starting after the 3rd debate.

As I predicted before the election, Sandy was going to enter GOP lore as the reason they lost their momentum just like the OBL tape is part of Dem lore for why Kerry lost his mo. In reality, both were likely on their way to defeat.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Frank Newport, editor of Gallup, said pretty much the same thing on NPR yesterday.

What a load of bull! Gallup's problem was that they were working under the assumption that the electorate would have been 79% white, like 2000, and weighted their samples accordingly.

[Benj]

Well exit polls did show that Obama won the 9% of people who decided in the last week by about 9 points IIRC. So a case could be made that those late deciders could have broken for Romney. However indications were that Obama had momentum starting after the 3rd debate.

As I predicted before the election, Sandy was going to enter GOP lore as the reason they lost their momentum just like the OBL tape is part of Dem lore for why Kerry lost his mo. In reality, both were likely on their way to defeat.

People who claim to have decided in the few days before the election almost always favor Democratic candidates more than the general population for whatever reason. I wouldn't take this to mean that Democrats actually win late deciders, just that Democrats are more likely to claim to be late deciders. (Personally, I think less than 1% actually decide in the last few days barring some enormous black swan event. People just like to claim to be undecided to pollsters, a kind of moderate heroism.)

[minionofmidas]

A once great pollster on their last legs. Maybe they'll survive by becoming a Republican house pollster.

[Chaddyr23]

That explains R+6 in FL, right?!

[milhouse24]

The News coverage stopped for Romney, he also stopped giving interviews on TV which I also think hurt him. 

Obama being on the News everyday for a week really helped stop whatever momentum Romney had. 

I think the race would have been closer.  But Romney also tried to play it too safe after the 1st debate, instead of going all out everywhere.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Millhouse, Romney's polling momentum stopped in mid-October, well before Sandy even formed, let alone hit the Mid-Atlantic region.  Nor was Obama's mildly improving trajectory in the polls affected up or down by Sandy.

Romney got suckered by the primaries in which he was able to come from behind to win multiple times.  But he did so against opponents who were not as well known by the voters as Obama was and who were not able to match his ad blitz.  Romney's repeated weak showings in the primaries in which he did not bury his opponents in binders full of ads was one reason I opposed him in the primaries, tho certainly not the only one.

[SPQR]

I thought about Mason-Dixon immediately after Obama was shown leading in Florida.

What did they say? "It's not worth it to poll it again,Romney has already won"?
So many epic fails for this election...

[Devils30]

Pathetic, he didn't get a 7 point swing from Sandy. It was 1-2% at most and most polls had a small surge on Tuesday 10/30, before the storms impact was fully realized. Sure, Obama got a bump in Jersey.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I knew many people were going to blame their utter failure on Sandy. With Obama winning Florida (you know, the State they weren't gonna poll because Romney had it in the bag), Mason-Dixon is now officially a joke.

[Reds4]

To say that Mason-Dixon has egg on their faces is a major understatement right now. Horrible effort by them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So it turned Florida from safe Romney into an Obama win? Mason-Dixon has reached troll status.