Meanwhile in Southern West Virginia

[minionofmidas]

Romney/Manchin voters are a plurality of the electorate in many counties, outnumbering both Romney/Raese and Obama/Manchin voters even when assuming no Obama/Raese voters whatsoever.
Discuss.

[Seattle]

Yeah, Mingo County voted 71% for Romney and about 67% for Manchin, talk about crazy differences.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, wow. At this pace, I wonder for how much time democrats will be able to win there: this is shaping up to be the next Alabama and Mississippi.

[Niemeyerite]

Yeah, wow. At this pace, I wonder for how much time democrats will be able to win there: this is shaping up to be the next Alabama and Mississippi.

Considering WV was less republican than those states in 2008 and a lot more in 2012, once Manchin and Tomblin retire/die, and Rockefeller is defeated (he can still retire or win the race with all the money he has, but I think he loses) WV will not have a democrat senator or governor again, for, at least, 40 years That if you consider Manchin a democrat.

[adma]

If HRC rather than Obama won the Dem nomination in '08, it'd be less of a terminally lost cause.  (Take that as a hint on future strategy.)

[Indy Texas]

Yeah, wow. At this pace, I wonder for how much time democrats will be able to win there: this is shaping up to be the next Alabama and Mississippi.

Considering WV was less republican than those states in 2008 and a lot more in 2012, once Manchin and Tomblin retire/die, and Rockefeller is defeated (he can still retire or win the race with all the money he has, but I think he loses) WV will not have a democrat senator or governor again, for, at least, 40 years That if you consider Manchin a democrat.

How has John Davison "Jay" Rockefeller IV managed to have such a long, successful political career in WVa? Just his last name makes him seem all wrong for that place.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If HRC rather than Obama won the Dem nomination in '08, it'd be less of a terminally lost cause.  (Take that as a hint on future strategy.)

Why trying to retake places where we're falling into irrelevancy, instead of building on our recent gains (which has been the successful Obama strategy)?

[Blue3]

Honestly, I think we all know what the real problem is for Obama in Appalachia and the Upper South...

[bgwah]

It would be interesting if a state party severed itself from its national counterpart, sort of like some provincial parties have done in Canada.

[morgieb]

Honestly, I think we all know what the real problem is for Obama in Appalachia and the Upper South...

That's too simple to say that Obama lost hard in Appalachia/Upper South because he's black. The fact that the coal economy is also on life support hurt too. Even white guys lost out here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Posted this in another thread:

Unfortunate, but not entirely surprising; plenty of reasons to vote against Obama (of course not all of these are what we might think of as entirely legit, but then electoral analysis should shy away from passing moral judgment), and essentially none to vote for him - other than the 'D' next to his name. And it's clear that that doesn't really matter that much these days, which is quite a remarkable cultural shift and worthy of comment in itself.

Also, when voters think a party or a candidate is hostile to them, they tend to be hostile to said party and/or candidate. I think the intensity of that in this case is quite clear. The question is whether this is just a reaction to Obama's obvious indifference combined with his obvious Otherness (which produces an image of hostility) or whether it's something that will now be held against the entire national Democratic party; Manchin, Tomblin and Rahall were all re-elected, so the state Dem brand has some life in it for now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Honestly, I think we all know what the real problem is for Obama in Appalachia and the Upper South...

That's too simple to say that Obama lost hard in Appalachia/Upper South because he's black. The fact that the coal economy is also on life support hurt too. Even white guys lost out here.

It also can't logically explain the swing from 2008 to 2012.

[adma]

If HRC rather than Obama won the Dem nomination in '08, it'd be less of a terminally lost cause.  (Take that as a hint on future strategy.)

Why trying to retake places where we're falling into irrelevancy, instead of building on our recent gains (which has been the successful Obama strategy)?

Why not work both ends?  At least from a "now that we've conquered one, let's tackle the other" standpoint...

[minionofmidas]

It would be interesting if a state party severed itself from its national counterpart, sort of like some provincial parties have done in Canada.

Which is what the WVa and Ar, and to a lesser degree the Ky and Okla state parties have in fact been doing. Won't work for Congressional races; doesn't in Canada, either.

Posted this in another thread:

Unfortunate, but not entirely surprising; plenty of reasons to vote against Obama (of course not all of these are what we might think of as entirely legit, but then electoral analysis should shy away from passing moral judgment), and essentially none to vote for him - other than the 'D' next to his name. And it's clear that that doesn't really matter that much these days, which is quite a remarkable cultural shift and worthy of comment in itself.

Also, when voters think a party or a candidate is hostile to them, they tend to be hostile to said party and/or candidate. I think the intensity of that in this case is quite clear. The question is whether this is just a reaction to Obama's obvious indifference combined with his obvious Otherness (which produces an image of hostility) or whether it's something that will now be held against the entire national Democratic party; Manchin, Tomblin and Rahall were all re-elected, so the state Dem brand has some life in it for now.

The issue that some people have trouble wrapping their head around is "yes, I can see that (heck, I personally feel a faint echo of it in my own breast. Not on the "otherness" aspect, obviously) but why the hell the Republicans. What, exactly, has Mitt Moneybags Romney to offer to these people? Why switch to a party you should not, logically, like?"

[Jackson]

They weren't voting for Romney. They were voting against Obama.

[bgwah]

It would be interesting if a state party severed itself from its national counterpart, sort of like some provincial parties have done in Canada.

Which is what the WVa and Ar, and to a lesser degree the Ky and Okla state parties have in fact been doing. Won't work for Congressional races; doesn't in Canada, either.

Meh, it's not official though.

[Miles]

Here's WV-03 by county in 2012:

- Manchin and Romney each got 65.43% in the district, which I guess was just coincidental.

- Rahall performed pretty poorly relative to the others; other than Obama, the only other Democrat that did worse was McGraw, who narrowly lost statewide.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The area that Tomblin represented in the State Senate is especially stark in the difference between Obama/Romney and literally every other race. Wow.

[Vosem]

The area that Tomblin represented in the State Senate is especially stark in the difference between Obama/Romney and literally every other race. Wow.

In 2011, Tomblin won his home county, Logan County, 92-8. (This year, it was slightly narrow; 79-20-1). The 1 is for Jesse Johnson, Mountain Party, which I believe is affiliated with the national Greens.

Romney won Logan County 69-29-1-1 (1 each for the Randall Terry, Constitution, and Gary Johnson, Libertarian).

[old timey villain]

It would be interesting if a state party severed itself from its national counterpart, sort of like some provincial parties have done in Canada.

Which is what the WVa and Ar, and to a lesser degree the Ky and Okla state parties have in fact been doing. Won't work for Congressional races; doesn't in Canada, either.

Posted this in another thread:

Unfortunate, but not entirely surprising; plenty of reasons to vote against Obama (of course not all of these are what we might think of as entirely legit, but then electoral analysis should shy away from passing moral judgment), and essentially none to vote for him - other than the 'D' next to his name. And it's clear that that doesn't really matter that much these days, which is quite a remarkable cultural shift and worthy of comment in itself.

Also, when voters think a party or a candidate is hostile to them, they tend to be hostile to said party and/or candidate. I think the intensity of that in this case is quite clear. The question is whether this is just a reaction to Obama's obvious indifference combined with his obvious Otherness (which produces an image of hostility) or whether it's something that will now be held against the entire national Democratic party; Manchin, Tomblin and Rahall were all re-elected, so the state Dem brand has some life in it for now.

The issue that some people have trouble wrapping their head around is "yes, I can see that (heck, I personally feel a faint echo of it in my own breast. Not on the "otherness" aspect, obviously) but why the hell the Republicans. What, exactly, has Mitt Moneybags Romney to offer to these people? Why switch to a party you should not, logically, like?"

The issue wasn't what Mitt Romney would do to help them, it's what they think Obama has done to hurt them. It appears that they blame him for the decline in the coal industry. Again, not a vote for Mitt, but a big angry bitter vote against Obama.

[Miles]

The area that Tomblin represented in the State Senate is especially stark in the difference between Obama/Romney and literally every other race. Wow.

In 2011, Tomblin won his home county, Logan County, 92-8. (This year, it was slightly narrow; 79-20-1). The 1 is for Jesse Johnson, Mountain Party, which I believe is affiliated with the national Greens.

Romney won Logan County 69-29-1-1 (1 each for the Randall Terry, Constitution, and Gary Johnson, Libertarian).

Boone County, which was also in Tomblin's district, had the most severe swing in the state (42 points against Obama). Obama carried it by a pretty comfortable 54/43 in 2008 but it swung to 64/33 Romney.

[Miles]

Actually, it looks like Boone, WV was Obama's worst county nationally in terms of its swing. None of the counties in KY or UT swung more to Romney.

Knott, KY is in second place (39.7 points) followed by McDowell, WV for third (38.4 points).

[minionofmidas]

Comparing the Rahall and Tomblin maps, it seems Rahall did worse in the heart of Southern West Virginia but better along the districts northeastern and northwestern edges?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If HRC rather than Obama won the Dem nomination in '08, it'd be less of a terminally lost cause.  (Take that as a hint on future strategy.)

Why trying to retake places where we're falling into irrelevancy, instead of building on our recent gains (which has been the successful Obama strategy)?

Why not work both ends?  At least from a "now that we've conquered one, let's tackle the other" standpoint...

Strategically, "securing" VA and CO while keeping a hold on PA is much more important than opening new fronts. Even if you want to open new fronts, it would be smarter to target States where demographics are working for us (expanding our map to FL and NC, starting to make GA and AZ competitive, trying to make a few inroads in TX...) rather than States that are obviously lost.

[Miles]

Comparing the Rahall and Tomblin maps, it seems Rahall did worse in the heart of Southern West Virginia but better along the districts northeastern and northwestern edges?

Well, Snuffer was from Raliegh County, so I guess it made sense that he overperformed in the core area while Rahall had 3 decades plus of name rec to fall back on in the peripheral counties.