Meanwhile in Southern West Virginia

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Snuffer got snuffed.

[Miles]

This is Manchin's margins vs. Obama's:



Manchin ran the least ahead of Obama in Grant County, only 17%. He was the furthest ahead in Logan and Mingo, doing 90.5% and 90% better, respectively.

By CD:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You'd never think he's from where he is from that map, would you?

[JacobNC]

I think the situation in West Virginia is a bit misleading.  Obviously Obama is unpopular, but I don't know if the shift from a Democrat state to a Republican state is as catastrophic as people think.  If you look at the raw numbers, Romney only gained about 20,000 voters over McCain - he still got fewer votes than Bush did in WV in 2004.  Obama, on the other hand, lost about 70,000 voters.  It's likely most of these Democrats stayed home instead of casting votes for Romney.  This is also why Manchin underperformed somewhat (he was expected to get around 70% of the vote, based on polls.) I still think Hillary can play in West Virginia if she runs in 2016.

[RBH]

Comparing the Rahall and Tomblin maps, it seems Rahall did worse in the heart of Southern West Virginia but better along the districts northeastern and northwestern edges?

Well, Snuffer was from Raliegh County, so I guess it made sense that he overperformed in the core area while Rahall had 3 decades plus of name rec to fall back on in the peripheral counties.

Rahall percentages, Raleigh county/districtwide (county home of opponent)

2012: 41% / 54% (Raleigh)
2010: 48% / 56% (Mingo)
2008: 60% / 67% (Mercer)
2006: 66% / 69% (Cabell)
2004: 49% / 65% (Raleigh)
2002: 58% / 70% (Logan)
1998/2000: Rahall only opposed by a Libertarian
1996: Rahall unopposed
1994: 60% / 64% (Monroe)
1992: 62% / 66% (Monroe)
1990: 48% / 52% (Mercer)
1988: 52% / 61% (Mercer)
1986: 69% / 71% (Raleigh)
1984: 63% / 67% (Raleigh)
1982: 85% / 81% (Cabell)

So it takes going back to 1982 to find a time that Rahall did better in Raleigh v. a Republican than he fared in the district.