Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy?

[Torie]

Look at the map above. Yes, it assumes that Romney won Florida, Ohio and Virginia - states in which Obama's margin over Romney was less than his national margin.  (My numbers are current as of this morning.)  You see the problem right?  Let me help you some more with this, if you have not, by putting up this little chart I constructed, with all its pretty little cell colors for which I am so justly famous.



Romney still only has 266 electoral votes, and loses. To get to 269 electoral votes (where he wins in the House), Romney and the GOP needs if everything swings at the same rate, to get to a national vote total of 51.17% in order to carry the next closest state - rapidly browning and greening Colorado that is trending Dem at a brisk pace. The next state up assuming Colorado will move up the Dem scale in future election cycles, is yes, our favorite state, Pennsylvania. Team GOP picks that one up this time with a 51.39% margin.  That cell I have highlighted in blue. That is where the blue bias of the electoral college I think more or less sits for the next cycle, absent the Pubs dealing with their "brown problem."  

In short, the Reader's Digest answer to my question, is that yes, the Hispanics have essentially sent the Pubs into Electoral College bankruptcy.  The Pubs have more electoral college liabilities than assets, with the liability column having a margin over the assets column in percentage terms of 2.78%, 51.39% to 48.61%.  The Pubs need a Plan of Reorganization, and they need it NOW.

Oh yes, why is NH painted in green?  I am glad you asked. "Ironically," the precipitating cause of the Pub bankruptcy was not Hispanics themselves, it was the greening of New Hampshire. The Greens are not coming back to the GOP - ever. NH is gone. So NH is not a practicable Plan of Reorganization for the Pubs. They will need to deal with the browns. They may not like it, but they have no choice. It is either that, or becoming political bag ladies, walking the streets pandering for a few crumbs from some good hearted Dem from time to time. I don't think that will be good for their self esteem.

Thank you for listening.

[opebo]

Another way to phrase it is that racist whites (aka, 'pubbies' themselves) forced them into electoral college bankruptcy by alienating browns.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Our electoral lock will only strengthen if the GOP insists on alienating minorities at every turn.

[politicallefty]

As you mentioned, that assumes Florida goes Republican. Regardless of the final results in the state, it will trend Democratic this year. If you guys can't compete among Hispanics, Florida will be very problematic as well (especially since Obama won the Cuban vote this year). There's pretty much no realistic path at all for Republicans without Florida. That's not to mention that the Hispanic population is growing rapidly in Florida, as with the country as a whole.

There are far too many racists and hardliners in the GOP base right now. I think you can only being to solve the GOP problem here when you figure how to deal with them. It seems like the establishment realizes this (as Bush and Rove did when he was in office), but they are at the mercy of the base. Any reasonable comprehensive immigration reform measures will be quickly condemned by the Tea Party and the like as amnesty.

I think the whole Akin/Mourdock debacle is related to this. If you keep nominating extremists, whole segments of the electorate will be turned off. The problem with those types are that their apparent gaffes are really spoken truths about their beliefs. You may have your Bushes and Rubios (particularly on immigration issues), but they are not in the majority of the party and they don't control it.

[Likely Voter]

Our electoral lock will only strengthen if the GOP insists on alienating minorities at every turn.

The GOP had convinced themselves that  brown and black people voting was some kind fad that would go away like the pet rock. Yesterday they were acting all surprised that the white vote went down, even though it always does. The Romney campaign strategy of winning with 60% of the white vote was built on the assumption that the white vote would at least stay steady, when there was no empirical evidence it would. When polls kept showing D+x they kept insisting that all these brown Dems would never vote. They had no evidence, it was just Reagan era nostalgia.

[Torie]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

[Likely Voter]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

While it is convenient to dismiss blacks and hispanics as a bunch of poor moochers, how then to explain why Asians voted for Obama at an even higher rate than Hispanics?  Are they just a bunch of 'takers' too?

[opebo]

...it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

I just came to precisely the same conclusion as the article you linked, in another thread: If we're speaking about Hispanics as a whole here, I really don't think they would identify with your agenda or philosophy - they're just too economically and socially disadvantaged.

What you have to do is let the Democrats win for 30-40 years, and, as they did in the 30s-70s, they'll make all these darker people solidly 'middle class'.  Then you can fool them with the Horatio Alger nonsense.

[dspNY]

And it all started in California with Prop 187, that's why Torie's message is incredibly important for his party...the GOP went the Prop 187 route over the last two decades and the demographic time bomb blew up in their faces on November 6. The Republican "Hispanic problem" started in Torie's home state

A sitting President mired with an almost 8% unemployment rate, 23 million out of work and major problems with working-class whites will win by almost 3% and by 332-206 in the EC when all the votes are counted due to Obama creating an almost unassailable coalition. Only FDR won reelection with a worse economy.

To put a band-aid on the Hispanic issues, it's a flat out guarantee that Rubio will be on the ticket, in some way, shape or form in 2016 for the GOP because they know they will go extinct if they cannot resolve their "brown problem". The fine balance they'll have to draw involves getting their nativist voting base on board with immigration reform, because most of those types fear that the Hispanics will take their jobs

[Beet]

This is a good analysis of Romney's problems in the 2012 election, but that election is over. Although after almost every election, analysts tend to act as if the most recent result can be extrapolated into the future, that is not the case. The analysts tend to underestimate the impact of the candidates themselves. Depending on which candidate each party runs, the map could look very different. Just look at the difference between the performances of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in West Virginia. Not every Democrat will be favored in states such as Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire, which seemed to like Obama.

Incidentally, I wish the best for Republicans in any efforts to include people of color. Racial polarization in politics is bad news. There are some minorities who are naturally conservative and shouldn't be held back from voting GOP because of real or perceived racism on the part of the GOP. For instance, while I was out canvassing last month, one black lady told me could not vote for Obama because his position on gay marriage, she explained she was a "disciple" and would be called to answer in the next life if she voted for him. While I couldn't disagree more with this lady, she should have been a Republican voter. Instead she likely did not vote. A lot of blacks are socially conservative. Why else would gay marriage only pass 52-48 in Maryland. These should be Republican voters. Conversely, Appalachian white voters should be more Democratic than they have been at the presidential level in the past four years.

[Sasquatch]

If the GOP haven't made inroads with the Hispanic community by the time Arizona and Texas are swing states, they will have screwed themselves over for decades electorally.

[Ljube]

Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

[Torie]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

While it is convenient to dismiss blacks and hispanics as a bunch of poor moochers, how then to explain why Asians voted for Obama at an even higher rate than Hispanics?  Are they just a bunch of 'takers' too?

Each ethnic group is different. Blacks vote 90% Dem no matter how rich they get. That is not likely to change anytime soon. There is just too much history there, and their lives still remind them from time to time that they are still to some extent "the other."  Hispanics I think are driven by economics - heck given their large families, and low income, they are financially speaking up against the wall - and do depend on government largess to make ends meet, and it's still hard - very hard.

Asians however, swing more. They are been known in CA to give 40% of their votes to Pubs. Sure the exit poll this time, if it is right (remember it is a very small subsample, so the margin of error is higher), has the Pub percentage down to 27% or something. But if the Pubs get over their color problem (it is more muted with Asians anyway, unless they're South Asian anyway, and then the Muslim thing comes up too), and their hostility to secularism and cosmopolitanism, I would think that Asians would be open to the Pub approach  to economic management (at least when the approach is sensible rather than innumerate (Asians tend to be numerate)) - call it that dirty word around here "neo-liberalism," or whatever. They're professionals and businessmen, and have relative high SES, which SES is moving ever higher. Asians to the extent they are not already, will be members of the American bourgeoisie in short.

Just my crystal ball of course. I could be totally delusional about all of this. Thus I appreciate we all discussing it, and bouncing around ideas. Thanks.

[dspNY]

Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

If they do that they'll have to moderate their stances on unions and accept that unions can engage in collective bargaining, otherwise their message will go nowhere

[opebo]

Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

I agree this will be their natural inclination - basically trying to apply the Mississippi/Louisiana situation to the US as a whole.  

However, it still puts them at a slight disadvantage if Georgia and Arizona begin to break lose (about as likely by 2020 as the GOP taking over Michigan, eh what?)

Even if the GOP could break lose the Dem hold on the 'rust belt' (or white working class belt) before they lose GA and AZ to swing status, it still leaves them somewhat behind (and that's not even mentioning that the upper midwest/PA will be losing electoral votes in 2020 while GA and AZ will be gaining):

[politicus]

Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

A. Eventually Texas becomes a swing state so the GOP needs to change their immigration policies sooner or later.

B. Even if they could pull off your plan they would be gaing in states that loses EV and losing states with growing EV numbers.

[Ljube]

Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

If they do that they'll have to moderate their stances on unions and accept that unions can engage in collective bargaining, otherwise their message will go nowhere

Support for private sector unions, but opposition to public sector unions.

[Ljube]

Perhaps the answer to the problems the GOP is facing could be running up margins with the whites, particularly blue collar whites who didn't show up to vote this time and who used to vote Democrat. There is no real reason why white working class would continue to vote for the Democrats in the next election.

Perhaps the GOP could forego NM, CO, FL and VA for a more populist message in PA, MI, WI and MN?
That would have to be a strong anti illegal immigration message.

A. Eventually Texas becomes a swing state so the GOP needs to change their immigration policies sooner or later.

B. Even if they could pull off your plan they would be gaing in states that loses EV and losing states with growing EV numbers.

My proposal is not the real solution. It’s just a temporary fix for the current problem.
Real solutions take time and this proposal is buying time.

[Ljube]

Opebo, North Carolina and Georgia will probably remain Republican because the whites will adopt the mentality of the besieged and start voting like Mississippi/Louisiana whites.

[dspNY]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

[anvi]

So, my first question is: how might the electoral situation you describe, Torie, shift if the GOP had adopted the immigration stance of George W. Bush?  

[opebo]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

Exactly - NC has influx of whites.  GA influx of blacks.  The black vote will have to reach a much higher percentage in GA.  But we're on the way in both - GA currently only 55% white.. not that far to go..

[Torie]

So, my first question is: how might the electoral situation you describe, Torie, shift if the GOP had adopted the immigration stance of George W. Bush?  

Maybe shift the needle a bit to the GOP, but if you believe it is mostly about economics, then while that Dubya "compassionate conservative" palliative might have kept Colorado within the neutral PVI zone by being more empathetic to the Hispanic angst of they, or those they hold dear, living in the shadows of the twilight zone, longer term the metric holds. It may be that the Dems have the whip hand unless and until their economic approach can more definitively be proven to be truncating long term growth, and/or until these voters decide that the teachers' unions are really screwing their kids' futures - or something.

[memphis]

Income is pretty irrelavant to all voting. Blacks overwhelmingly vote Dem. Jews and Browns vote solidly but somewhat less Dem. And whites vote strongly but not overwhelmingly GOP. The conservatives have very much painted themselves into a corner, but I feel certain they can find a new wedge issue that will have half of America clutching their pearls. They always do.
That's the thing about Republicans. They are master salesmen. It's who they are. Business and what not. Most likely it will be something that they Dems think of. Dems are innovaters. Creative thinkers. Key example being Jimmy Carter and the nutters. Brilliant, if very sleazy, idea. Get God on your side. Go for the full Elmer Gantry. And then Reagan demolished Jimmy at his own game.
What the GOP can't do is keep looking backward. Just for the lulz, I like to listen to conservative Christian radio. It's far more about politics than it is about religion, but I digress. There is a constant appeal to a mythic past. The Founders! And how much they loved Jesus! And Reagan! And how much he loved Jesus! Republicans need a fresh face and forward thinking. Call themselves something new. Which is what was so brilliant about the Tea Party. Same old product, new name. It can mean all things to all people. If browns hate the Republicans fine. We're not Republicans. We're something else.

[freepcrusher]

well one of the theories I've thought of is that the GOP attempts to get the black vote to pre-Goldwater levels by trying to do scare tactics that the browns are taking their jobs.