Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy?

[old timey villain]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

The white GOP vote in Georgia has reached its limit as well. Alabama and Mississippi white voters vote so overwhelmingly GOP because almost all white voters are rural, religious and conservative. Metro Atlanta has a growing base of white liberals and moderates, who, like whites in the research triangle, are not as susceptible to race/culture war tactics. Fortunately for Democrats, that's where literally all the growth in Georgia will be more the next few decades.

Essentially, the GOP has maxed out the white vote in the rural areas, but the fast growing suburban areas will be tougher for them to dominate in the future.

[milhouse24]

GW Bush did fine with Latino voters.

Romney's problem was he was just "too white" and grew up with a Mormon religion that didn't allow Blacks.  He never reached out to Latino voters and never changed his position on Immigration.  

Romney actually could have won if it were 2008, 2004, or 2000 with just the white vote.

But now, any party that doesn't have a Hispanic on the ticket will lose.  

One of the reasons that Obama did well is that Lighter skin blacks do better with Hispanic and white voters, than darker skin blacks.  Since he is biracial, Obama's skin color is similar to Hispanic voters.  

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think this is a good analysis, but I think misses the bigger factor that Tories, perhaps, doesn't understand or at least, doesn't empathise with. While pigeon-holing voters is a fraught thing to do, a little bit, especially for the GOP looking ahead, should be undertaken.

I think the missing factor is cultural identification - meaning, you personally feel a deeper connection to the party than merely 'self-interest'. I mean, Torie is a pretty key example of someone who appreciates the fact that the GOP's economic policies work for him and so votes on those to the exclusion of the other 'problematic' policy positions. But overall, I wouldn't identify him, or his cohort as someone who culturally identifies with the GOP. Now, this is the problem - those who do 'culturally identify' with the GOP are increasingly on the edge of society, they're older, whiter and socially conservative.

If you look at the exit polling from last night, and the bulls*** we've had to listen to from the right over the past six months, it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the country and not only where it's heading, but where it ALEADY is. Increasing numbers of people are pro-choice, supportive of gay marriage, reforming immigration laws... So let's look at this from the most cliche-ridden position possible. Most of those who support the Democratic party, do so, even against their own perceived interests, because they feel the Democratic party is on the right side of history, and the GOP has, if anything, regressed on those issues over the past 4-6 years. And, while the economy is important, the idea the GOPers have that, 'well those issues aren't more important than the economy' is just DEAD WRONG. Leaving them more exposed and increasingly reliant on a small of die-hard voters, generally focused on on two regions of the country, with a wealthy set of backers who hold their noses on social issues and essentially the stars aligning.

What should be MOST alarming to the GOP for the future, is something that has been evident since the 1980s at least, when turnout goes up, their chances of winning goes down. The reaction by the GOP when faced with this demographic time-bomb has been on par with a kamikaze pilot, instead of working on expanding their appeal to those expanding demographics, they've huddled down in their bunker working on trying to deter turnout on the other side and doubling-down on the policies that turned those groups against them in the first place, this is Latinos, women, Asian-Americans, young voters...

From a purely political-science perspective... it's utterly terrifying for their future prospects. What's the bet their argument in 2016 will be, "well, it was obviously a huge personal vote for Obama, once he's gone, those people won't come out" They'll try to avoid doing anything, because the Civil War in the party would be bloody and terrifying.

[old timey villain]

GW Bush did fine with Latino voters.

Romney's problem was he was just "too white" and grew up with a Mormon religion that didn't allow Blacks.  He never reached out to Latino voters and never changed his position on Immigration.  

Romney actually could have won if it were 2008, 2004, or 2000 with just the white vote.

But now, any party that doesn't have a Hispanic on the ticket will lose.  

One of the reasons that Obama did well is that Lighter skin blacks do better with Hispanic and white voters, than darker skin blacks.  Since he is biracial, Obama's skin color is similar to Hispanic voters.  

dafuq?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

GW Bush did fine with Latino voters.

Romney's problem was he was just "too white" and grew up with a Mormon religion that didn't allow Blacks.  He never reached out to Latino voters and never changed his position on Immigration.  

Romney actually could have won if it were 2008, 2004, or 2000 with just the white vote.

But now, any party that doesn't have a Hispanic on the ticket will lose.  

One of the reasons that Obama did well is that Lighter skin blacks do better with Hispanic and white voters, than darker skin blacks.  Since he is biracial, Obama's skin color is similar to Hispanic voters.  

I'm sure you hear this several times a day, you're an absolute creep.

[ProudModerate2]

One of the reasons that Obama did well is that Lighter skin blacks do better with Hispanic and white voters, than darker skin blacks.  Since he is biracial, Obama's skin color is similar to Hispanic voters.  

milhouse24,
I am not a moderator, but be careful with your words please.
Your comment above is borderline racist.

[freepcrusher]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

The white GOP vote in Georgia has reached its limit as well. Alabama and Mississippi white voters vote so overwhelmingly GOP because almost all white voters are rural, religious and conservative. Metro Atlanta has a growing base of white liberals and moderates, who, like whites in the research triangle, are not as susceptible to race/culture war tactics. Fortunately for Democrats, that's where literally all the growth in Georgia will be more the next few decades.

Essentially, the GOP has maxed out the white vote in the rural areas, but the fast growing suburban areas will be tougher for them to dominate in the future.

signed,
Larry McDonald
Newt Gingrich
Tom Price
Phil Gingrey
Bobby Franklin
Ralph Reed
John Linder
Lynn Westmoreland

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I agree with you Torie. I made this point earlier than the Republicans lose even in a 50/50 election, so we are at a structural disadvantage at present, and it will only get worse unless changes within the party are made. I am not advocating that we just need to "become like Democrats," but we should at least attempt to cut the rhetoric of anti-gay, anti-women and anti-immigrant that we have been talking about for the last 4 years. Who can be the biggest hardass when it comes to closing our border and rounding up illegals to throw them out does not resinate with the majority anymore, as many of us see America as a place for opportunity that should welcome people within the country.

It isn't too late for the Republicans to change their tone and how they approach policy making, but it will take time, and it will take ridding the party of the Tea Party nuts that think we must become bigger hardasses to win future elections.

This country is changing, and those who do not adapt will fall by the waste side. The GOP leadership knows it. It is a matter of everyone else realizing it too.

[Jackson]

Why would the Republicans stop campaigning on issues that most of their party agrees with?

[LastVoter]

I think this is a good analysis, but I think misses the bigger factor that Tories, perhaps, doesn't understand or at least, doesn't empathise with. While pigeon-holing voters is a fraught thing to do, a little bit, especially for the GOP looking ahead, should be undertaken.

I think the missing factor is cultural identification - meaning, you personally feel a deeper connection to the party than merely 'self-interest'. I mean, Torie is a pretty key example of someone who appreciates the fact that the GOP's economic policies work for him and so votes on those to the exclusion of the other 'problematic' policy positions. But overall, I wouldn't identify him, or his cohort as someone who culturally identifies with the GOP. Now, this is the problem - those who do 'culturally identify' with the GOP are increasingly on the edge of society, they're older, whiter and socially conservative.

If you look at the exit polling from last night, and the bulls*** we've had to listen to from the right over the past six months, it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the country and not only where it's heading, but where it ALEADY is. Increasing numbers of people are pro-choice, supportive of gay marriage, reforming immigration laws... So let's look at this from the most cliche-ridden position possible. Most of those who support the Democratic party, do so, even against their own perceived interests, because they feel the Democratic party is on the right side of history, and the GOP has, if anything, regressed on those issues over the past 4-6 years. And, while the economy is important, the idea the GOPers have that, 'well those issues aren't more important than the economy' is just DEAD WRONG. Leaving them more exposed and increasingly reliant on a small of die-hard voters, generally focused on on two regions of the country, with a wealthy set of backers who hold their noses on social issues and essentially the stars aligning.

What should be MOST alarming to the GOP for the future, is something that has been evident since the 1980s at least, when turnout goes up, their chances of winning goes down. The reaction by the GOP when faced with this demographic time-bomb has been on par with a kamikaze pilot, instead of working on expanding their appeal to those expanding demographics, they've huddled down in their bunker working on trying to deter turnout on the other side and doubling-down on the policies that turned those groups against them in the first place, this is Latinos, women, Asian-Americans, young voters...

From a purely political-science perspective... it's utterly terrifying for their future prospects. What's the bet their argument in 2016 will be, "well, it was obviously a huge personal vote for Obama, once he's gone, those people won't come out" They'll try to avoid doing anything, because the Civil War in the party would be bloody and terrifying.

Polnut this is too optimistic, if the white voters agreed with the democratic positions than why did they swing to the GOP?

[SPC]

Might the GOP try to double down on this electorate with a Rubio/Martinez ticket? That helps with the Hispanic problem, but doesn't help assuage the libertarian wing that fears a return of the neocons. If Rand Paul had a similar electoral appeal to his father, he would perform well with Hispanics and moderates, but he seems to have crafted an image as a 'conservative' that would not go over well with those groups. Christie has the base problem and would have to bend over backwards to make sure they turn out, and thus alienating moderates (not unlike the last two elections.) All in all, the GOP seems to be in the midst of a three-way battle that is anchoring their electoral success.

[Torie]

Well the white secularists, shall we call them, are another, more systemic issue that is less about the electoral college Dem bias vis a vis the popular vote, than the popular vote itself.  White secularists are in two groups perhaps, the Greens and the non-Green more business oriented or cost-benefit sensitive secularists, where "the planet" is not a religion, or a passion, but just another problem to work through pragmatically. The GOP can't get the Greens, because their approach clashes with the core of Pub economic orthodoxy, or anything in the market oriented factor in the economic externalities but no more adjacent neighborhoods.  However, if the culture wars were dialed back, the GOP presumably can cut into the pragmatic secularists.

Again however, the culture wars seem to me to be more of a long term loser for the Pubs rather than both a short term and a long term source of dysfunction presented by the Hispanics. If the culture wars end now, I am not sure psephologically, that is a net plus for the Pubs right out of the box. There goes the white working class as an offset perhaps, along with some anti abortion higher SES hard liners, who are otherwise sympathetic to many Dem economic positions.  

[ag]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

Alas, I am afraid it's not the matter of SES or of economics at all. I haven't seen any evidence to show that, as Hispanics go up the scale, they become less Dem. Even Cubans are now not at all solidly Republican. It's the Jewish thing. Rich Jews are not voting Republican - the ones who are are the Russian and the Orthodox (and these are not very high up). Same w/ Hispanics. The Republican party has chosen to alienate that electorate by exhibiting open prejudice against Hispanics - tough luck, they are there to stay.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Another way to phrase it is that racist whites (aka, 'pubbies' themselves) forced them into electoral college bankruptcy by alienating browns.

Love your blunt honesty, opebo.

[ag]

Opebo, North Carolina and Georgia will probably remain Republican because the whites will adopt the mentality of the besieged and start voting like Mississippi/Louisiana whites.

Georgia - quite likely. NC - not so much. Too many carpetbaggers, and they have no reason to feel besieged. They are on the same side as the blacks, electorally at least.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Opebo, North Carolina and Georgia will probably remain Republican because the whites will adopt the mentality of the besieged and start voting like Mississippi/Louisiana whites.

Georgia - quite likely. NC - not so much. Too many carpetbaggers, and they have no reason to feel besieged. They are on the same side as the blacks, electorally at least.

So most carpetbaggers in NC vote Democratic? Surely there are a good number of Republicans among them?

[Horus]

I thought the one saving grace for GOP appeal to minorities might have came from Mia Love winning in UT-04 (possibly also Vernon Parker in AZ-09) and Republicans gaining more minority members. Not only did they lose, so did Allen West. Now their caucus unbelievably has even less diversity.

[Ljube]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

Alas, I am afraid it's not the matter of SES or of economics at all. I haven't seen any evidence to show that, as Hispanics go up the scale, they become less Dem. Even Cubans are now not at all solidly Republican. It's the Jewish thing. Rich Jews are not voting Republican - the ones who are are the Russian and the Orthodox (and these are not very high up). Same w/ Hispanics. The Republican party has chosen to alienate that electorate by exhibiting open prejudice against Hispanics - tough luck, they are there to stay.

Here’s a poll done by Latino Decisions.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Tracker-toplines-week-10.pdf


And here are my comments, still valid:

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Bottom line: It’s the economy, stupid. How I perceive the economy and how they perceive the economy are two worlds. That’s why I don’t understand it.

Bottom line 2: The GOP needs a compassionate conservative to win the Hispanic vote. Immigration reform is not a must, just some progress in that area.

[ag]

During the entire period of polling, between 37% and 51% named immigration the most important issue. I don't know how you can read this as anything but a very forceful statement that this is super-important.

Anyway, it's not so much immigration reform, but why it is not adopted. People do feel that the reason for Republican opposition is xenophobia. It is hard to ask a Jew to vote for an anti-semite. It's no different here.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Again however, the culture wars seem to me to be more of a long term loser for the Pubs rather than both a short term and a long term source of dysfunction presented by the Hispanics. If the culture wars end now, I am not sure psephologically, that is a net plus for the Pubs right out of the box. There goes the white working class as an offset perhaps, along with some anti abortion higher SES hard liners, who are otherwise sympathetic to many Dem economic positions.  

Most of those people don't vote Republican to begin with, though. The GOP's socially conservative base is in the middle to upper middle class white exurbs-basically, small towns, cities, and residential developments  where the edge of rural America meets the urban fringe. Many such places are fast-growing, with lots of upwardly mobile (but not necessarily rich or even upper middle class-certainly not many truly comfortable) families.

In these outer suburban/exurban areas, increased affluence and educational attainment  are often new to the communities' residents. A place that was a small working-class town of 1,000 in 1990 may now be a sprawling "burb" of 22,000 in 2012. So it's not a big surprise that such areas vote Republican: they're white, hey are full of households that are married couples with children living at home, they are usually middle-class, upwardly mobile, but certainly not completely comfortable and vulnerable to economic downturns; and evangelical conservative Christianity is also a huge thing in such areas, especially the non-denominational "megachurches."

As for working-class whites who like the Democratic Party on economic issues, but vote Republican based on abortion, or guns, or gay marriage, etc.; I'm not entirely convinced that a substantial number of voters like that exists. Most of the working-class whites who vote Republican, in my experience, "buy into" the economic message of the GOP (though they frame it in a populist way: "Get Big Business and Big Government out of Washington! Throw the bums out!"). Then there those who, whether they admit it or not, vote GOP based on racism, or because of anger over illegal immigration, or because of (in the case of some rural working-class whites) resentment at the wealth and influence of the urban (Democratic) areas. But whatever the reason, I'm just not sure that it's strictly because of the "Culture Wars" that some (though, it must be stressed, not all) working-class whites vote Republican.

Btw, speaking of religion: Nowadays, the higher SES Americans are more likely to attend church than lower SES ones (at least, that's what I read in one study). So make of that what you will.

[Chartist]

Bottom line: It’s the economy, stupid. How I perceive the economy and how they perceive the economy are two worlds. That’s why I don’t understand it.

They don't like Republicans, so they blame Republicans for bad stuff. The same as with blacks, left liberals and other solid Democratic constituencies.

I think the reason Latinos don't vote Republican is legacy of the Southern Strategy. The GOP is dominated by old white men who like country music and don't like government programmes that benefit minorities. So long as Hispanics are a group that requires (and benefits from) affirmative action, they won't vote Republican.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Democratic coalition indeed proved extremely solid, with Latinos but also women, younger people, etc. The only way for the Republican party to survive is to reach out to them and abandon some of their craziest ideas. I'm sure they eventually will, but the madness of the Republican base might cost them 2016 for this reason.

[Sbane]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

The problem is in the margins, Torie. What the Republicans need to do is reduce that margin since winning the entire Hispanic vote is out of the question. At the same time they need to win the Asian vote by a decent margin as well. I think things like SB1070 impact the Asian vote in addition to the Hispanic vote since it makes the Republicans look xenophobic (and no, it's not just with South Asians. I am very interested in seeing results from Diamond Bar, Walnut, Irvine etc). Basically, the Republicans have to find a way to win the 75k+ crowd with at least a 20 point margin.

[memphis]

Bottom line: It’s the economy, stupid. How I perceive the economy and how they perceive the economy are two worlds. That’s why I don’t understand it.

Allow me to help you understand. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_George_W._Bush_administration

[old timey villain]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

The white GOP vote in Georgia has reached its limit as well. Alabama and Mississippi white voters vote so overwhelmingly GOP because almost all white voters are rural, religious and conservative. Metro Atlanta has a growing base of white liberals and moderates, who, like whites in the research triangle, are not as susceptible to race/culture war tactics. Fortunately for Democrats, that's where literally all the growth in Georgia will be more the next few decades.

Essentially, the GOP has maxed out the white vote in the rural areas, but the fast growing suburban areas will be tougher for them to dominate in the future.

signed,
Larry McDonald
Newt Gingrich
Tom Price
Phil Gingrey
Bobby Franklin
Ralph Reed
John Linder
Lynn Westmoreland

I probably should have said Atlanta and its inner suburbs. The outer suburbs are about as conservative as you can get. Also, they key word is "growing." It ain't there yet.