Have Hispanics Forced the GOP into Electoral College Bankruptcy?

[freepcrusher]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

The white GOP vote in Georgia has reached its limit as well. Alabama and Mississippi white voters vote so overwhelmingly GOP because almost all white voters are rural, religious and conservative. Metro Atlanta has a growing base of white liberals and moderates, who, like whites in the research triangle, are not as susceptible to race/culture war tactics. Fortunately for Democrats, that's where literally all the growth in Georgia will be more the next few decades.

Essentially, the GOP has maxed out the white vote in the rural areas, but the fast growing suburban areas will be tougher for them to dominate in the future.

signed,
Larry McDonald
Newt Gingrich
Tom Price
Phil Gingrey
Bobby Franklin
Ralph Reed
John Linder
Lynn Westmoreland

I probably should have said Atlanta and its inner suburbs. The outer suburbs are about as conservative as you can get. Also, they key word is "growing." It ain't there yet.

yep, there is a decent amount of jewish liberals in the DeKalb area If I recall.

[LastVoter]

Agree with you on Georgia, disagree on North Carolina, because the largest growing part of that state is in the Research Triangle, and it leans left

The white GOP vote in Georgia has reached its limit as well. Alabama and Mississippi white voters vote so overwhelmingly GOP because almost all white voters are rural, religious and conservative. Metro Atlanta has a growing base of white liberals and moderates, who, like whites in the research triangle, are not as susceptible to race/culture war tactics. Fortunately for Democrats, that's where literally all the growth in Georgia will be more the next few decades.

Essentially, the GOP has maxed out the white vote in the rural areas, but the fast growing suburban areas will be tougher for them to dominate in the future.

signed,
Larry McDonald
Newt Gingrich
Tom Price
Phil Gingrey
Bobby Franklin
Ralph Reed
John Linder
Lynn Westmoreland

I probably should have said Atlanta and its inner suburbs. The outer suburbs are about as conservative as you can get. Also, they key word is "growing." It ain't there yet.

I think the white urban growth is retarded by anti-transit policies of the overlords in Atlanta. If MARTA was expanded, GA could where Virginia was 4 years ago.

[old timey villain]

Exactly guys, there are lots of jewish people in suburban Atlanta as well as people employed by the many universities and the CDC. The problem is, the white liberal/moderate areas either get drawn into minority districts or outer suburban Republican districts.

Totally wish MARTA was expanded, but our legislature would rather die than let that happen, even as counties like Cobb and Gwinnett have expressed growing support for it.

BTW, Gwinnett swung to Obama again.

[Ljube]

During the entire period of polling, between 37% and 51% named immigration the most important issue. I don't know how you can read this as anything but a very forceful statement that this is super-important.

Anyway, it's not so much immigration reform, but why it is not adopted. People do feel that the reason for Republican opposition is xenophobia. It is hard to ask a Jew to vote for an anti-semite. It's no different here.

I think that immigration should be promoted because it increases economic growth. I think the only way to go is amnesty, citizenship for children of illegal immigrants and opening up for more immigration.

The best way to dispel fears that the Republicans are xenophobic is for Republicans to nominate a Hispanic in 2016.

[Wisconsin+17]

No, and I'll explain why.

The mood, at least out here - is a rather interesting one. People are standing up and taking notice that the reciprocal generosity is not returned. They have started to notice that while they are making efforts that not only are those efforts not returned, they are still loathed and hated? Why? For saying no. For not being santa claus for every want and desire.

What are we conservatives supposed to tell a family when their children are unable to find work, are unable to get a decent job, to buy a house, to move out and start their own families?

Are we supposed to tell them that the solution is more welfare?

The fiscal cliff is inevitable as the force of gravity. America has reached the point of no return.

What are democrats going to do when there is no more money for the welfare check?

[Brittain33]

What are democrats going to do when there is no more money for the welfare check?

Apparently the answer, when the money runs out, is to spend $2 trillion more on defense while cutting taxes even further.

[rob in cal]

     I'm still doubtful that immigration reform will make that much of a difference for getting a higher hispanic GOP vote.  Hispanics aren't high income, low tax supporting business people coming to the US because they see it as some beacon of free enterprise, by and large. Those that are, are probably in the GOP already.  For the GOP to become more like the Dems on a variety of other issues will attract more hispanics but that begs the question, why campaign as the conservative, smaller government party if you are trying to be a democratic lite alternative.
    Some things that may mitigate this are the steep recent decline in the US hispanic birth rate, and the very big decline in the Mexican birth rate.  If these trends continue, and if the Asian vote starts to come closer to the white vote as it may, things may stabilize a bit demographically for the GOP.

[Scabr]

The GOP's performance with Hispanics is not the major problem. Demographics are not our major problem. States like New Hampshire and Minnesota are overwhelmingly white and yet we still got our asses handed to us. Our problem is that people have just gotten too used to getting free stuff from the government and don't give a damn about how it is paid for. Just look at the Midwest.

[GMantis]

Well getting past the issue of the Pubs getting more comfortable with persons of color and all, and continuing the Pub cold shower theme here, it may be that if Hispanics don't move on up in Social Economic Status (SES) at a rather brisk pace, then the Pub malaise may be quite terminal - estan muertos.

If Hispanics vote for the Democratic party due to economic issues and care little about immigration and even less about the GOP's favorite social issues, then it doesn't really make sense for the Republicans to support immigration reform, as that would only increase the proportion of Democratic leaning Hispanics among the electorate. It would probably be better for the Republicans to take a strong stand against illegal immigration, which would of course hurt them among Hispanics but first, they have little to lose there (and little to gain, either) and secondly, would reduce their long term growth. Also, it would help the GOP with working class whites, poor support among whom played a significant role in their defeat in Midwestern states. Of course, not nominating out of touch plutocrats like Romney would also help here.

[rob in cal]

     Just looked at census figures on hispanic poverty and income levels.  Their poverty level is about the same as blacks (around 25%), but their household income is halfway between blacks and whites, but maybe thats just because they have bigger households.  White and Asian poverty levels is around 10%.  That 25% level is scary because there must be countless more who are close to it.   This doesn't look to me like a future 40-45% pro GOP voting bloc. 

[5280]

The GOP's performance with Hispanics is not the major problem. Demographics are not our major problem. States like New Hampshire and Minnesota are overwhelmingly white and yet we still got our asses handed to us. Our problem is that people have just gotten too used to getting free stuff from the government and don't give a damn about how it is paid for. Just look at the Midwest.

That will become an endless cycle, and the GOP will never win if people don't get off their feet and support themselves without government interference.

[TomC]

In a few election cycles, more Dugger kids will be of voting age, so help is on the way!

[Antonio the Sixth]

People like Magnet and Ben Kenobi are giving me high hopes for 2016.

[TJ in Oregon]

The GOP's performance with Hispanics is not the major problem. Demographics are not our major problem. States like New Hampshire and Minnesota are overwhelmingly white and yet we still got our asses handed to us. Our problem is that people have just gotten too used to getting free stuff from the government and don't give a damn about how it is paid for. Just look at the Midwest.

That will become an endless cycle, and the GOP will never win if people don't get off their feet and support themselves without government interference.

There's always going to need to be some give-and-take in this regard, as most remotely swingy voters recognize the need for some level of safety net and/or are largely indifferent to small government to be an end in and of itself. Rather, many people, myself included, want an efficient government that can deliver the most goods and services for the amount of money flowing through it and see a limitation on government's size to be based on the scarcity of resources and the question of whether said services could be more efficiently delivered by a market. I've failed to see a coherent message of that from the GOP lately and the Tea Party has done damage to an intellectually sound view of government on the right.

[White Cloud]

It's the social conservatism that's hurting the Republicans in national elections. The anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-evolution, pro-Bible stances, however you want to define it. It's alienating people in less religious parts of the country. Compare Gallup's survey of religiosity by state with the electoral map. Romney won the 19 most religious states.

www.gallup.com/poll/153479/mississippi-religious-state.aspx