2014 Senate retirements
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2012, 02:01:35 PM »

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2012, 03:34:28 PM »

Rounds also staged one hell of a come from behind victory in the 2002 Gubernatorial primary.

And for much of his term he did have Hoeven like numbers. But fine he is not Hoeven, we don't need Hoeven this time. Johanns would suffice. Tongue

On the flip side, he did sign a very restrictive abortion law that the state later voted to overturn. It should be noted that even while his abortion law went down to defeat, he was on the same ballot and got 61%. Did I mention that it was in 2006, as well? Tongue That said, I hope he sees that one coming in the wake of MO and IN and comes up with a solid and concise response because they will try to destroy him with that.


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tmthforu94
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« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2012, 03:41:57 PM »

West Virginia could be entertaining. If I had to make a guess, Rockefeller will likely retire. Democrats seem to think Goodwin will run to replace him, but I don't think that'll happen. I suspect Capito to finally make the jump to the Senate - she has seemed to be unwilling to take any sort of a risk, and 2014 should be a good year for Republicans. Plus, WV is becoming more and more GOP-friendly, so she should have a straight shot to the seat. In turn, I suspect Goodwin to make a run for her Congressional seat.

 
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Andrew1
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« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2012, 04:57:49 PM »

Lindsey Graham seems likely to face a primary challenge
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2012, 05:08:31 PM »

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.

She lost to Noem by two points in the worst Dem year in over a century.  2014 is almost certain to be far better for Democrats. 
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2012, 06:19:31 PM »

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.

She lost to Noem by two points in the worst Dem year in over a century.  2014 is almost certain to be far better for Democrats. 

Johnson survived 1994, which was almost as bad as 2010.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2012, 06:23:00 PM »

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.

She lost to Noem by two points in the worst Dem year in over a century.  2014 is almost certain to be far better for Democrats. 

Johnson survived 1994, which was almost as bad as 2010.

2010 was worse that 1994 everywhere outside of the Senate, governorships, and possibly statewide offices.  And Johnson didnt face a credible opponent and wasnt targeted by Republicans in 1994. 
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2012, 06:25:36 PM »

Just ask Ben Chandler about how surviving 2010 helped, Mr. Phips. Tongue


You harp on this but it is not the all and powerfull rule you think it is. It just means they are a strong candidate, it doesn't mean they are set for life. We knew Herseth-Sandlin was strong already so her being so close in 2010 doesn't really change the equation.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2012, 06:42:09 PM »

Just ask Ben Chandler about how surviving 2010 helped, Mr. Phips. Tongue



Throughout most of the south and border states, 2012 actually looked like a repeat of 2010.  Just look at the state legislatures and House seats.   The reason that it wasnt real dramatic is that Democrats had so little left to lose there. 
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politicallefty
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« Reply #34 on: November 10, 2012, 01:54:42 AM »

is it possible that President Obama can convince Johnson (SD) to stay put? He represents one of those seats that you have to milk for as long as possible to stay in the majority. If a better candidate can run in his place, then I would be fine with him retiring. But he's the only viable democrat left in South Dakota. I guess you could say Sandlin might be a good candidate but the jury is still out on her.

Rounds wasnt even all that popular when he left office.  He certainly isnt a Hoeven.  It would be at worst a tossup if Johnson stayed in.  

If Johnson does decide to hang it up, Herseth-Sandlin would be a very good recruit.  She only barely lost in 2010 wipeout and had high favorable ratings even after she was defeated. 

Sandlin lost to Noem, who strikes me as a flake. Rounds would be a much tougher person to face than Noem.

She lost in 2010 and only narrowly. I think she'd be a strong candidate for the Senate seat and could possibly be the only one to save it if Johnson retires. She's still quite young, but I also wouldn't be surprised if she tried to run for governor instead.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #35 on: November 10, 2012, 02:23:00 AM »

Mary Landrieu might decide it's just not worth the effort to run as a Democrat in Louisiana in 2014.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #36 on: November 10, 2012, 03:51:52 AM »

If Levin retires Gary Peters would be the best candidate the Democrats have. He defeated Knollenberg in the old 9th district of Suburban Oakland county in 2008 and held on barely in 2010. He actually will represent one of the majority black districts in January due to redistricting. He defeated incumbent Hansen Clarke. The Republicans don't have a really good candidate and Michigan is pretty Democratic. It takes a strong republican year to elect a republican to the senate. The last republicans elected to the senate were elected in 1994(Abraham), 1966(Griffin) and reelected 1972. Democrats were lucky no Michigan senator was up for reelection in 2010. I wouldn't worry too much Democrats if Levin retires.
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« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2012, 04:03:31 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2012, 04:06:08 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Looking at the 2014 elections, I don't see that many seats switching hands.

Maybe something like:
Pryor wins if he runs, otherwise R+1
Begich and Hagen perhaps barely win
Republicans win LA and WV
VA is only competitive if Warner doesn't run

Democrats pick up Maine but nothing else
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2012, 07:04:04 AM »

Looking at the 2014 elections, I don't see that many seats switching hands.

Maybe something like:
Pryor wins if he runs, otherwise R+1
Begich and Hagen perhaps barely win
Republicans win LA and WV
VA is only competitive if Warner doesn't run

Democrats pick up Maine but nothing else


If Collins were to retire,  Maine would be an almost certain Dem pickup no matter what the environment.  Maine is much more liberal than New Hampshire and Republicans dont have another Kelly Ayotte in Maine. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2012, 09:03:32 AM »

How is Tim Johnson's health?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2012, 06:58:59 PM »

Indeed, it would take a wave of 2010 proportions to swing the Senate to the GOP in 2014 (actually, R+6 is exactly what it's needed, considering a tie goes to Biden). Far from impossible, of course, but that's a reasonably good prospect.

How many people on, say, August 2010, would have bet that the Senate had any chance to stay democratic after 2014? Cheesy
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nclib
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« Reply #41 on: November 11, 2012, 07:12:02 PM »

It's a tough map for the Dems, even without taking into consideration retirements, there are 7 Romney Dems up (MT, SD, AK, LA, AR, WV, NC) and only one Obama Repub (ME). Then again the 2012 map appeared to be awful for Dems.
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« Reply #42 on: November 11, 2012, 07:16:23 PM »

If Cochran doesn't retire, look for a strong primary challenger. Also look for the Democrats not to have a remotely legitimate nominee, thus sending an Akin/Murdock type to Washington.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #43 on: November 11, 2012, 07:22:32 PM »

It's a tough map for the Dems, even without taking into consideration retirements, there are 7 Romney Dems up (MT, SD, AK, LA, AR, WV, NC) and only one Obama Repub (ME). Then again the 2012 map appeared to be awful for Dems.

Yeah, Im assuming the playing field will pretty much be the Romney-Dem states and probably Shaheen in New Hampshire absent retirements in places like Iowa and Michigan.  The Udalls, Merkley, and Franken will probably be fine unless the environment turns really toxic for Dems, which is unlikely since they dont control the House and cant pass all of the things that fired up the GOP base and turned independents against them in 2009 and 2010.  

Republicans would probably need a pretty good opponent to beat Baucus and would probably need Moore-Capito to beat Rockefeller.  They dont have anybody that great in North Carolina.  McHenry might try, but he doesnt strike me as the type that would have much appeal beyond the Republican base.  

Republicans have a menu of candidates in Louisiana and obviously have Griffin in Arkansas.  Maybe Parnell in Alaska?
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #44 on: November 11, 2012, 07:42:15 PM »

I don't think Durbin's going to retire.  He's only in his third term.  I would love to see Levin retire, but I have a feeling that he's only going to leave the Senate on a stretcher.  Lautenberg and Rockefeller might, but I could see them both going for another term.  Those are my best guesses.
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morgieb
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« Reply #45 on: November 11, 2012, 07:46:06 PM »

Article worth reading about potential retirements here.
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Vosem
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« Reply #46 on: November 11, 2012, 08:01:45 PM »

My thoughts.

Dem targets:

Maine is the only one, and that only works if Collins retires. (If Collins does retire, the Dem primary will be pretty lively; Baldacci, Michaud, and Pingree all declared for Snowe's seat before they realized King was running, and in a Democratic midterm Republicans are not to be counted out in Maine either.) No way is McConnell going down in Obama midterm -- that's a decoy.

Rep targets:

Alaska -- Probably outright leans Republican. I've read Parnell may run, and even if he doesn't, the Republicans do have a bench around here that rarely sees an opportunity for U.S. Congress.

Oregon -- Underestimated, imo. Greg Walden, if he runs, would be favored outright to beat Merkley, and a different competent candidate (Allen Alley comes to mind) would certainly be able to give Merkley a run for his money.

Montana -- Overestimated. Baucus has been around for a long time and his approval ratings have recovered back to positives since their nadir in 2010. Plus Montana Repubs have a sucky bench.

South Dakota -- Johnson's probably out. Whether or not that's the case, Rounds is probably in.

Colorado -- Republicans may make a play for this one (Cory Gardner and Jane Norton are apparently both interested and both would be legitimate challengers), but Udall definitely starts off favored.

Louisiana -- Bill Cassidy wants to challenge Landrieu. In today's Louisiana he may start off favored.

Arkansas -- Tim Griffin wants a promotion to the Senate. Pryor is vulnerable (not like Begich or Landrieu, though), but some think he may want to run for the statehouse, in which case Halter or Dustin McDaniel is the best Democratic bet.

Minnesota -- Way overrated. Who do Republicans have to beat Franken with? Nobody. (OK, maybe Paulsen. But that's doubtful).

Iowa -- Harkin may retire, and even if he doesn't Tom Latham would be a formidable challenger. If he does, Bruce Braley is favored for the D nomination. I doubt Latham runs against Harkin (Republicans do have a strong bench here and Harkin won't be allowed reelection without a fight), but sans Harkin he may run and he would be favored.

Illinois -- Durbin's probably retiring. If he does, he's safe. If he doesn't, the ambitious Republicans seem to be gravitating toward the gubernatorial race, so this one's probably right out the window.

Michigan -- Levin's safe if he runs again, which I think is more likely than not. If he retires, Republicans have a stronger bench than Democrats in this state, but it leans Democratic, so it likely depends on the national climate. The strongest Republican who comes to mind is state Attorney General Bill Schuette (who lost to Levin way, way back in 1990), but Schuette is rumored to be interested in the Governor's Mansion, as rumor is Snyder won't seek reelection. (All of this is rumor). I guess Jennifer Granholm would be a favorite if she wanted the Democratic nomination in the event of a Levin retirement, as she's the most prominent MI Dem.

North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

Virginia -- If Warner runs for reelection, as is likeliest, this is safe Democratic. If he doesn't, McDonnell is term-limited out in 2013 and would probably start as the favorite for a Senate seat.

West Virginia -- Considering the rightward swing in 2012 and the fact that Rockefeller is very likely retiring, this is probably a likelier Republican pickup than most realize. Certainly, Moore-Capito has this in the bag if she wants it, but I think a lesser Republican, like David McKinley, Betty Ireland, Bill Maloney, or maybe even John Raese would be favored. Some Democratic bench people include Carte Goodwin, Jeff Kessler, John Perdue, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson.

New Jersey -- If Lautenberg dies I suppose a Christie appointee could win. Otherwise, safe D.

Massachusetts -- If Kerry resigns and Brown wins the special election Brown starts off favored for reelection. Under any scenario with Kerry or without Brown, safe D.

New Hampshire -- Probably leans D. Shaheen is pretty popular and Republicans have better targets. (Rumor on The Fix is that Sununu wants a comeback, but that was the rumor in 2010 and 2012 too and it didn't happen.) Shaheen is apparently on retirement watch; if she does retire Carol Shea-Porter is favored for the Democratic nomination.

...Yeah. Republicans have way more possible targets than Dems do. You can argue that was the case in 2012 as well, but it's significantly worse in 2014. To the extent I think they are favored to take the Senate in 2014. (Note: that's not a prediction (it's too early to be making predictions); just a statement that I think in a neutral political environment Republicans would gain the necessary 6 seats to retake the Senate.)



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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #47 on: November 11, 2012, 09:03:00 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2012, 09:07:30 PM by Mr.Phips »

My thoughts.

Dem targets:

Maine is the only one, and that only works if Collins retires. (If Collins does retire, the Dem primary will be pretty lively; Baldacci, Michaud, and Pingree all declared for Snowe's seat before they realized King was running, and in a Democratic midterm Republicans are not to be counted out in Maine either.) No way is McConnell going down in Obama midterm -- that's a decoy.

Rep targets:

Alaska -- Probably outright leans Republican. I've read Parnell may run, and even if he doesn't, the Republicans do have a bench around here that rarely sees an opportunity for U.S. Congress.

Oregon -- Underestimated, imo. Greg Walden, if he runs, would be favored outright to beat Merkley, and a different competent candidate (Allen Alley comes to mind) would certainly be able to give Merkley a run for his money.

Montana -- Overestimated. Baucus has been around for a long time and his approval ratings have recovered back to positives since their nadir in 2010. Plus Montana Repubs have a sucky bench.

South Dakota -- Johnson's probably out. Whether or not that's the case, Rounds is probably in.

Colorado -- Republicans may make a play for this one (Cory Gardner and Jane Norton are apparently both interested and both would be legitimate challengers), but Udall definitely starts off favored.

Louisiana -- Bill Cassidy wants to challenge Landrieu. In today's Louisiana he may start off favored.

Arkansas -- Tim Griffin wants a promotion to the Senate. Pryor is vulnerable (not like Begich or Landrieu, though), but some think he may want to run for the statehouse, in which case Halter or Dustin McDaniel is the best Democratic bet.

Minnesota -- Way overrated. Who do Republicans have to beat Franken with? Nobody. (OK, maybe Paulsen. But that's doubtful).

Iowa -- Harkin may retire, and even if he doesn't Tom Latham would be a formidable challenger. If he does, Bruce Braley is favored for the D nomination. I doubt Latham runs against Harkin (Republicans do have a strong bench here and Harkin won't be allowed reelection without a fight), but sans Harkin he may run and he would be favored.

Illinois -- Durbin's probably retiring. If he does, he's safe. If he doesn't, the ambitious Republicans seem to be gravitating toward the gubernatorial race, so this one's probably right out the window.

Michigan -- Levin's safe if he runs again, which I think is more likely than not. If he retires, Republicans have a stronger bench than Democrats in this state, but it leans Democratic, so it likely depends on the national climate. The strongest Republican who comes to mind is state Attorney General Bill Schuette (who lost to Levin way, way back in 1990), but Schuette is rumored to be interested in the Governor's Mansion, as rumor is Snyder won't seek reelection. (All of this is rumor). I guess Jennifer Granholm would be a favorite if she wanted the Democratic nomination in the event of a Levin retirement, as she's the most prominent MI Dem.

North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

Virginia -- If Warner runs for reelection, as is likeliest, this is safe Democratic. If he doesn't, McDonnell is term-limited out in 2013 and would probably start as the favorite for a Senate seat.

West Virginia -- Considering the rightward swing in 2012 and the fact that Rockefeller is very likely retiring, this is probably a likelier Republican pickup than most realize. Certainly, Moore-Capito has this in the bag if she wants it, but I think a lesser Republican, like David McKinley, Betty Ireland, Bill Maloney, or maybe even John Raese would be favored. Some Democratic bench people include Carte Goodwin, Jeff Kessler, John Perdue, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson.

New Jersey -- If Lautenberg dies I suppose a Christie appointee could win. Otherwise, safe D.

Massachusetts -- If Kerry resigns and Brown wins the special election Brown starts off favored for reelection. Under any scenario with Kerry or without Brown, safe D.

New Hampshire -- Probably leans D. Shaheen is pretty popular and Republicans have better targets. (Rumor on The Fix is that Sununu wants a comeback, but that was the rumor in 2010 and 2012 too and it didn't happen.) Shaheen is apparently on retirement watch; if she does retire Carol Shea-Porter is favored for the Democratic nomination.

...Yeah. Republicans have way more possible targets than Dems do. You can argue that was the case in 2012 as well, but it's significantly worse in 2014. To the extent I think they are favored to take the Senate in 2014. (Note: that's not a prediction (it's too early to be making predictions); just a statement that I think in a neutral political environment Republicans would gain the necessary 6 seats to retake the Senate.)





Walden is way too far to the right to win a statewide race in Oregon.  Also, he is almost certain to become NRCC chairman.  You cant really have that job and run for another office.  

Harkin has had four very tough races in a row and knows exactly how to win a tough race.  He faced Jepsen in 1984 and walloped him, Tauke in 1990 and beat him by eight points, Lightfoot in 1996 and beat him.  In 2002, Republicans thought they had the perfect challenger to him in Greg Ganske and even in a slightly down year for Democrats, he won by 10 points.  This guy is a pitbull.  

Ill give you Louisana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Alaska, and possibly Arkansas.  That's just five seats and Republicans need six. 
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Vosem
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« Reply #48 on: November 11, 2012, 09:39:25 PM »

Those 5 are the obvious ones, but, probability. There's just so many possible Democratic targets that I think it's there's a greater than 75% chance that at least 1 of Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, and New Hampshire flip, and when you add the one to your 5 that's a majority. There's literally just so many options and certain pickups and possible longshots for the Republicans, and than the Democrats have one massively unlikely longshot and another race where they have to hope the incumbent retires, and that's it, and on top of that you will probably have some sort of six-year itch. I think it's more likely than not some combination of 6 seats somewhere flips. (I wonder if 2014 is shaping up to be a reverse 1986, with strong Republican gains in the Senate but also strong Democratic gains in the different gubernatorial mansions -- if you continue the analogy, you get weak Republican gains in the House and Republicans taking control of the Senate; those three all sound about right).
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« Reply #49 on: November 11, 2012, 09:48:09 PM »

Why does this sound familiar...
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