Obama's 2nd term agenda... what is it, and how likely is it?

[Blue3]

The way I see it... after reading through the Democratic Party platform, the American Jobs Act outline, and listening to Obama's speeches and interviews...



The To-Do List:

* "Grand Bargain" on tax/entitlement reform, perhaps from deal on "fiscal cliff" this winter
=> this is a policy MUST and very likely
(I can also provide an outline of his proposals, if any asks)

* Immigration Reform
=> this is a political MUST for both sides and very likely

* Infrastructure investments
=> this is somewhat likely, and I'd argue essential for economic growth (see AJA outline for details... it totals up to about $105b IIRC)

* General Government Reform
=> bipartisan concern, some form of this is very likely

* Pass ENDA (& repeal DOMA if SCOTUS doesn't overturn it)
=> I'm not sure how likely this is... but the GOP may want to allow enough of their members to go along in order to win back some minorities and the Generation Y vote

* Afghanistan withdrawal
=> this is a MUST and a near-certainty

* Syria conclusion
=> some form of this is likely

* prevention of Iran getting nukes
=> this will be very high on the foreign-policy agenda

* POSSIBLY Israeli-Arab peace
=> hey, we can dream, can't we? things that seemed impossible once have happened before

* POSSIBLY something on marijuana
=> Obama and the Democrats must see the trend on this, and the popularity with their base and the Generation Y vote, and the support of libertarians and moderates. I'm not expecting nationwide legalization, but maybe more flexibility for the states

* POSSIBLY something on civil liberties
=> maybe not likely, but not impossible, and I think the Democratic base and some Republicans will begin to pressure Obama on this




So, what do you think President Obama's 2nd term agenda is? And how likely is each item?

[© tweed]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

[Lief 🗽]

If there are infrastructure investments or something else stimulus-y, they'll likely be part of the "fiscal cliff" deal.

[Blue3]

If there are infrastructure investments or something else stimulus-y, they'll likely be part of the "fiscal cliff" deal.

I was thinking/hoping that too

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about.

[Blue3]

Does everyone else think my list, and my take on the probability of each item passing, is probably correct?

I had hoped this would spark a discussion...

[anvi]

I think items 1, 2 and 6 on your list are, in some form or another, fairly likely.  

Could you say more about what you mean by "General Government Reform" in item 4, as I'm not sure what it means and so can't judge its likelihood.  

Anything new on the front of education policy you can envision?

[Mr. Morden]

Softening of the embargo on Cuba, and an end to the travel ban.

We can dream, can't we?

[courts]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

you forgot start a new war. that's also high on the priority list. also probably something about guest workers, we need more serfs.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Attempt immigration reform as Republican leadership pivots towards the center -> immigration reform dies a quick death as conservative grassroots forces rebel en masse again and threaten to primary any Republican who votes in favor. This immigration reform bill is somewhat unpopular with the public though tremendously popular among the browns.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Obama direct the Justice Department to take a more federalist approach to state marijuana laws in response to Washington and Colorado; or at least, not to interfere too much with those two states specifically. Support for national decriminalization is probably something the next wave of Democratic presidential candidates will end up supporting, similar to how it was only a short matter of time for gay marriage to become the de-facto Democratic position.

I also see some sort of attempt at immigration but don't expect it to pass. Possibly a watered down version of the DREAM Act on the side, but I doubt it.

[CatoMinor]

- O.K. more drone bombing of muslim civilians. (49 civilians for every 1 known terrorist)
- Continue expansion of war on medicinal cannabis users
- Find new and creative ways to assault civil liberties, the old ways of Bush just won't cut it anymore, we have to move forward you know.
- Work on immigration reform while setting records for deportations.
- Keep Gitmo open.
- Stimulate the aggregate demand of various other countries by blowing up their windows (among other things.)
- Celebrate getting away with above mentioned items becuase he has a D next to his name so his "progressive base" will vote Democratic anyways just to keep those ebul rethuglicans out.

[© tweed]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

you forgot start a new war. that's also high on the priority list. also probably something about guest workers, we need more serfs.

all that is needed for that is inaction: fail to pass comprehensive immigration reform (though something may be passed that is called "comprehensive immigration reform")

[Grumpier Than Thou]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

[opebo]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about.

What Tweed describes is the agenda of capital, Starwatcher - in other words the agenda of power.  It is nice to feel good about the recent election, but the fact remains it is still a capitalist country.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

Huh... I get that Tweed is saying this, because he's, well, Tweed. (Alternate phrasing not used due to probability of infraction points)

But you are a Romney/Ryan supporter. You have no business yammering about 'continuing to transfer wealth to the top 1%' or, to a lesser degree, the other points.

[© tweed]

But you are a Romney/Ryan supporter. You have no business yammering about 'continuing to transfer wealth to the top 1%' or, to a lesser degree, the other points.

sure he does -- the difference being he is likely to support such things.

[Mr.Phips]

Absolutely nothing will happen.  Obama's second term is going to look very much like Clinton's second term, absent the scandals. 

[courts]

Attempt immigration reform as Republican leadership pivots towards the center -> immigration reform dies a quick death as conservative grassroots forces rebel en masse again and threaten to primary any Republican who votes in favor. This immigration reform bill is somewhat unpopular with the public though tremendously popular among the browns.

it's actually kind of hilarious. republicans have created a situation where they literally can not win. i mean, let's look at their options:

1. full teabagger: oppose amnesty and maintain current positions, or move more towards some other even less viable variety of movement conservatism. vanish as a national party by the 2020s due to demographics.
2. hannity sombrero option (aka the wall street journal shuffle): pass amnesty but don't do anything different policy wise. alienate grass roots. fail to gain hispanics, who are not stupid enough to think anything else has changed or it wasn't obama who signed this into law.
3. me too option: pass amnesty and concede on other issues. die off or become unrecognizable.

the country might swing back towards them in 2016 maybe, particularly if this is going where i think it is, but in the long run its over. all because of their staggering levels of greed and hypocrisy. good riddance.

[Blue3]

Well, the 113th Congress begins today, even if Obama's 2nd term technically begins on Inauguration Day on Monday, January 21st in a little over two weeks.
 
We didn't get a big Tax & Entitlement Reform deal (along with permanent spending cuts, reform of the general government bureaucracy, and infastructure investment) from the Fiscal Cliff, but there's still the possibility of that in a few months (though it will be much harder for Democrats to accept).
 
Immigration Reform is still a top priority, and Gun Violence Prevention can now be added to the list after the elementary school shooting in Sandy Hook, CT.

Leader Reid is also expected to act and pursue some form of Filibuster Reform.
 
And there's still several issues and crises in the Middle East to worry about.



 How do people predict the 2nd term will go?

I think items 1, 2 and 6 on your list are, in some form or another, fairly likely. 

Could you say more about what you mean by "General Government Reform" in item 4, as I'm not sure what it means and so can't judge its likelihood. 

Anything new on the front of education policy you can envision?

By "general government reform" I just meant reforming the bureaucracy, restructuring and streamlining it, not tied to any particular policy (like immigration/healthcare/etc) and not tied to the legislative process (like filibuster reform), just how the executive branch is structured and works. Republians have said they wanted this for years, and Obama has signalled he wants it too in previous SOTU's.

I really can't say what more can happen right now on education. NCLB needed reform, but Obama has managed to do that through executive power instead of legsilative mandate. His "Race to the Top" program is very popular among the states and likely to continue. I don't see what more can be done. Can you think of anything new that can happen?

I wouldn't be too surprised to see Obama direct the Justice Department to take a more federalist approach to state marijuana laws in response to Washington and Colorado; or at least, not to interfere too much with those two states specifically. Support for national decriminalization is probably something the next wave of Democratic presidential candidates will end up supporting, similar to how it was only a short matter of time for gay marriage to become the de-facto Democratic position.

I also see some sort of attempt at immigration but don't expect it to pass. Possibly a watered down version of the DREAM Act on the side, but I doubt it.

I hope you're right about them taking a more federalist approach on the marijuana laws.

As for immigration... the DREAM Act *is* the watered-down version of Immigration reform. After the election, it seems that comprehensive Immigration reform is on the table again.

Attempt immigration reform as Republican leadership pivots towards the center -> immigration reform dies a quick death as conservative grassroots forces rebel en masse again and threaten to primary any Republican who votes in favor. This immigration reform bill is somewhat unpopular with the public though tremendously popular among the browns.

it's actually kind of hilarious. republicans have created a situation where they literally can not win. i mean, let's look at their options:

1. full teabagger: oppose amnesty and maintain current positions, or move more towards some other even less viable variety of movement conservatism. vanish as a national party by the 2020s due to demographics.
2. hannity sombrero option (aka the wall street journal shuffle): pass amnesty but don't do anything different policy wise. alienate grass roots. fail to gain hispanics, who are not stupid enough to think anything else has changed or it wasn't obama who signed this into law.
3. me too option: pass amnesty and concede on other issues. die off or become unrecognizable.

the country might swing back towards them in 2016 maybe, particularly if this is going where i think it is, but in the long run its over. all because of their staggering levels of greed and hypocrisy. good riddance.

Yeah, their best chance was to go along with Bush's 2006 immigration reform.

They absolutely have to give on immigration reform now. Perhaps they can just insist it happens along with tighter border security?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Caving, Part II?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obama's 2012 agenda was to raise the top income tax rate to 39.6%. He's happy now, he's gotten his little tax hike on the well off, even if that means the Democrats got screwed over on everything else! Now he can safely regain his lame duck status and go on vacation while the House GOP restlessly f**ks America the hard way.

[courts]

Yeah, their best chance was to go along with Bush's 2006 immigration reform.

They absolutely have to give on immigration reform now. Perhaps they can just insist it happens along with tighter border security?

the only way that would work in terms of gaining minority voters is if they totally overhauled the party. talking points about 'small government,' socialized medicine obamascare, tax cuts, etc. are never going to appeal to the majority of minorities for obvious reasons (incidentally, most of the same reasons i laugh at actual white supremacists). but that sort of re-alignment would still mean electoral suicide anyway at least in the short term.

[Blue3]

*sigh*

Anyways...


What does everything think President Obama still needs to push for?

My opinion:

1. The Economy
 ===> a. Infrastructure (investing in: a national infrastructure bank, transportation, schools, housing, electric, water... such as the proposals included in the American Jobs Act... a one-time $100-200b package)
 ===> b. Minimum Wage Hike to at least $10.10/hour and index it to inflation (and possibly other labor laws, like mandatory paid leave time for vacations/sickness/parenthood and more for childcare services)
 ===> c. Tax Reform (eliminate unfair deductions/credits that only benefit the wealthy... eliminate tax breaks and subsidies for Big Oil, for unhealthy foods, and for U.S. companies that ship jobs overseas... cap the mortgage interest deduction and limit it to one residency... perhaps creating a 1% financial transaction tax rate and a minimum effective 30% tax rate for millionaires... maybe even have pre-filled-out tax forms)
 ===> d. Entitlement Reform (decrease the cost of Medicare by actually decreasing the cost of healthcare, by allowing imported drugs, allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower drug prices, prevent drug companies from blocking generic drugs, medical malpractice reform... as well as eliminating the payroll tax cap so the wealthy pay more into Social Security

2. Comprehensive Immigration Reform

3. End the War in Afghanistan

4. Close Guantanamo's prison, with fair trials or releases for all those imprisoned there

5. Pass ENDA, perhaps extended to cover housing/medicine/adoption too


(I'd also like to see an end to the War on Drugs, re-strengthen our Civil Liberties, something done on Education, expand the AmeriCorps, Government Reform, and stronger Foreign Policy objectives & methods... but I'd like to be at least 1% realistic)

[IceSpear]

Well, Obama is now a lame duck. His agenda should be vetoing the crazy the legislation the House (and possibly Senate) passes. The agenda for Democrats now should be to win back the House (and possibly Senate, pending 2014) for President Clinton.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

destroy SS and Medicare, continue erosion of due process and civil liberties, continue to transfer wealth to "top 1%", continue to load debt onto students and consumers.

This post looks far more delusional in retrospect than the posts of left-liberals.