Your biggest state surprises?

[retromike22]

What were your biggest surprises? Whether a state's result, or its margin, or its margin compared with other states?

For me:

1. Georgia was closer than Missouri.
2. Arizona was +11 Romney, I thought it would be narrower.
3. The number of 60%+ Romney states, especially Kentucky and West Virginia.
4. Virginia was more Democratic than Ohio.

[Skill and Chance]

1. Mississippi and Louisiana swing to Obama
2. Virginia voting left of the nation
3. Florida actually ends up very close
4. Ohio actually ends up very close
5. Alaska, it hasn't been that close in decades and the R ticket was pretty libertarian this year

Colorado wasn't surprising in light of the polling issues in 2008 and 2010 there.  Obama +3.0 in Virginia really was.
 

[The Free North]

^ I would hardly describe Romney/Ryan as 'libertarian'

[RedPrometheus]

Obama winning Florida (although after it was so close in the beginning I wasn't terribly surprised)
North Carolina being so close
Ohio being so close (I expected a larger Obama victory margin)
Colorado being not close at all

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

1. Holy crap, West Virginia!
2. Romney's bad performance in New England.
3. Obama skyrocketing in the Black Belt even more.
4. Alaska was...kind of close?
5. Tennessee defied the polls and voted almost 60% for Mitt.

[anvi]

I was trying to keep track of things fairly closely till election day, including both poll-watching and keeping an eye on early voting.  Two states surprised me, one mildly and one quite a bit.  The mild surprise was Colorado.  I know Obama had been performing well in Colorado polls for a few weeks before Tuesday, but the early voting (which made up 68% of the 2008 electorate) looked promising for Romney, and because I've at least read in several places that the Hispanic vote has underperformed in Colorado for the last two cycles, I didn't think Obama would make up the gap in the end.  But the real surprise to me was Florida.  Romney's aggregate performance in good polls had him, by my calculations, outpacing the president by a sliver, and the early voting reports seemed to indicate Romney was doing well in the I-4 corridor too.  These were my two errant calls in the end.  So, there are two lessons for me in this.  The first is that it's not wise to underestimate the Obama turnout machine.  The second is that I'm not as good as I should be at math.

[freefair]

I did think that MASS would swing about 4% towards Romney. How innacurate that was!

[opebo]

VA, CO, NH to the good
OH to the bad - was too close.

These weren't really big, just small surprises.  For me the big surprises were on the Senate side - Heitkamp and Tester, and maybe the margin of Baldwin and Warren.

[Beet]

Among the battlegrounds, Florida is the biggest surprise by a large margin. By 66-18 people predicted Romney would win Florida. This is despite a number of polls showing Florida was a 1 point race. For some reason, even though the polls were showing Florida a dead heat, most refused to believe it. So it's more of a surprise vis-a-vis the conventional wisdom than the polls, per se.

[dspNY]

Obama winning Florida, even though Nate Silver predicted it; public perception before the election showed Obama losing there

Virginia was to the left of Ohio for the 2nd straight election

Romney winning Arizona by more than McCain

Missouri going to Romney by double digits; it was redder than Georgia

Georgia staying in single digits; we should start the process of turning GA into another NC by making the Repubs fight for it every cycle

[DemPGH]

Agree on FL; as to GA, that's interesting for future consideration. Arizona has not moved an inch - it was predicted to become a swing state, it has not, and it almost assuredly will not. But anything in the Southeast that is closer to Obama or the Dems than expected is a pleasant surprise and needs to be strongly considered for a future push.

[Likely Voter]

We were all talking about the NV+WI+OH firewall as it 3 states I (and others) were sure would be on Obama's side even if Romney pulled to a PV tie or even a bit ahead. It turns out that OH ended up on the other side of that line but that CO, IA, NH were all part of the firewall even though they looked shakier.

So the question is: was OH polling wrong the whole time or did Romney have a last minute surge?

[dspNY]

We were all talking about the NV+WI+OH firewall as it 3 states I (and others) were sure would be on Obama's side even if Romney pulled to a PV tie or even a bit ahead. It turns out that OH ended up on the other side of that line but that CO, IA, NH were all part of the firewall even though they looked shakier.

So the question is: was OH polling wrong the whole time or did Romney have a last minute surge?

The Ohio result isn't final...it seems like 9-10% of the ballots are still to be counted (the provisionals), which tend to lean heavily Dem. So Ohio may be to the left of the national vote after all the dust settles

[Skill and Chance]

Agree on FL; as to GA, that's interesting for future consideration. Arizona has not moved an inch - it was predicted to become a swing state, it has not, and it almost assuredly will not. But anything in the Southeast that is closer to Obama or the Dems than expected is a pleasant surprise and needs to be strongly considered for a future push.

Cheap. Solar. Power.  If that ever actually happens, AZ becomes the reverse WV.  Demographics alone won't do it, though.

[J. J.]

Florida.  I expected OH and VA to be close.

Among the battlegrounds, Florida is the biggest surprise by a large margin. By 66-18 people predicted Romney would win Florida. This is despite a number of polls showing Florida was a 1 point race. For some reason, even though the polls were showing Florida a dead heat, most refused to believe it. So it's more of a surprise vis-a-vis the conventional wisdom than the polls, per se.

A good part of that was Mason-Dixson. 

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

There weren't too many surprises for me.  I knew my call of VA for Romney was a gutsy one, so I guess my biggest "surprise" was Florida going for Obama, although it wasn't really a surprise.

[zorkpolitics]

Romney losing FL
OH being closer than VA

[Oakvale]

OH being closer than VA

It probably won't be once all the ballots are counted.

[LastVoter]

Alaska and West Virginia.
Virginia wasn't a surprise at all to me, I actually thought that Obama might be able to win it by as much as +5(I think this was his true firewall state).

[BaldEagle1991]

North Carolina was so close

So far that's it. Everything else I expected.

[GOP732]

Obama getting 48% of Cuban Americans in Florida.

[old timey villain]

North Carolina and Georgia were the weakest red states, although I wasn't really surprised by that, but some thought NC and Georgia (and VA) would return to 2004 margins. It didn't happen. The Democrats should really continue to push for the south Atlantic.

[Devils30]

1. Obama carrying FL despite every poll saying he wouldnt
2. Obama improving on his 2008 numbers in NJ
3. Romney absolutely destroyed Obama in coal country in OH, PA, VA but yet couldnt flip a single one.
4. General trend but rich suburbs stick with Obama

[Skill and Chance]

1. Obama carrying FL despite every poll saying he wouldnt
2. Obama improving on his 2008 numbers in NJ
3. Romney absolutely destroyed Obama in coal country in OH, PA, VA but yet couldnt flip a single one.
4. General trend but rich suburbs stick with Obama

Yes, I think one of the biggest takeaways is that coal is now completely irrelevant electorally, save for WV, KY and WY statewide races.  There just aren't enough votes left in those areas to change anything nationally.

[Reds4]

I was surprised at Obama's margin of victory in Iowa.. I thought it would be an extremely close state due to the demographics, but he picked up a big win. Also, definitely surprised with Florida. On the other side, I was surprised how easily Romney won in Arizona.